Minnesota Vikings (6-4) at Broncos (4-5)
When: 6:20 p.m. MT, Sunday
Where: Empower Field at Mile High
Radio/TV: 850 AM, 94.1 FM/NBC
Broncos-Vikings series: Denver is 7-8 in 15 regular-season games dating back to 1972; the Broncos lost 27-23 in the last meeting, on Nov. 17, 2019, in Minnesota, but have won three of the last four matchups.
In the spotlight
The Broncos have won three straight. Denver’s rushing attack has been effective, the defense has been solid and Russell Wilson has been one of the more efficient quarterbacks in the league.
Still, head coach Sean Payton doesn’t believe the team has found its sweet spot on offense.
“There are so many things we have to clean up and get better at,” Payton said. “We coach it. It’s the details. There’s so much that goes into it. It starts with building it around what you have and who we have.”
For Payton, discovering a sweet spot is like finding Shangri-La, meaning it doesn’t exist. Football is an imperfect game since there’s always something to improve on. But if the Broncos want to get anywhere close to perfection, it starts with reducing the penalties and self-inflicted mistakes.
This season, the Broncos have committed 64 penalties — tied for eighth-most in the NFL. In the win over the Bills on Monday night, Denver was flagged 10 times for 61 yards. It was the second time the Broncos had 10 penalties in a game.
Denver had five false start penalties, with two coming in the first quarter. The Broncos were also flagged three times for offensive holding. Meanwhile, center Lloyd Cushenberry III had three of the five penalties committed by Denver’s offensive line.
Even though the Broncos won, their self-inflicted woes stalled drives. In the first quarter, Denver faced a third-and-7 from Buffalo’s 25-yard line when right tackle Mike McGlinchey was penalized for a false start. With Denver facing third-and-12, running back Samaje Perine’s 8-yard run was well short of a first down, forcing the Broncos to kick a field goal.
McGlinchey has committed a team-high eight penalties, according to Pro Football Focus.
“This game is hard to play when it’s third-and-15 against good pass rushers,” Wilson said. “That’s our focus…play clean football.”
Payton said Denver’s self-inflicted mistakes are “frustrating.” And sure, there are other things the Broncos need to work on to get better on offense. But going from third-and-5 to third-and-15 can be the difference in the outcome of a game.
And with the Broncos trying to climb into the playoff picture, the margin for error is slim.
Who has the edge?
When Broncos run
Sean Payton thought the Broncos could have run the ball better against the Bills even though they rushed for 122 yards, including 79 yards on 21 carries from Javonte Williams. At some point, Williams is going to surpass 100 yards rushing in a game. It’s just a matter of when. The Vikings have held opponents to under 100 yards rushing in three of the last four games. Edge: Broncos
When Broncos pass
Russell Wilson has completed 67.9% of his passes. He has also been sacked 30 times. Minnesota blitzes on 49% of drop backs, the highest percentage in the league. Vikings edge rusher Danielle Hunter is tied with Browns star Myles Garrett for the most sacks with 11. Keeping him away from Wilson will be critical. Edge: Even
When Vikings run
Minnesota has one of the worst rushing attacks in the league. The Vikings are 29th in rushing yards per game (85.7) and tied for 25th in rushing touchdowns with four. Denver allowed 192 yards on the ground to the Bills, re-exposing an issue that plagued Denver early on this season. But for the most part, the Broncos have been solid against the run in recent weeks. Edge: Broncos
When Vikings pass
Quarterback Joshua Dobbs has thrown for 426 yards and three touchdowns in two games with the Vikings. T.J. Hockenson has been one of the best tight ends in football, averaging 94.3 receiving yards in the last four games. It remains unclear whether All-Pro receiver Justin Jefferson, sidelined since a Week 5 hamstring injury, will return to the field Sunday night. So expect the Vikings to continue to lean on Hockenson. The Broncos have recorded five interceptions in three games. Edge: Broncos
Special teams
Denver rookie wide receiver Marvin Mims Jr. has already become one of the best returners in the business. He was named AFC special teams player of the week after logging a 31-yard kick return and punt returns of 17 and 27 yards in Buffalo. The Vikings are 29th in field goal percentage (75%). Edge: Broncos
Coaching
Payton and Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell have helped engineer midseason turnarounds. Minnesota has won five straight, including two in a row with a quarterback the franchise traded for just a couple of weeks ago. The Broncos have won three in a row while knocking off the Chiefs and Bills in back-to-back games. While Denver’s defense has drastically improved, the offense still has work to do. Special teams coordinator Ben Kotwica has transformed a unit that struggled in 2022. Edge: Vikings
Tale of the tape
| Broncos | Vikings | |
|---|---|---|
| Total offense | 301.9 (23rd) | 358.1 (10th) |
| Rush offense | 117.3 (12th) | 85.7 (29th) |
| Pass offense | 184.6 (28th) | 272.4 (3rd) |
| Points per game | 21.8 (T-15) | 23.3 (12th) |
| Total Defense | 401.8 (32nd) | 323.2 (13th) |
| Run defense | 158.3 (32nd) | 98.8 (10th) |
| Pass defense | 243.4 (23rd) | 224.4 (16th) |
| Points allowed | 27.6 (32nd) | 20.9 (14th) |
By the numbers
9: The number of touchdown passes thrown by Wilson in the last five games.
266: The number of receiving yards for running back Samaje Perine, third most on the team.
24.6: The number of points the Vikings have averaged during their five-game win streak.
7: The number of teams Dobbs has played for since 2017.
Bet on it
Line: Broncos -2.5
Joshua Dobbs is playing well, and his story is incredible. The Broncos, however, have their own Cinderella story in the making and will not let the rocket scientist put a stop to it.
Prop bet: Over/under 42.5
I would take over. The Broncos have scored 24 points in each of the last two games. Expect Russell Wilson to put together a solid performance under the bright lights.
Post predictions
Parker Gabriel, beat writer: Broncos 23, Vikings 21
Two weeks ago this matchup seemed primed to get flexed out of Sunday night. Now? Neither team has lost since Kansas City beat the Vikings on Oct. 8 and then Denver four days later. Sean Payton’s side has won three straight, has good vibes (vulnerabilities, too) and a home crowd that should be juiced for prime time. This team might just have figured out how to avoid what would be a real letdown.
Ryan McFadden, beat writer: Broncos 27 Vikings 24
I’m sticking with the Broncos for the second straight week because of their defense. They have managed to contain Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes, so I’m confident defensive coordinator Vance Joseph will figure out how to slow down Joshua Dobbs. The Broncos will head into Thanksgiving week with a .500 record. Crazy, right?
Sean Keeler, columnist: Vikings 21, Broncos 20
The Lazarus Bowl? The Risner Bowl? AFC New Money (Broncos) meets NFC New Money (Vikes) in a battle of two 0-3 teams left for dead on Columbus Day. Minnesota’s thrown only one interception in its last six games, while the Broncos have picked off eight passes over their last six. The Orange & Blue have the hottest secondary in the NFL right now, but can Denver win a game in which it doesn’t also don’t win big when it comes to the turnover margin?
Matt Schubert, sports editor: Broncos 20, Vikings 17
Minnesota doesn’t have the run game to expose the Broncos’ one glaring defensive weakness, and as solid as Joshua Dobbs has been over the past couple of weeks, there’s a reason he was available for a sixth-round pick. It’s been established over the past three games: Denver doesn’t need a good offense to win, just a competent one. As scary as this Minnesota defense is, Russell Wilson and Co. should do just enough to get to .500.
Want more Broncos news? Sign up for the Broncos Insider to get all our NFL analysis.