Steve Wilks is out as the 49ers’ defensive coordinator. Kyle Shanahan made the right decision to fire Wilks on Wednesday, just three days after Super Bowl LVIII.
The Niners’ window to win a Super Bowl is still wide open, but it won’t stay open forever. The next defensive coordinator has to be the right guy — something Wilks proved he was not throughout the season.
So who is next?
The Niners are a bit late in the game to hire a DC, having just played a game on Sunday. And just like last offseason, when Shanahan hired Wilks, there are no viable in-house candidates for the gig. (With apologies to Daniel Bullocks and Nick Sorensen.)
One name, however, jumps to the top of the list:
Brandon Staley.
Before you get the pitchforks out, hear me out.
The former Chargers head coach was terrible at that job. No one will debate that.
But he’s not being hired for that job — he’d be hired as a defensive coordinator. And buddy, there’s a big difference.
He is exceptional at that latter gig. His defensive game plans are as innovative, dynamic, and sound as any coach’s. He’s also a disciple of Vic Fangio.
You probably remember that Shanahan wanted Fangio, the former defensive coordinator under Jim Harbaugh, back in 2017. And had the Niners not been playing deep into the playoffs the last two seasons, they might have been able to snag Fangio then, too. He returned to the league with the Dolphins last season and left that job to become the Eagles’ DC this offseason.
But Staley is the next best thing. He might even be better.
When Fangio was in Chicago, he plucked Staley from obscurity — he was the defensive coordinator at NCAA Division III John Carroll University. Then Fangio took Staley with him to Denver. Fangio saw something in this guy, and he was proven right.
Shanahan’s protégé and nemesis, Sean McVay, hired Staley as his defensive coordinator for the 2020 season. His work with the Rams earned him that Chargers head coaching job.
But he ascended too fast. It was a perfect example of the Peter principle — you are promoted to the point of incompetence. After a nice start to his Chargers tenure, things fell apart the last two years. You can blame Chargers’ ownership; you can blame a front office that gave out bad contracts to older players and failed to draft well; you can blame Justin Herbert for failing to take the next step as a quarterback; and you can blame Staley, whose phony faux-quant schtick started to ring untrue after the team blew a 27-0 lead in the 2022 Wild Card round.
The fact is that Staley won’t be a head coach in this league again. He’s whip-smart but lacks the political skills to run an entire team. Plus, he’s a defensive coach, so he won’t receive the benefit of the doubt in interviews — it’s an offense-first league.
However, after going through three coordinators in four years, Shanahan could use some stability in the position.
Shanahan needs someone to be the Steve Spagnuolo — another defensive genius whose disastrous tenure as a head coach ensures he will never be hired for that job again — to his Andy Reid.
While Shanahan’s hands touch everything involved with the 49ers, he does provide exceptional autonomy to his defensive coordinator. The idea is that they run their team, Shanahan runs his, and they come together before a game. That model worked under Robert Saleh and DeMeco Ryans.
It didn’t work under Wilks, because Shanahan continuously had to step in to ensure the program was running. It often wasn’t. (Though other teams had no problem running against these Niners.)
Staley has no defensive ideology that will override what the Niners already do. He’s a pragmatist. Like Bill Belichick (who will not be taking this job, no matter what some idiot on social media says), Staley ran bespoke defensive game plans week-by-week with the Rams and Chargers. He’ll understand the assignment, unlike Wilks. And he can be trusted with being the “head coach” of a defense.
Just don’t let him near the offense.
And while sure, other candidates will be considered — the Niners just did this process a year ago, after all — if Shanahan wants to ensure he has someone who can effectively do the job and won’t require him to do this again anytime soon, Staley is the guy for the gig.