In his first 15 major league starts, Cleveland Guardians rookie pitcher Tanner Bibee is 6-2, with a … [+]
Could rookie pitcher Tanner Bibee be the Cleveland Guardians’ next Shane Bieber? He may get the chance, because the possibility exists that former Cy Young Award winner Bieber may have already pitched his last game for Cleveland. Even if he hasn’t, his days in Cleveland may be numbered, given that he can become a free agent after the 2024 season, and the Guardians historically don’t put up much of a fight when their stars reach free agency.
In what would seem to be a major blow to Cleveland’s postseason hopes, Bieber, who was placed on the injured list on July 12 with right elbow inflammation, was transferred to the 60-day injured list on Monday. That may not mean Bieber’s season is over, but at the very least he’s cutting it close.
This is the second consecutive season Cleveland’s starting rotation has been riddled with injuries, causing Guardians’ officials to have to scramble. Last year was bad. This year is worse.
How bad? How worse?
This is the second consecutive season Cleveland’s starting rotation has resembled a multi-car pileup on the freeway. So much so that the Guardians are currently operating with a starting rotation that includes three rookies, as Cleveland’s vaunted pitching factory has had to work overtime to keep up with the demand at the big-league level, not to mention the Guardians’ ongoing competition with Minnesota for first place in the AL Central.
The best of the bunch so far has been right-hander Bibee, selected by Cleveland in the fifth round of the 2021 draft, out of Cal State Fullerton. The other two rookies in the rotation are left-hander Logan Allen, a second-round pick in the 2017 draft out of Florida International, and right-hander Gavin Williams, selected with the 21st pick in the first round of the 2021 draft out of East Carolina University.
In a combined 34 starts, Bibee, Allen and Williams have a record of 11-6, with a 3.23 ERA.
More than that, they have helped keep Guardians’ rotation afloat through the team’s latest rash of pitching injuries. Consider the gap between Cleveland’s expected starting rotation as opposed to the three rookie starters:
The opening day starting rotation of Bieber, Triston McKenzie, Cal Quantrill, Aaron Civale, and Zach Plesac, all of them injured at one time or another this season, have a combined record of 11-16. The three rookies, Bibee, Allen, and Williams, have a combined record of 11-6.
Each of the three rookies have lower earned run averages than four of the five pitchers in Cleveland’s rotation on opening day: Bieber 3.77, Quantrill 6.45, McKenzie 4.50, and Plesac 7.59. Civale’s 2.71 ERA is lower than Williams’ 3.74, but higher than Bibee and Allen.
Some of those numbers from the veteran pitchers can be traced to injuries, and would undoubtedly be better if they were all healthy. But they’re not, and that’s where Bibee, Allen and Williams have ridden to the rescue.
Bibee’s coming out party came on July 22 when he pitched seven scoreless innings in a 1-0 win over the Phillies, in which he out-pitched Philadelphia’s Zach Wheeler.
“That was special. Tanner was really good, and he had to be,” said Guardians manager Terry Francona.
“I’m just going out there and trusting myself and not overthink stuff or over complicate it,” Bibee said.
It was a No.1 starter type of game for Bibee, who resembled the No. 1 starter he was replacing, Bieber, by filling up the strike zone: 73 of his 102 pitches were strikes.
With Bieber now on the injured list for at least another 60 days, Bibee for the time being may be that rarest of pitching animals: a No. 1 starter who is a rookie. Following Bibee’s masterpiece against the Phillies, it gave Cleveland’s rotation a combined 2.01 ERA since the All-Star break, which, at the time, was 91 points lower than the next closest team.
Losing almost your entire starting rotation to injuries in the first half of the season would, by definition, eliminate many teams from contention. Losing most of your rotation in the first half of the season and then having to replace them with three rookies, has “wait until next year” written all over it.
The Guardians got thrown that curveball, but Bibee, Allen and Williams have managed to keep the ship afloat, while they themselves are trying to get acclimated to life in the big leagues. It would not be an overstatement to say Cleveland’s ability to stay in contention in the AL Central race may hinge on the ability of the three rookies in the Guardians’ rotation to not pitch like rookies.