The Chinese and the American militaries are behaving in ways that inevitably result in each country seeing the moves of the other as provocative. The positive dialogue they say they are promoting does not seem able to reverse that trend.
What happened last week was quite illustrative of the real state of relations between China and the United States. Four armed Chinese coastguard ships entered disputed waters in the East China Sea near the Diaoyu Islands, which Japan calls the Senkaku Islands. The Japanese government said that, for the first time, Chinese vessels deployed in the area were equipped with cannons. The Biden administration has made it clear several times that the US-Japan Security Treaty also applies to those disputed islands.
Days earlier, US forces took part in the Tiger Strike 24 bilateral exercise with Malaysia. The military drills featured joint amphibious operations in the South China Sea, where China has overlapping territorial claims with Malaysia and other neighbours such as Brunei, the Philippines and Vietnam. While Indonesia is not a claimant state, its exclusive economic zone stretches to the edge of the South China Sea, where it has challenged Chinese efforts to fish.
Beijing has repeatedly urged neighbours to distance themselves from the United States, accusing Washington of having hegemonic geopolitical ambitions in the region.
On May 31, Chinese Defence Minister Dong Jun and US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin met on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. Austin emphasised the importance of maintaining communication channels between their countries. This certainly sounded good for stability not only in Asia, but for the entire world.
But war preparations by the two rivals tell a completely different story, with the Western Pacific, the Malacca Strait and the Japanese island of Kyushu increasingly resembling a potential battleground. No regional actor can be spared from this dynamic.
A Chinese Coast Guard vessel sails near a Japanese Coast Guard vessel near the disputed Diaoyu Islands on April 27. Photo: Reuters/Kyodo
China and the US may well be talking to each other in a constructive way, but their conflicting positions on security in the Asia-Pacific, as well as the wars in Gaza and Ukraine, are here to stay.
The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is intent on honing the “kill chain” of military assets aimed at keeping US surface forces at bay, as indicated by its war games, operations and activities in the region. Take the deployment of PLA logistics ships around Taipei-controlled Quemoy, for example.
US strategist Lyle Goldstein has argued that the PLA has been methodically studying the Allied forces’ successful landing on the beaches of Normandy, France, in the summer of 1944, which dealt a mortal blow to the Nazi German occupation. Goldstein noted that, according to some military experts, an amphibious assault by Beijing on Taiwan would have to be on a scale comparable to the Normandy campaign 80 years ago to be effective.
And if Beijing is shoring up its military strength, Washington is quietly and steadily taking countermeasures. The US has increased the number and quality of military exercises across the Western Pacific. In a recent report, the International Institute of Strategic Studies pointed out that US military drills with its allies in the region still outweigh those conducted by China in qualitative and quantitative terms.
A Philippine soldier guards a US military hovercraft during the annual “Balikatan” bilateral military exercise on May 1 in San Vicente, the Philippines. Photo: Kyodo
However, while the deployment of a mid-range missile system in the Philippines made headlines, there are much less noticed developments in the US military build-up that are just as important. Last month, the US defence department began delivering unmanned aerial vehicles to its forces stationed in the Indo-Pacific region.
Washington aims to deploy tens of thousands of drones to the vast region by the end of next year. Such assets might be used in the maritime domain, or to counter threats from Chinese aerial systems.
The US is also experimenting with a new, jam-resistant communications technology that could enable the transmission of data from a system based in space to American military commanders and allies around the world during an attack. Gathering tactical information would be critical to any US effort aimed at piercing mainland China’s vast defence network during a potential Taiwan contingency.
02:20
Two mainland Chinese fishermen drown after Taiwan coastguard pursuit
Two mainland Chinese fishermen drown after Taiwan coastguard pursuit
The US navy is also set to test advanced network technologies during the Rim of the Pacific multilateral exercise, scheduled from June 26 to August 2, in and around Hawaii. The testing will be conducted under the secretive Project Overmatch initiative, part of a wider effort by the US military to better connect its land, air, sea, space and cyberspace forces – including with allies and partners – to build a more unified war machine.
It is a gloomy picture. And holding on to hope that the constraints of economic interdependence will prevent a conflict between China and the US could be unrealistic. Economic interdependence did not prevent two world wars in the last century. Likewise, rational economic considerations did not stop Russian President Vladimir Putin from invading Ukraine in February 2022.
If China and the US simply focus on managing their competition, and not on trying to solve the problems underlying their rivalry, they will continue to arm themselves to the teeth. And once the amassing of military forces and equipment in the Western Pacific has reached a critical point, it will be difficult to hold back the demons of war.
Emanuele Scimia is an independent journalist and foreign affairs analyst
Denial of responsibility! Chronicles Live is an automatic aggregator of the all world’s media. In each content, the hyperlink to the primary source is specified. All trademarks belong to their rightful owners, all materials to their authors. If you are the owner of the content and do not want us to publish your materials, please contact us by email – chronicleslive.com. The content will be deleted within 24 hours.
