Russia’s show of solidarity with India over allegations of an attempted assassination on US soil is not expected to rattle ties between Washington and New Delhi, according to observers, with one analyst noting Moscow is “fishing in troubled waters”.
Experts also say India is likely to strike a middle ground between Russia and the United States, with Delhi still maintaining an arms and oil trade with Moscow. Washington, meanwhile, has been perceived to be “gradual” in the handling of the alleged extrajudicial plot.
The Washington Post reported last month that an officer in India’s intelligence service was involved in a foiled scheme to assassinate Sikh leader Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, who has described himself as a dual US-Canadian citizen, on American soil. An Indian government spokesman rebutted the accusation as “unwarranted and unsubstantiated imputations on a serious matter”.
The White House said it viewed the reported role of the Indian intelligence service as a very serious matter, but last week expressed satisfaction with Delhi’s move to ensure accountability by setting up a high-level committee to investigate the matter.
According to Indian news agency ANI, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said last week that “Washington has not yet provided any reliable evidence of the involvement of Indian citizens in the preparation of the murder of a certain GS Pannun. Speculation on this topic in the absence of evidence is unacceptable”.
She also said the US conduct showed disrespect to India as a state.
“The whole thing is quite murky because in terms of public information, there is not much we know about it. [Russia is] fishing in troubled waters,” said Manoj Joshi, a fellow at the Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation.
India has political and military ties with Russia stretching back decades, but in recent years has shifted more towards the US and other Western nations.
“In 2024, it is very clear that India is very distinctly leaning towards the US, whether it be in arms transfer or in other matters,” Joshi said, but noted that most of India’s defence equipment was still of Russian origin and that it would like to maintain its ties with Moscow.
Joshi said Delhi was still likely to cooperate with US inquiries into the alleged murder plot and chances were that both sides would do their best to not upset bilateral ties. However, he noted, the situation could become risky if surprising new details emerged later.
Russia provided India with its latest military technology until about 2012, but in recent years had allowed China first access to such technology, Joshi said.
“India would like to retain Russian friendship and ensure that China does not get the advantage there,” he said.
Since the outbreak of Russia’s war with Ukraine, Moscow has also supplied discounted crude oil to India, although the volume of purchases appears to have declined in recent months, analysts say.
Delhi has maintained a neutral stance on Russia’s war with Ukraine and urged both sides to resolve the issue through dialogue. It has also defended its purchases of Russian oil, saying they are necessary for energy security since India imports more than 80 per cent of its crude oil needs.
But its Western allies have been frowning on the purchases since India became a member of the Quad – a quadrilateral security bloc that also includes the US, Australia and Japan.
However, Washington and Delhi have been working to deepen their relationship at the highest levels, including the transfer of sophisticated military technology as well as through the continuous build-up of trade and economic ties.
US-India ties on even keel
“America has not used [the episode] to fan anti-India sentiment. They have gone about it gradually and they have been trying to not derail the relationship with India,” said Harsh Pant, a professor of international relations at King’s College London.
This was in sharp contrast to India’s ties with Canada, which had soured since Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government accused Indian intelligence agents of being involved in the 2023 murder of Canadian citizen and Sikh separatist leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar, he said.
Delhi recently criticised Trudeau for attending a rally in Toronto supporting a Sikh separatist movement.
Canadian police arrested and charged four Indian men with the murder of Nijjar last year and said they were investigating whether the men had ties with the Indian government.
Pant said Russia’s stance on the US accusation about Sikh leader Pannun stemmed more from the nation’s strained ties with the West.
“They also want to underscore their relationship with India by highlighting they do not do something that Americans are doing,” Pant said.
“But Russia cannot match the economic heft of the West. Russia’s weaknesses have also become a problem because it is making it more difficult for India,” he said, noting that economic cooperation had become harder to maintain since Moscow began its invasion of Ukraine.