The market will end 2023 with both lower rates and stocks, says Carter Worth
Worth Charting CEO Carter Worth is going against consensus by betting on a weakening dollar and falling interest rates and oil prices.
“I think when you get so much crowding and the sequence calls for a counter trend, try to play for it,” Worth told CNBC’s “The Exchange” on Wednesday. “My judgment is the timing here is to be buying bonds and to be fading the dollar.”
Generally, declining interest rates boost stock prices, so Worth’s forecast could provide fuel for the investors who predict a year-end stock market rally. But Worth cautioned that asset class relationships aren’t always perfectly inverse, and believes instead that the market will end up with both lower rates and lower stocks at the end of 2023.
— Lisa Kailai Han
Rate uncertainty drove Tuesday’s selloff, but there is a limit to how high yields will go, says Vanguard’s Aliaga-Diaz
Tuesday’s run-up in bond yields spooked investors, but the move is a side effect of markets transitioning to the new reality of higher interest rates, said Roger Aliaga-Diaz, global head of portfolio construction in Vanguard’s investment strategy group.
More than a year into the Federal Reserve’s policy tightening campaign, interest rates are likely to settle at a higher point compared to the pre-pandemic era, he said.
“The neutral policy rate is now higher on a permanent basis, perhaps 3.5% or 4%, and that gives you a higher floor for the 10-year bond compared to previous years,” Aliaga-Diaz told CNBC.
That adjustment results in two outcomes. “One it’s very painful on the front end because things are resetting to these higher rates,” he said. “And [two] you have the market digesting this news over the past few weeks.”
Aliaga-Diaz noted that while the central bank has communicated that rates will stay higher for longer, there’s also an implicit cap as to how high those rates will go. “It could be because of uncertainty and volatility that you can see higher 4 and even 5%,” he said, regarding the 10-year Treasury yield. “But we don’t see that as a permanent level of rates.”
-Darla Mercado
Oil hits lowest level since Sept. 5
Oil prices fell sharply Wednesday.