Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
2024 Oscars Predictions:
Best Supporting Actor
THE HOLDOVERS, Dominic Sessa
©Focus Features/Courtesy Everett Collection
Weekly Commentary (Updated Jan. 8, 2024): A veteran awards strategist once told me, when it comes to Oscar voting: “it’s not about who gave the best performance. It’s about who they want to hear speak.”
That’s always sat in the back of my mind when assessing any Oscar race and who could win. While it’s obviously not gospel, and serves only as a theory, I couldn’t help but think of it while Robert Downey Jr. delivered his Golden Globe speech.
Downey Jr. has led in the precursor awards, and his victory for “Oppenheimer“ puts him in a good position to capture his first Oscar after two career noms: “Chaplin” (1992) and “Tropic Thunder” (2008). It would be an appropriate acknowledgment of Downey’s incredible career — one that had its fair share of dramatic ups and downs, triumphs and tragedies.
You can argue that Christopher Nolan’s speech after winning best director, helped RDJ’s winning chances as the filmmaker recalled when he accepted Heath Ledger’s posthumous Golden Globe award for “The Dark Knight” (2008), and locked eyes with Downey Jr, who was nominated for “Tropic Thunder.” Could “Iron Man” being headed towards winning his own piece of gold? It certainly looks possible, but things can change on a dime.
Ryan Gosling’s hilarious turn as Ken in “Barbie” feels like a slam dunk for either Critics Choice or SAG. And don’t discount “Poor Things” scene-stealers Willem Dafoe or Mark Ruffalo from earning the prize, provided they don’t cancel each other out.
Climbing the charts is Dominic Sessa, playing a student who is left behind for the Christmas holiday in “The Holdovers.” With his two co-stars Paul Giamatti and Da’Vine Joy Randolph near, or clearly in the front of their races, those type of contending performances can often pull a third nomination into the fold (i.e., Lucas Hedges in “Manchester by the Sea”).
If Sessa manages to pick up a SAG nom, in addition to showing up on the BAFTA longlist, he could be the fifth slot that many pundits have been trying to identify.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.
The submission deadline for general categories is Nov. 15, 2023. The preliminary shortlist for eight categories is from Dec. 14-18, with the results announcement dropping on Dec. 21. The Oscar nomination period will run from Jan. 11-16, 2024, with the official nominees named on Jan. 23.
The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10.
***The list below is not final and will be updated throughout the awards season.
And the Predicted Nominees Are:
- Charles Melton – “May December” (Netflix)
- Willem Dafoe — “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Sterling K. Brown — “American Fiction” (MGM)
- Paul Mescal — “All of Us Strangers” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Matt Damon — “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
Other Top-Tier Possibilities
- Jamie Bell — “All of Us Strangers” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Jesse Plemons – “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
- Colman Domingo – “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
- Glenn Howerton — “BlackBerry” (IFC Films)
- Jacob Elordi – “Saltburn” (Amazon MGM Studios)
- John Magaro – “Past Lives” (A24)
- Holt McCallany — “The Iron Claw” (A24)
- Peter Sarsgaard — “Memory” (Ketchup Entertainment)
- Chris Messina – “Air” (Amazon Studios)
- Jeremy Allen White – “The Iron Claw” (A24)
Also In Contention
- Ben Affleck – “Air” (Amazon Studios)
- Corey Hawkins — “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
- Ben Whishaw — “Passages” (Mubi)
- Will Ferrell – “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
- Jon Bernthal — “Origin” (Neon)
- Jeffrey Wright – “Rustin” (Netflix)
- Harris Dickinson – “The Iron Claw” (A24)
- Rhys Ifans — “Nyad” (Netflix)
- Richard E. Grant – “Saltburn” (Amazon MGM Studios)
- Raúl Castillo — “Cassandro” (Amazon MGM Studios)
Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Studio)**
** This official list is incomplete, with all release dates not yet confirmed and subject to change.
2022 category winner: Ke Huy Quan, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
Oscars Predictions Categories
BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | BEST ACTOR | BEST ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT
About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.