‘DON’T come home too soon’.
It’s every Scotland fan’s biggest fear – immortalised in Del Amitri’s 1998 World Cup song.
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Those same fears came bubbling back to the surface right now after Scotland’s 5-1 opening day Euro 2024 humbling against Germany – but the draw with Switzerland puts a different complexion on things ahead of Sunday night’s massive clash with Hungary.
The Scots – as we all must know by now – have never qualified from the group stage of ANY major tournament.
It’s a record Steve Clarke and his squad are desperate to do something about – and they’ve given themselves a genuine chance of making it.
With a whopping SIXTEEN teams from the 24 sides which enter the competition able to find their way into the knockout stages, our chances have never been greater.
The 5-1 humbling was a body blow but we’re not done yet and here’s how the qualifying equation works now for Scotland.
What do Scotland need against Hungary to qualify in third place?
- Last Wednesday’s result means Scotland are sure to kick off against Hungary with their chance of qualification still LIVE
- A win SHOULD be enough against Hungary to finish in third.
- But there are no guarantees.
- A big win against Hungary, and a big Swiss defeat against Germany, could even see us leapfrog the Swiss into SECOND, although our goal difference is currently four goals worse.
- Teams who finish in the top two spots are assured of a spot in the knockout rounds
- The FOUR third placed teams with the best records across the groups will also progress
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What are our chances of getting through with four points?
- There’s no guarantees, particularly as our goal difference is poor.
- But since the tournament went to 24 teams, no team has EVER failed to qualify with four points.
- We’re in Group A and play first so other teams would know what they need to beat our tally of points and goal difference.
- We currently sit third in the table of teams slated to finish third in their groups, behind Slovenia and Albania, but three teams have yet to play their second match.
- There’s a very slim possibility of a draw against Hungary being enough – but no team has ever qualified for the last 16 with TWO points
- Here’s the current list of third placed teams ahead of Saturday’s games
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Who and where would Scotland play if they finish second in the group?
- Scotland can no longer win the group, but finish second in Group A and Scotland would face the Runners-up in Group B
- That could be a meeting with holders Italy or our old foes Spain.
- The other two options in that group are Croatia or Albania
- The match would take place in Cologne in Berlin’s Olympiastadion on Sat 29 June with a 5pm kick-off
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Who and where would Scotland play if they are one of the top four third place finishers in the group?
- Finish in one of the top four third place teams and Scotland would face the Winners of either Group B, E or F
- Group B has Spain, Croatia, Italy and Albania
- Group E has Belgium, Slovakia, Romania and Ukraine
- Group F has Turkiye, Georgia, Portugal and Czechia
- The final classification depends on which groups the best third placed teams come from
- There’s three possible fixture dates and venues
- We could play Spain/Croatia/Italy/Albania in Cologne on Sunday June 30
- OR we could play Belgium/Slovakia/Romania/Ukraine in Munich on Tuesday July 2
- OR we could play Turkiye/Georgia/Portugal/Czechia in Frankfurt on Monday July 1
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What are the tie-breakers if teams are level at the end of the group stages?
- Points
- Goal difference
- Goals scored
- Wins
- If at the end of the group stage, two teams in the SAME group who are facing each other are level on all the above, a penalty shoot-out will be played
- Lower disciplinary points total
- European Qualifiers overall ranking – except if comparison involves Germany, where lots will be drawn
Go Ballistic – SunSport’s new podcast
SUNSPORT is going Ballistic with the launch of our brilliant new podcast.
Every day of the Euros host Roger Hannah will bring you all the latest news and views from the Scotland camp in Garmisch-Partenkirchen.
He will be joined by our men in Germany – Bill Leckie, Robert Grieve and Derek McGregor.
And there will also be special guest appearances from our Euro 2024 columnist Gordon Strachan, regular columnist Kris Boyd and bookie basher Jim Delahunt.
You can watch every episode on our website or our brand new YouTube channel.
What are you waiting for, it’s time to Go Ballistic!
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