Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
2023 Oscars Predictions:
Best Animated Feature
Jessica Drew (Issa Rae) and Miguel Oý Hara (Oscar Isaac) in Columbia Pictures and Sony Pictures Animationsý SPIDER-MANý: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE.
Sony Pictures
Weekly Commentary (Updated Dec. 10, 2023): It’s getting interesting the animated feature race. “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” remains the early favorite, especially after a win from the National Board of Review. Interestingly, Hayao Miyazaki’s “The Boy and the Heron” was named among the group’s 10 best movies of the year.
Miyazaki’s film is on a roll with wins from New York and L.A. Film Critics. It’s gaining momentum with the coming-of-age story earning $12.8 million in its opening weekend and becoming the first original anime production to top the domestic box office.
Long before the Academy created a category for animated feature, LAFCA has been recognizing the medium since 1989. Only one LAFCA pick in the expanded era (post-2009) has missed an Oscar nomination: “Your Name” (2016). Four of the LAFCA picks became Oscar winners – “Toy Story 3” (2010), “Rango” (2011), “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse” (2018), and “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” (2022).
Neon’s “Robot Dreams” could be a dark horse to land a spot, coming after the runner-up prize in Los Angeles.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.
The submission deadline for general categories is Nov. 15, 2023. The preliminary shortlist for eight categories is from Dec. 14-18, with the results announcement dropping on Dec. 21. The Oscar nomination period will run from Jan. 11-16, 2024, with the official nominees named on Jan. 23.
The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10.
Listed producer credits are not final, and all releases are subject to change. The Academy ultimately determines the official nominees.
And the Predicted Nominees Are:
- “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures)
Joaquim Dos Santos, Kemp Powers, Justin K. Thompson (directors), Avi Arad, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, Amy Pascal, Christina Steinberg (producers) - “The Boy and the Heron” (GKids/Toho)
Hayao Miyazaki (director), Toshio Suzuki (producer) - “Elemental” (Pixar)
Peter Sohn (director), Denise Ream (producer) - “Nimona” (Netflix)
Nick Bruno, Troy Quane (directors), Roy Lee, Karen Ann Ryan (producers) - “Robot Dreams” (Neon)
Pablo Berger (director, producer), Ibon Cormenzana, Ignasi Estapé, Sandra Tapia Díaz, Angel Durández (producers)
Next in Line
- “Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget” (Netflix)
Sam Fell (director), Steve Pegram, Leyla Hobart (producers) - “Wish” (Walt Disney Pictures)
Chris Buck, Fawn Veerasunthorn (directors), Peter Del Vecho, Juan Pablo Reyes Lancaster-Jones (producers) - “Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem” (Paramount Pictures)
Jeff Rowe (director), Seth Rogen, Evan Goldberg, Kevin Eastman (producers) - “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” (Illumination)
Aaron Horvath, Michael Jelenic (directors), Chris Meledandri, Shigeru Miyamoto (producers) - “Leo” (Netflix)
Robert Marianetti, Robert Smigel, David Wachtenheim (directors), Adam Sandler (producer)
Other Top-Tier Possibilities
- “Trolls Band Together” (DreamWorks Animation)
Walt Dohrn (director), Gina Shay (producer) - “The Peasants” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Dorota Kobiela (director), Hugh Welchman (director, producer), Sean M. Bobbitt (producer)
- “Suzume” (Crunchyroll)
Makoto Shinkai (director), Kōichirō Itō, Genki Kawamura (producers) - “Migration” (Illumination)
Benjamin Renner (director), Chris Meledandri (producer) - “They Shot the Piano Player” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Javier Mariscal, Fernando Trueba (directors), Cristina Huete (producer)
All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized) **
- “The Amazing Maurice”
- “Blue Giant”
- “The Boy and the Heron”
- “Chang’an”
- “Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget”
- “Deep Sea”
- “Elemental”
- “Ernest & Celestine: A Trip to Gibberitia”
- “The First Slam Dunk”
- “The Inventor”
- “Leo”
- “Lonely Castle in the Mirror”
- “The Magician’s Elephant”
- “Migration”
- “Miraculous: Ladybug & Cat Noir, The Movie”
- “The Monkey King”
- “My Love Affair with Marriage”
- “Nimona”
- “Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie”
- “The Peasants”
- “Perlimps”
- “Robot Dreams”
- “Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken”
- “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
- “The Super Mario Bros. Movie”
- “Suzume”
- “Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem”
- “They Shot the Piano Player”
- “Titina”
- “Trolls Band Together”
- “Unicorn Wars”
- “Warrior King”
- “Wish”
** Denotes the potential for the film’s release date is not yet confirmed and could change.
2022 category winner: “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” (Netflix) — Guillermo del Toro, Mark Gustafson, Gary Ungar, Alex Bulkley
Oscars Predictions Categories
BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | BEST ACTOR | BEST ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT
About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.