49ers-Eagles could determine top seed

The 49ers don’t have to beat the Eagles Sunday.

There. It’s out there. Apologies to those who breathlessly anticipate the end of the 49ers world as they know it should they lose again at Lincoln Financial Field as they did in last year’s NFC Championship Game.

It’s Week 13, so it’s getting serious. As regular-season games go, 49ers-Eagles is as good as it gets based on the whole Brock Purdy drama last Jan. 29.

While the provincial prevailing notion is the 49ers would have gone to the Super Bowl had Haason Reddick been walled off and unable to rearrange the anatomy in Purdy’s elbow, I’m one of the few locally who thought the Eagles were the better team and got what they deserved.

They were better on both sides of the line of scrimmage, and let’s face it, Reddick’s sack wasn’t a cheap shot. It was part of football. And taking out the other team’s quarterback with a legal play is brutal but fair game.

Yet judging from what we’ve seen through 12 weeks, the 2023 49ers (8-3) have gotten better and the 2023 Eagles (10-1) have not.

The Eagles gave up 505 yards in a 37-34 overtime loss to Buffalo Sunday. They’ve been outgained in each of their last four games by an average of 129.3 yards per game (giving up 429.8, gaining 320.5). Last season, Philadelphia gave up more than 400 yards just once in a Week 16 loss to Dallas.

Depending on the weather (it could be raining), it’s hard to believe the 49ers won’t be able to move the ball and score against the Eagles. And their defense could be the best Philadelphia has seen all season.

Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts has been more prone to mistakes, but don’t discount the fact that he has led the Eagles to some close wins and that pulling out tough games is not a trait to be trifled with. It’s one of the things we still don’t know about Purdy. The 49ers had it within their grasp to beat both Cleveland and Minnesota and lost both games.

If Hurts does it again, and the 49ers end up 8-4 to Philadelphia’s 11-1, it’s difficult to see a path to Levi’s Stadium being the eventual site for a title game if the opponent is the Eagles.

Which wouldn’t preclude the 49ers from winning in Philadelphia in the game that matters most. Or the Eagles losing before they even play the 49ers. They’ve played enough close games that it’s not out of the question.

That’s not to say say Sunday won’t be must-see TV. You might have to go back to 1994 when the 49ers hosted the Troy Aikman-Emmitt Smith-Michael Irvin Dallas Cowboys in Week 11 to find a regular-season game with as much rabid local fan interest.

The 49ers won that day 21-14 and all was right with the world. Which is how it will seem if they beat the Eagles Sunday, even if there is plenty of drama still to play out over the final five games and the postseason.

If the 49ers lose, barring catastrophic injury, it’s not much different. Just more difficult.

How the NFC is aligned in terms of playoff seedings heading into Week 13:

IN PLAYOFF POSITION

1. Philadelphia (10-1): The 49ers were bitter and angry about how the season ended a year ago and did a lot of talking in the aftermath of 31-7, inferring they were the better team had it not been for their Purdy misfortune. You can count on the Eagles remembering every word. If you buy into bulletin board hype — and there’s no evidence it actually means anything — the 49ers supplied reams of it.

Next three weeks: vs. 49ers (8-3), at Dallas (8-3), at Seattle (6-5)

2. 49ers (8-3): Three times this season after a 49ers win, the opposing coach essentially said his team got punched in the mouth at the outset and didn’t know what hit it — Mike Tomlin (Pittsburgh), Mike McCarthy (Dallas) and Doug Pederson (Jacksonville). Those three teams have a combined record of 23-10. They’ve outscored teams 52-16 after each has had one possession and it will be a big factor in Philadelphia.

Next three weeks: at Philadelphia (10-1), vs. Seattle (6-5), at Arizona (2-10)

3. Detroit (8-3): The Lions stubbed their toe against Green Bay on Thanksgiving, but it still looks like clear sailing to the NFC North crown. They by and large look to have fallen off based on the way they’ve played in three of their last five games.

Next three weeks: at New Orleans (5-6), at Chicago (4-8), vs. Denver (6-5)

4. Atlanta (5-6): The Falcons got a 92-yard pick six which helped beat New Orleans, but Desmond Ridder looks like nobody’s idea of a franchise quarterback. To squeak into the playoffs and then take a one-sided loss on the chin would only impede the Falcons’ quest to find that quarterback.

Next three weeks: at N.Y. Jets (4-7), vs. Tampa Bay (4-7), at Carolina (1-10)

5. Dallas (8-3): The Cowboys’ last two opponents have adjusted their coverage to account for wide receiver CeeDee Lamb, who had a four-game roll of 41 receptions for 617 yards. No matter, Dallas won big both times by a combined score of 78-20.

Next three weeks: vs. Seattle (6-5), vs. Philadelphia (10-1), at Buffalo (5-6)

6. Seattle (6-5): The Seahawks showed something in the second half after being dominated in every aspect against the 49ers but the schedule is so difficult it’s hard to envision them being anything but an also-ran after the next three games.

Next three weeks: at Dallas (8-3), at 49ers (8-3), vs. Philadelphia (10-1)

7. Minnesota (6-6): The Joshua Dobbs story took a big hit Monday night with a loss to Chicago. He threw four interceptions with one touchdown and the Vikings appear ready for the big fade heading into a much-needed week off.

Next three weeks: Bye, at Las Vegas (5-7), at Cincinnati (5-6)

STILL IN THE HUNT

8. Green Bay (5-6): You wonder if the Packers are thinking maybe they should have had quarterback Jordan Field on the field last season rather than deal with the Aaron Rodgers drama. He’d be even farther along. That doesn’t mean he’s the Hall of Fame heir to the Brett Favre-Rodgers throne, but Love looks like a keeper of late.

Next three weeks: vs. Kansas City (8-3), at N.Y. Giants (4-8), vs. Tampa Bay (4-7)

9. L.A. Rams (5-6): Maybe it’s their youth, but no team has alternately looked so promising and so awful at different times and it can be a week-to-week proposition. Wide receiver Cooper Kupp has been himself only twice all season with hamstring and ankle injuries have him looking like just another guy in his other five games.

Next three weeks: vs. Cleveland (7-4), at Baltimore (9-3), vs. Washington (4-8)

10. New Orleans (5-6): This from noted Derek Carr gadfly Josh Dubow of the Associated Press: The Saints have scored three touchdowns on their last 32 possessions. The scores came on: two touchdown passes from Jameis Winston (when Carr was hurt) and one scoring pass from Taysom Hill (with Carr on the sideline).

Next three weeks: vs. Detroit (8-3), vs. Carolina (1-10), vs. N.Y. Giants (4-8)

11. Tampa Bay (4-7): I still think this might be the best team in the NFC South. Quarterback Baker Mayfield says the Bucs aren’t angry enough to change. Imagine how angry they’ll be if they lose to Carolina Sunday.

Next three weeks: at Carolina (1-10), at Atlanta (5-6), at Green Bay (5-6)

JOCKEYING FOR DRAFT POSITION

12. N.Y. Giants (4-8), 13. Chicago (4-8), 14. Washington (4-8), 15. Arizona (2-10), 16. Carolina (1-10).

SCOPING THE AFC