Matchups, predictions, how to watch

As the Denver Nuggets enter the second round of the 2024 NBA playoffs, a breakdown of their series matchup against the Minnesota Timberwolves:

Who has the edge?

Guards: If Jamal Murray is healthy and hot, he can keep pace with any scoring guard in the NBA. But he might not be either of those things right now. Meanwhile, Anthony Edwards has welcomed these playoffs with the captivating intensity of a tornado. If you’re not strong enough to withstand his provocation, you’ll be sucked into a vortex of buckets, blocks and smack-talk. He draws his power from any perceived weakness revealed by an opponent. Devin Booker and Kevin Durant have already suffered casualties. If there’s any optimism for Denver, it’s that Minnesota’s offense is prone to over-reliance on Edwards. The Nuggets need to find a way to make Minnesota point guards Mike Conley and Monte Morris liabilities, then pile extra pressure on Edwards as an initiator. In both regular-season wins, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope held Edwards scoreless in the fourth quarter. Good luck pulling that off in the playoffs. Edge: Timberwolves.

Wings: This is where the Timberwolves present a potential matchup problem. In the regular season, Jamal Murray shot only 40% from 2-point range against Minnesota, leaning heavily on his 3-point jumper. He was held to fewer than 20 points in both head-to-head meetings on the road. The 6-foot-9 Jaden McDaniels is a nightmarish defender. He missed last year’s series because he punched a wall late in the regular season, but there’s no dodging him this year. On the other hand, the Nuggets happen to employ a 6-10 wing in Michael Porter Jr. who has been their second-best offensive asset in these playoffs so far, forcing Minnesota into tough decisions about where McDaniels is best suited: on Murray or MPJ. Edge: Nuggets.

Bigs: This could go either way. The Timberwolves have arguably the most complete front-court in the NBA with All-Star Karl-Anthony Towns, likely Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert and Sixth Man of the Year Naz Reid. But the Nuggets’ center is the most unstoppable singular force in the league. Nikola Jokic was as dominant as usual in the first round, and he’s given Gobert the business multiple times in past playoff meetings. Until proven otherwise? Edge: Nuggets.

Bench: Denver’s second unit established a playoff identity predicated on lockdown defense in the first round against the Lakers, keeping Jokic’s rest minutes to a wash (for the most part). But this ain’t the Lakers’ bench. Reid isn’t even a starter, yet he’s one of the best ball-handling centers in the league. He’ll keep Aaron Gordon busy when Gordon isn’t guarding Towns. Or if Minnesota wants to use a two-big bench lineup with Towns and Reid, it’ll force Peyton Watson to guard Reid. Then there’s Nickeil Alexander-Walker, a solid two-way wing who averaged 12.3 points in the first round and was a plus-59 for the series. The Nuggets need the same defensive output against a tougher challenge from Watson and Christian Braun; they also need those two to start scoring. Edge: Timberwolves.

Coaching: Here’s a plot twist. Chris Finch, who finished third in voting for NBA Coach of the Year, ruptured his right patellar tendon late in Game 4 against Phoenix when Mike Conley collided with him on the sideline. The Timberwolves might need to get creative with their sideline spacing if he’s able to return swiftly from the surgery he underwent between rounds. Injuries are a part of the game, and it’s normal this time of year for teams to be forced into uncomfortable situations, figuring out new methods to execute plays. It’s not as common for teams to require modification in how they call plays. Edge: Nuggets.

— Bennett Durando, The Denver Post

Five things to watch

We meet again, old friend

For the second year in a row, the Nuggets stand opposite their old friend, Tim Connelly. Once the front office leader of the Nuggets organization, Connelly left for Minnesota two years ago, executed a blockbuster trade for Rudy Gobert and then watched as his big acquisition flopped and his former team rampaged to its first Larry O’Brien Trophy. A year later, Gobert has reaffirmed his status as one of the NBA’s best defenders, and the Timberwolves stand as perhaps the biggest threat to a Nuggets return to the NBA Finals. Get used to it, folks. This rivalry could be just getting started.

Mile High connections

Of course, the Connelly connection is only the beginning of the Nuggets East theme coming out of Minneapolis. Head coach Chris Finch served as an associate head coach under Michael Malone for one season in 2016-17, lead assistant Micah Nori was another Malone assistant from 2015 to ’18, and backup point guard Monte Morris filled the same role for the Nuggets for five seasons as the franchise rose from afterthought to title contender. If that’s not enough, current Denver assistant coach Ryan Saunders was the Timberwolves’ head coach for three years before getting fired in 2021, and general manager Calvin Booth once served as a T-Wolves scout. These teams know each other well.

Bigs on bigs

After battling with Anthony Davis for five games, the defensive challenge for Nikola Jokic will take on a different tone against Minnesota. While Rudy Gobert doesn’t pose near the same offensive threat as AD, it’s likely the Timberwolves will make Jokic work by using Gobert as a consistent on-ball screener. The more critical matchup to watch, however, may be the faceoff between Aaron Gordon and Karl-Anthony Towns. Last spring, AG’s ability to neutralize KAT as a one-on-one defender (37% shooting, 10 baskets, nine turnovers) was a game-changer. Submit another series like that, and AG will further burnish what’s become a formidable reputation as a postseason stopper.

Spread-out series

If you’re looking for the team that most benefited from closing out its first-round series quickly, look no further than the Nuggets. With Jamal Murray (calf) and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (ankle) both banged up, the four days’ rest between their closeout of the Lakers on Monday and Game 1 vs. the T-Wolves on Saturday has offered a welcome break. Even better? With both teams finishing their series in four games or fewer, they will also get an extended three-day break between Game 2 in Denver and Game 3 in Minneapolis. Advantage, Nuggets.

Repeat performance?

In winning their first-round series, the Nuggets became the fourth reigning NBA champion to reach the conference semifinal round in the past five seasons. The problem: Not a single one of those defending champs advanced past that semifinal round. The 2022-23 Warriors lost to the Lakers in six, the 2021-22 Bucks lost to Celtics in seven, the 2019-20 Raptors lost to the Celtics in seven, and the 2020-21 Lakers didn’t even make it out of the first round.

— Matt Schubert, The Denver Post

Staff predictions

Bennett Durando, Nuggets beat writer: Look, I’ve been met with scrutiny by a certain member of this predictions panel for claiming — well before the playoffs — that I think Minnesota is Denver’s most dangerous Western Conference threat in a seven-game series. It’s about to get a whole lot tougher if Murray can’t stay healthy. Tentatively … Nuggets in seven.