Australia is at risk of never acquiring submarines it was promised under the AUKUS agreement after the US navy confirmed a fresh blow to the security deal, Malcolm Turnbull says.
Under the Biden administration’s proposed budget, just one Virginia-class submarine would be ordered in 2025, down from the expected two.
The decision has raised concerns about the timeline in which Australia would receive its first nuclear powered submarine as the transfer of the vessels is dependent on the US’ production targets.
Speaking with the ABC, the former prime minister said Australia had been “mugged by reality” and cast doubt on the US’ ability to ramp up its production in time to provide the promised vessels.
“The reality is the Americans are not going to make their submarine deficit worse than it is already by giving or selling submarines to Australia and the AUKUS legislation actually sets that up,” the former prime minister told ABC radio on Wednesday.
“We are bobbing along as a cork in the maelstrom of American politics.
“Unless the Americans are able to dramatically change the pace at which they’re producing submarines, and there’s no reason to believe they will be able to do so, we will not ever get the submarines that were promised.
“This is what happens when you give up when a sovereign nation abandons its sovereignty.”
Under the deal inked a year ago, the first three US nuclear power submarines would be transferred by early 2030s should the US meet its own production targets of 2.3 vessels per year, up from a current average of 1.2.
From there, domestic production on the remaining vessels will commence in South Australia.
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The Pentagon sought to downplay concerns the budget cut would undermine the AUKUS commitment when asked on Tuesday.
Rear Admiral Ben Reynolds, Under Secretary of the navy, insisted production would be back on track by 2028.
“We’re having regular exchanges with the Australians on the — the timing and the shape of those investments. So it’s an open dialogue,” he said.
The budget request also included a US$11bn for additional investment over the next five years for the domestic submarine industry.
Australia will also provide $3bn to the US submarine industrial base to increase their sustainment and production.
Defence Minister Richard Marles said he remained “steadfast” in his commitment to the pathway announced a year ago.
“All three AUKUS partners are working at pace to integrate our industrial bases and to realise this historic initiative between our countries,” he said.