1. It’s not just that MSU lost. It’s that Iowa looked like the better team.
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Michigan State’s 78-71 home loss to Iowa on Tuesday night wasn’t the sort of defeat that, alone, will put MSU anywhere near the bubble — mute or ignore anyone who says otherwise — but it’s the sort of loss that makes getting a palatable postseason seed more difficult and makes avoiding playing Thursday in the Big Ten tournament that much harder.
The Spartans got beat Tuesday because the Hawkeyes were the better team — as in, I’m not sure they win the game if they play it again. That should be most concerning. An opponent with size on the wing and strength in the post, that looked in sync on offense and was savvy with its zone defense, was a matchup problem for MSU. Even an Iowa team that is perhaps still headed to the NIT.
It’s hard to make a run in March if too many of your potential foes are matchup problems. Teams with size are for MSU — be it on the wing or in the post or, worse, both.
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Also concerning: Iowa just looked more ready for the fight. That shouldn’t be the case for a senior-laden MSU team that had won three straight and has a lot on the line.
“We just weren’t dialed in from the beginning and they’re a really good team,” said A.J. Hoggard, who also lamented his several missed layups in the first half. “And the way they play, their style of play is definitely difficult. We weren’t dialed in how we were supposed to be.”
Perhaps MSU’s string of home wins before Tuesday — nine straight at Breslin, a few of which have included turning it on in the second half — led them to be complacent. Senior Davis Smith chastised his teammates afterward and said he could sense it in warmups. Unfortunately for MSU, Smith isn’t part of the rotation and can’t guard the post.
This was a big win for Iowa, which, after also beating Wisconsin over the weekend, is now going to be in the NCAA tournament conversation. The Hawkeyes beat the Spartans because they scored 40 points in the paint and shot 51% from the floor. They didn’t seem to do anything beyond their capabilities. They just looked more capable of some things than MSU.
The Spartans looked like they might make a run late, turning to a small-ball lineup, with Malik Hall at center and four guards around him. It caused some havoc and created tough matchups. It’s something MSU might need to lean on again, though Tom Izzo scoffed at the idea that it was any sort of solution. With the roster he assembled, it might have to be.
This loss wasn’t in the script. MSU (17-10, 9-7 Big Ten) could use a win that’s not in the script, either. There’s only one of those opportunities left in the regular season, March 2 at Purdue. The MSU team we saw Tuesday should just worry about beating Ohio State at home on Sunday. A loss then and the pressure could really mount.
2. If this is who Jaxon Kohler is going to be, the center rotation changes
Jaxon Kohler for the first time this season was MSU’s go-to choice at center in some of the game’s most critical minutes throughout the second half. The reason: His defense and passing. He made just one bucket, a nice post move and bank shot from the opposite side of the rim. But he created several good looks (none of which MSU made) with passes out of the post or passes that led to shots a pass later. And he was MSU’s best center defensively — albeit not a label worth celebrating Tuesday. Kohler gave up some points, but he did have three blocks, played with aggression and showed quicker feet than we’ve seen from him. He didn’t fall for pump fakes. He was in the right places. He was MSU’s best option on defense on a tough night at center defensively. When that happens, he’ll be the choice, because his offensive feel and skill is well beyond MSU’s other two big men.
This is the first night when his play made you wonder what the rotation at center might have looked like if he hadn’t suffered a foot injury before the season and missed the first two months. When he plays like that, he should be out there 20 minutes per game, like he was in Tuesday’s game. It’s him or Carson Cooper or small ball, like we saw at the very end in desperation time. Mady Sissoko isn’t giving them much and they’re realizing it.
Tuesday, Kohler was at times their best counter to Iowa power forward Ben Krikke, who had 18 points and 14 rebounds, another mid-major transfer big man — this one from Valparaiso — who gave MSU fits.
3. Freshman thoughts – the Iowa edition
There was one positive that came out of the first half for MSU: Xavier Booker. Those were Booker’s most meaningful and best minutes all season. Because he wasn’t capable of them a month ago.
On the offensive end, he’s been looking more comfortable for a few weeks now — and we saw it Saturday on his bucket while being fouled in the paint to cut MSU’s deficit to 24-23, and then again with his passing, including quick touch passes right after the ball hit his hands. Natural feel stuff.
But what stood out most was Booker’s defense — his intensity and understanding and ability to wall up and force a miss by Iowa power forward Ben Krikke and then turn and grab the rebound. This is partly the extra 20 pounds he’s put on during the season — which Tom Izzo mentioned Monday — in effect. It’s also a guy who’s starting to get college basketball. Once his understanding catches up with his skill, he’ll be a difference-maker.
That Izzo and MSU’s staff went back to Booker for the final four minutes of the first half — after his usual short stint — spoke to an increasing trust they have in him. Sure, Mady Sissoko and Carson Cooper had two fouls. But Jaxon Kohler didn’t. And Kohler had done some good things already. Booker had played well and the staff took notice in real time. It’s the first time we’ve seen that.
Neither Booker nor Coen Carr saw time in the second half. Izzo and Co. rode their veterans through a game state that was beyond dicey. As well as Booker played, that was somewhat understandable. Still, Booker did fine against Ben Krikke in a limited sample size in the first half. I think MSU’s coaches will see that when they watch the film and realize they should have given him another stint.
Carr showed some good things again Saturday in limited action. MSU could have really used a seasoned version of Carr in a game like this — a sizable wing who can make plays. Carr, in about 2 1/2 minutes, scored on a baseline drive, an awkward bucket that he finished while being fouled. He attacked the rim for another shot that he missed and came up with one offensive rebound in traffic, the sort of athletic rebound that increases his value.
I think MSU’s coaches planned to play him more. They didn’t anticipate the game going as it did. You’d like to think he’s at the point where the coaches trust his impact, even against a zone. But I guess he’s not quite there.
Contact Graham Couch at [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @Graham_Couch.