We’re going to learn a lot about the three teams that have separated themselves from the pack in the NFC in a quest to represent the conference in Super Bowl LVIII in Las Vegas.
The 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles seemed destined to cruise into their Dec. 3 matchup in South Philly as Nos. 1 and 2 to decide home-field advantage for the conference. Instead, both teams lost unexpectedly — with Cleveland beating up on the 49ers 19-17 and the Eagles getting a similar treatment 20-14 courtesy of the New York Jets.
Detroit, meanwhile, easily dismantled Tampa Bay 20-6 and it’s starting to look as if the preseason talk about the Lions’ first playoff berth since 2016 undersold them. Detroit may even be good enough to win their first postseason game since 1991, having lost eight wild card games between that season and ’16.
Here’s a look at how the NFC is aligned in terms of playoff seeding heading into Week 7:
1. 49ERS (5-1): As the 49ers dominated all comers on the way to 5-0, you knew their luck with injuries was too good to be true. And indeed, in their road loss to Cleveland, Deebo Samuel (shoulder) and Christian McCaffrey (oblique/rib) couldn’t finish and Trent Williams (ankle) finished on one leg. All three apparently could play against Minnesota, unless that’s a smokescreen.
Next three weeks: at Minnesota (1-5), vs. Cincinnati (3-3), bye
2. EAGLES (5-1): It’s a classic power vs. speed matchup as the Eagles host the Miami Dolphins and they’ll need quarterback Jalen Hurts to shine. Hurts has been good, but not the MVP candidate he was expected to be. He’s got seven TD passes and seven picks and is on pace for 179 rushes — a career high. He should be running less, not more.
Next three weeks: vs. Miami (5-1), at Washington (3-3), vs. Dallas (4-2)
3. LIONS (5-1): Don’t look now, but Jared Goff (Marin Catholic, Cal) has 4,473 yards, 29 touchdowns and four interceptions in his last 17 games (a full season) dating back to last year. The schedule has been relatively easy, however, and that ends Sunday with a visit to Baltimore to face the Ravens. The last time Detroit won a playoff game was 1983, beating Dallas 38-6.
Next three weeks: at Baltimore (4-2), vs. Las Vegas (3-3), bye
4. BUCCANEERS (3-2): The Bucs are the most likely team currently above .500 to take a dive, and looked the part in their loss to the Lions. Tampa Bay owns wins over Minnesota, Chicago and New Orleans, so Baker Mayfield and Co. still have plenty to prove. They could be also-rans by the time they visit the 49ers on Nov. 19.
Next three weeks: vs. Atlanta (3-3), at Buffalo (4-2), at Houston (3-3)
5. COWBOYS (4-2): The Cowboys rebounded from a national embarrassment against the 49ers to beat the Chargers. And although they couldn’t seem to avoid putting 12 men on the field on defense or doing some screwy things with the clock, quarterback Dak Prescott outplayed his counterpart, the more heralded Justin Herbert. Can rest up for two difficult post-bye tests.
Next three weeks: Bye, vs. L.A. Rams (3-3), at Philadelphia (5-1).
6. SEAHAWKS (3-2): Based on the schedule, their only signature win came against the Lions in Week 2, when the Seahawks gave up 31 points. The rushing defense has been very good though, which makes Nov. 23 and (in Seattle) and Dec. 10 (in Santa Clara) dates against the 49ers interesting.
Next three weeks: vs. Arizona (1-5), vs. Cleveland (3-3), at Baltimore (4-2)
7. RAMS (3-3): The loss of running back Kyren Williams for multiple games is a body blow. But six games into the season, the Rams look as if they’re a legit playoff contender. Wouldn’t have said that going into Week 1. If this happens, Sean McVay is at least in the conversation for Coach of the Year considering the post-Super Bowl roster teardown.
Next three weeks: vs. Pittsburgh (3-2), at Dallas (4-2), at Green Bay (2-3)
![INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA - SEPTEMBER 17: Los Angeles Rams head coach Sean McVay shakes hands with San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan after the game at SoFi Stadium on September 17, 2023 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)](https://i0.wp.com/www.mercurynews.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/BNG-L-49ERS-0918-27-1.jpg?fit=620%2C9999px&ssl=1)
REST OF THE .500 CLUB
8. COMMANDERS (3-3): Quarterback Sam Howell has been sacked 34 times. That’s on pace for 96 sacks over 17 games, and much of that is on him for not getting rid of the ball.
Next three weeks: at N.Y. Giants (1-5), vs. Philadelphia (4-2), at New England (1-5)
9. FALCONS (3-3): If Christian McCaffrey (733 yards from scrimmage) is out for more than a game, rookie Bijan Robinson (590) might pass him.
Next three weeks: at Tampa Bay (3-2), at Tennessee (2-4), vs. Miami (4-2)
10. SAINTS (3-3): Derek Carr can take a licking and keep on ticking. He still struggles in the red zone it appears. Raiders fans know all about it.
Next three weeks: vs. Jacksonville (4-2), at Indianapolis (3-3), vs. Chicago (1-5)
SCOPING THE AFC
Current seeding for postseason
So the top four seeds are led by quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes, Tua Tagovaiola, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. Sounds about right. Will need to make room for Joe Burrow.
1. Kansas City (5-1), 2. Miami (5-1), 3. Baltimore (4-2), 4. Jacksonville (4-2), 5. Buffalo (4-2), 6. Pittsburgh (3-2), 7. Cleveland (3-3).
Rest of the .500 club: 8, Indianapolis (3-3), 9. Houston (3-3), 10. N.Y. Jets (3-3), 11. Las Vegas (3-3), 12. Cincinnati (3-3).