Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
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2024 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or TV Movie
Courtesy of HBO
Weekly Commentary (Updated: June 14, 2024): We could end up with actress (limited) lineup of all previous Oscar winners.
The merge of limited series and television movie performances was expected to create more opportunities for nominees, but that hasn’t panned out, especially in the leading races. This year, the lead actress category features 62 contenders, down from 96 in 2023 and 92 in 2022. The competition is fierce, with Academy Award winners Jodie Foster (“True Detective: Night Country”), Nicole Kidman (“Expats”), Brie Larson (“Lessons in Chemistry”), Kate Winslet (“The Regime”), Jessica Lange (“The Great Lillian Hall”) and Julianne Moore (“Mary & George”) in the mix. And now, with the shocking surprise of only five slots available, predicting the lineup feels nearly impossible.
Outside of the beloved performers are popular figures in the Emmys space. One standout contender is Colombian star Sofia Vergara, who plays the infamous drug lord Griselda Blanco in Netflix’s hit miniseries “Griselda.” If nominated, she would be only the second Latina to receive a nod in this category, following Anya Taylor-Joy (of Argentinian descent) for “The Queen’s Gambit” in 2021. As an executive producer on “Griselda,” Vergara could also become the second Latina producer nominated in this category, after Celia D. Costas for “Angels in America” in 2004. Costas remains the only Latina to win as a producer in any top series category.
To date, only one Latina has won an Emmy in a major acting category: America Ferrera, who took home the award for lead comedy actress in 2007 for “Ugly Betty.” With four previous Emmy nominations for her role as Gloria Delgado in “Modern Family,” Vergara has yet to win. Could this finally be her year?
Only one Latin woman won an Emmy across all major acting categories —America Ferrera (“Ugly Betty”) as lead comedy actress in 2007. Vergara has four previous Emmy bids for her iconic role as Gloria Delgado in ABC’s “Modern Family,” but she’s yet to win a statuette. Could it finally be her time? It’ll be tough for her, as she faces presumed frontrunner Jodie Foster for her work in “True Detective: Night Country” and many other former nominees and winners such as Juno Temple (“Fargo”) and Kate Winslet (“The Regime”).
There are also former Emmy nominees and winners in the mix, including Juno Temple from FX’s “Fargo,” who is the season’s shining star but could be vulnerable for recognition. The same goes for her network counterparts Naomi Watts, who leads the charge for Ryan Murphy’s “Feud: Capote vs. the Swans” and Emma Corrin, who captivates in “A Murder at the End of the World.”
Combing through the Emmy ballots will reveal surprising names you weren’t aware were up for consideration. I’d put Candace Cameron Bure (“My Christmas Hero”), Melissa Joan Hart (“The Bad Guardian”) and Jamie Lynn Spears (“Zoey 102”) under that labeling. In addition to Kara Young, who was submitted in the lead race for the recording of her Broadway show “Purlie Victorious: A Non-Confederate Romp Through the Cotton Patch,” which co-stars Leslie Odom Jr. However, Young is nominated for a Tony Award as a featured actress in a play this weekend (which she might win). What an interesting development that would be.
Nominations-round voting is open from June 13 and closes on June 24 at 10:00 p.m. PT. Voting for peer group-specific top ten round panels (if applicable) takes place between June 28 and July 8. The Emmy nominations will be announced on July 17. The Creative Arts and Governors Gala ceremonies will occur over two nights on Sept. 7-8. The 76th Primetime Emmy Awards will air on ABC on Sunday, Sept. 15.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Primetime Emmy predictions in the major categories.