The NFL Offensive Player of the Year award has been a wide receiver award over the last few years with pass-catchers winning in three of the last four seasons.
While the likes of the Vikings’ Justin Jefferson and Bengals’ Ja’Marr Chase certainly have the skills to win it (or, in Jefferson’s case, win it again), a running back with the 49ers may be the golden ticket in 2023.
Christian McCaffrey has been a do-it-all stud since he entered the NFL and sits at 15/1 (6.2 percent implied probability) at BetMGM to win his first NFL OPOY award.
He sits third on the odds board behind Chase (10/1) and Jefferson (13/1).
It may be confusing to have the favorites sitting at only 9.1 percent implied probability or less, but that’s the genuine joy of betting on this market — there are decent odds for nearly any choice you make.
As soon as Run-CMC joined the Niners in midseason, he immediately made an impact and lifted up the offense.
From Week 7 to Week 18, McCaffrey scored a touchdown in eight of 11 games and in all three playoff games.
He was counted on every week to show up and made quarterback Brock Purdy’s life so much easier once the latter took over as the starter in Week 13.
Having McCaffrey on the Niners already loaded offense felt like a cheat code.
San Francisco had him join the roster midweek to face the Chiefs and while they lost that game, the Niners didn’t lose again until the NFC Championship game versus the Eagles.
Health has been a concern for McCaffrey as he only had played 10 games in 2020 and 2021 combined.
But in 2022, he managed to play all 17 games (between two teams) and finished with 244 carries and 85 catches, his most in a season since 2019.
Part of debunking the injury myth is McCaffrey isn’t counted on offensively with the 49ers like he was with Carolina, where he was their entire offense.
Having complementary pieces such as WR Deebo Samuel and RB Eli Mitchell to give him a breather should do wonders for his health in 2023.
It also doesn’t hurt that the Niners have arguably the best left tackle in Trent Williams along with All-Pro fullback Kyle Juszczyk clearing the way.
Betting on the NFL?
He may not break any records like Cooper Kupp and Michael Thomas did en route to winning OPOY, but if he plays at least 16 games, there’s a great chance McCaffrey leads the team in carries, targets and touchdowns.
Most fantasy projections have McCaffrey with over 1,000 yards rushing, close to 100 catches and 15 combined rushing/receiving touchdowns.
If he’s putting up those kinds of numbers, we may not only be talking about OPOY but perhaps also being in the mix for NFL Most Valuable Player.
That being said, the one position you can likely pass on is quarterback for OPOY odds.
Even an amazing quarterback such as Patrick Mahomes, who led the NFL in passing touchdowns and passing yards in 2022 and won NFL MVP, finished a distant second in OPOY voting with 10 first-place votes compared to Jefferson’s 37.
Stick to skill-position players for this market.