It’s hard to imagine a team and market more perfectly fit to embrace Shohei Ohtani than the San Francisco Giants, and as of Monday, the oddsmakers in Las Vegas agree.
While the odds of the Los Angeles Angels trading their two-way superstar ahead of the Aug. 1 MLB trade deadline are shrinking — the Angels are just four games out of wild card position — the Giants have surpassed the other 29 teams as the club most likely to acquire him.
According to DraftKings’ sportsbook, the Angels (-300) are expected to roster Ohtani on Aug. 2, but the Giants are next in line (+1,000, meaning a $100 bet would generate $1,000 in return).
These odds have changed dramatically since last Monday, when the Giants were considered the fifth-most likely team to land Ohtani, behind the Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets, New York Yankees and Seattle Mariners.
Why the change? The Angels have won six of their last eight games and are about to start a three-game series with the lowly Detroit Tigers, while the Yankees and Mets have seen their playoff odds plummet in recent weeks, and the Angels are not keen on sending Ohtani across town to the Dodgers.
Meanwhile, the Giants are in wild card position despite being swept by the Washington Nationals, are in desperate need for some offensive help and have the prospects to make a megadeal happen, if the Angels want to play ball.
The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported Monday that he expects Ohtani to stay with the Angels, though MLB.com’s Jon Morosi wrote, “the possibility of an Ohtani trade remains.”
Ohtani told the Los Angeles Times last week that he’s hoping to stay in Los Angeles, where Mike Trout is expected to return from the injured list in late August as the Angels look to qualify for the postseason for the first time since 2014.
“I think we’re in a position where we can still make it,” Ohtani said. “Last year and the year before, by this time, we were totally sellers. Honestly, we were on the side of watching key players getting traded. The team’s morale is completely different, of course.”
THE CASE FOR THE GIANTS
What makes the Giants a great fit for Ohtani? There’s certainly a need.
They rank dead last in offensive production in the month of July, scoring just 3.2 runs per game while their best hitter, Thairo Estrada, is on the injured list recovering from a broken hand.
Ohtani leads the majors with 36 home runs and a 1.072 OPS to go along with ridiculous batted ball stats that prove he hits the ball harder, more consistently, than any hitter in the sport.
On the pitching side, the Giants could use another force in the rotation behind Logan Webb and Alex Cobb. They rank 23rd with 5.0 fWAR from their starting rotation this year.
And while Ohtani’s contract will expire at the end of the season, the Giants have a ton of payroll flexibility with just $110 million on the books for 2024. Whether or not Ohtani decides he’s willing to negotiate a contract extension in the middle of the season, the Giants would have an exclusive negotiating window of five days between the end of the World Series and the beginning of free agency.
The trade-and-sign technique has worked well for some teams, including the Dodgers, who acquired Mookie Betts in the final year of his contract with the Boston Red Sox before the 2020 season. Betts was vocal about wanting to test free agency until he landed with the Dodgers, who almost immediately extended him with a record-setting 12-year contract.
Even if the Giants can’t re-sign him, they would certainly present him with a qualifying offer that would net them a draft pick after the second round of next year’s first-year player draft. Those picks don’t often turn into much, but keep in mind the Giants have had some success there. Casey Schmitt was a second-rounder in 2020, Webb was a fourth-rounder in 2014, Brandon Crawford was a fourth-rounder in 2008 and Brandon Belt was a fifth-rounder in 2009.
The Giants have already shown their love for two-way players in the draft, where they’ve selected a two-way guy with their first-round pick in each of the last two seasons.
THE CASE AGAINST
While Ohtani is chasing Aaron Judge’s American League home run record of 63, his power numbers would surely decline in San Francisco.
According to Baseball Savant, only 26 of Ohtani’s 36 home runs would have left the yard at Oracle Park. No other ballpark would have as much of an effect.
And while any team could find a way for Ohtani to get into their lineup regularly, it would require some maneuvering with the Giants, who rank fourth in MLB in production from the DH spot with 22 home runs and an .844 OPS.
Joc Pederson and Wilmer Flores have handled the responsibilities well. Flores could just as easily play first base, where he’s an above-average defender, and send LaMonte Wade Jr. to the bench against lefties. But Pederson hasn’t been great in the outfield and moving him there would force Blake Sabol to the bench.
The Giants would surely have to give up a haul to lure the Angels into a trade, and that could require them to part ways with pitching prospect Kyle Harrison (92 strikeouts in 56 1/3 innings in Triple-A Sacramento) and/or shortstop prospect Marco Luciano (.234 average, .800 OPS in 61 games between Double-A and Triple-A this year).
Is it worth it for a half-season of Ohtani?
Consider this: Ohtani has been worth a total of 6.6 fWAR this year. If the Giants had six additional wins, they’d be in first place in the National League West and in position to get a first-round bye in the playoffs.