Ben Shelton and Dominic Thiem are very different players at opposite points in their respective careers.
While the big-serving Shelton has the potential to be the next big American star, Thiem was a star in a previous generation but has battled a plethora of injuries since he won the 2020 US Open.
Both players made it through Round 1 with relative ease, and with Holger Rune out of the tournament, there’s a real opportunity for the winner of this match to make a run.
Shelton is a slight -140 favorite over Thiem at the time of writing.
Dominic Thiem vs. Ben Shelton pick
There’s plenty to like about Ben Shelton’s game.
He’s athletic, energetic and has a monster serve that can win him cheap points or bail him out of trouble when he needs it.
But like a lot of young tennis players, Shelton can be a bit inconsistent and rely too heavily on his serve to bail him out.
He’s only 20 years old, so the rest of his game will develop in time, but he’ll need to improve his return numbers — he’s only won 13% of his return games this year per Ultimate Tennis Statistics — if he’s going to take the next step in his career.
At his best, Dominic Thiem was one of the sport’s best baseline players.
The Austrian puts some serious power behind his groundstrokes, but he’s also a deliberate player who’s able to absorb pace and plot his way through long rallies.
That ability will be key against someone who wants to keep points as short as possible.
If Thiem is able to find his way into Shelton’s service games, the Austrian has a great chance of advancing to Round 3.
This is a classic styles-make-fights matchup at a Grand Slam. While Shelton is the more talented, agile player at this point in their respective careers, Thiem has a massive edge in terms of experience and adaptability. The Austrian can beat you a number of different ways, while Shelton will need to have his serve humming in order to stand a chance.
I understand why the market has made Shelton the favorite in this matchup.
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Thiem has struggled with consistency since returning from injury and hasn’t played much tennis on hard courts of late, so it’s hard to trust that he’ll be able to hold up in what should be a tight match.
Additionally, Shelton is an American and will likely have the crowd behind him even though his opponent is a former champion here and was a fan favorite in his salad days.
That said, I’d make this match a coin flip given Thiem’s advantages in terms of experience and versatility.
There are plenty of paths to success for the Austrian in this contest, which makes him a valuable underdog on Wednesday.
The Bet: Dominic Thiem +115 (BetMGM)