NCAA Tournament picks for the first round

The Pac-12 didn’t get everything it wanted from the NCAA selection committee but received enough to be positioned for success in what should be the most-viewed women’s tournament ever.

The conference claimed three No. 1 or 2 seeds for the first time in its 12-school era even though the regular season champion, Stanford, dropped to the No. 2 line behind Big 12 tournament champion Texas, which was assigned the fourth No. 1 seed.

USC, the Pac-12 champion, earned a No. 1 seed for the first time since 1986. Stanford and UCLA are No. 2 seeds and will host the opening weekend.

The Los Angeles schools are hosting sub-regionals in the same season for the first time since 1992.

With USC and Stanford assigned to the two Portland regions and UCLA to the Albany 2 region, Oregon State, a No. 3 seed, was placed in the Albany 1 region. The top-four teams in a conference must be in different regions.

Ramifications were felt on the No. 3 seed line as defending NCAA champion LSU was placed in the Albany 2 region along with No. 1 Iowa.

Also, Connecticut and North Carolina State were shipped across the country as No. 3 seeds to the Portland regions.

The Pac-12 missed out on a fifth sub-regional host when Colorado dropped to a No. 5 seed, primarily due to a 2-6 record in the closing stretch. The Buffaloes will travel to Manhattan, Kan., and No. 5 seed Utah will head to Spokane, Wash., for first- and potentially second-round games.

Of the unranked Pac-12 teams, Arizona reached the NCAA field as a No. 11 seed and will play in a First Four game in Storrs, Conn. Three others (Washington State, Washington and California) were selected for the new 32-team WBIT, meaning 10 of the conference’s 12 teams will compete in the postseason.

Only Arizona State and Oregon were left out.

Since the 2015-16 season, the Pac-12 has the highest NCAA Tournament winning percentage (.667) in the country and the most Sweet 16 appearances (25), and it’s tied for the most Elite Eight (13) and Final Four (seven) qualifiers.

Here are Hotline predictions for the NCAA First Four/first round.

Thursday (First Four)

No. 11 Arizona (17-15) vs. No. 11 Auburn (20-11) 

Comment: Auburn went 1-1 vs. Pac-12 teams in non-conference play, beating Washington State after earlier losing to Cal. Arizona made the NCAAs over both of those opponents after closing strong (5-3 since Feb. 16), with two narrow losses to USC. Auburn won four straight before losing to LSU in the SEC Tournament. The Wildcats are making do with seven scholarship players and a defense that can win provided they avoid foul trouble.
Pick: Arizona.

Friday (first round)

No. 5 Colorado (22-9) vs. No. 12 Drake (29-5)

Comment: The Buffaloes would relish a Sweet 16 rematch against Iowa and Caitlin Clark, but getting there requires winning on the road. (At one point, they seemed like a lock to play at home.) Drake has won 14 consecutive games, a winning streak that began on Jan. 27. That said, Missouri Valley competition is much different than what Colorado faced in the Pac-12. CU’s veteran team should advance, likely to meet No. 4 seed/host Kansas State.
Pick: Colorado

No. 3 Oregon State (24-7) vs. No. 14 Eastern Washington (29-5)

Comment: Eastern Washington won the Big Sky regular season and tournament titles and is on a 13-game winning streak. But again, the competition disparity will show when the Eagles try to slow Raegan Beers and company at rowdy  Gill Coliseum. Eastern Washington lost to Cal in December and to Gonzaga by only two points in November, its only Quadrant 1 games.
Pick: Oregon State

No. 2 Stanford (28-5) vs. No. 15 Norfolk State (27-5)

Comment: Stanford fell short of adding the Pac-12 tournament title to its regular season crown, losing 74-61 to USC. Guards Talana Lepolo and Hannah Jump had a combined six points in that game, and the Cardinal needs more from its  backcourt to avoid a second straight letdown in the opening weekend of NCAA play. Starting strong against MEAC champion Norfolk State will help going into the second round against No. 7 Iowa State or No. 10 Maryland.
Pick: Stanford

Saturday (first round)

No. 1 USC (26-5) vs. No. 16 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (23-8)

Comment: In its first NCAA Tournament appearance, Texas A&M-CC draws the hottest team in the Pac-12 and national Freshman of the Year candidate JuJu Watkins. The Trojans are 12-1 since Feb. 2 with wins over Stanford (twice), UCLA, Oregon State and Colorado. The Islanders won the Southland Conference tournament for an NCAA automatic bid. No. 8 Kansas and No. 9 Michigan will duel to face USC, barring a major upset, in the second round.
Pick: USC