The road ahead remains long.
The odds aren’t quite in Han Solo territory anymore, but the math still isn’t great.
In the moments after Denver’s 21-20, last-minute Sunday night win against Minnesota, however, the Broncos locker room crossed a certain kind of football threshold.
The P-word started percolating.
Four straight wins will do that.
A brutal start to the season feels like ancient history.
Success now isn’t measured in just figuring out how to win a game.
From here on out, the only real success is figuring out a way to keep playing past the first weekend of January.
“When we were 1-5, you’d just beg for anything,” Broncos defensive lineman Zach Allen told The Denver Post. “Now we’ve got playoff aspirations and a lot of guys in this locker room have played playoff football and know what it takes. Obviously, we’re happy with the win and you’ll take them, but we’re going to face some really good teams down the stretch and we can’t allow ourselves to keep making those mistakes.”
Those mistakes include allowing 175 rushing yards and a pair of red zone touchdowns. They include letting Minnesota quarterback Josh Dobbs escape their clutches for a touchdown pass and 10-yard touchdown run.
The past four times out, though, Denver’s figured out a way to overcome those type of moments and put teams away. First Green Bay, then Kansas City and Buffalo, and now the Vikings.
“It’s nice to know that, obviously, we can find ways to win no matter what the situation is,” Allen said. “We’ve had a few gritty wins, stuff like that. At the end of the day we want to start winning games more decisively and in less of a frantic situation like that. Defensively, the way we played against the run tonight was not good enough. But it’s encouraging that you’re able to find ways to win despite that.
“If we just kind of fix those things, we shouldn’t even be in those situations.”
Here’s the situation Denver’s in after 11 weeks: They’re 5-5 and on Sunday alone jumped from last place in the AFC West to second, ahead of Las Vegas (5-6) and the Los Angeles Chargers (4-6).
They went from No. 13 in the AFC to tied for ninth with Cincinnati and Indianapolis.
Modeling still shows long odds for Sean Payton’s team to actually make the postseason, with the New York Times’ version pegging Denver at a 21% likelihood. That number, though, is up from 11% last week and a far cry from less than 1% after six games.
And while the win against the Vikings certainly doesn’t hurt, wins within the conference are critical. That’s why upcoming games against Cleveland (7-3) and then at Houston (6-4) and the Chargers are critical.
“The best thing is we’re getting a small taste of what winning feels like around here,” said quarterback Russell Wilson, who at one point played in the postseason eight of nine years in Seattle between 2013-21. “There’s a lot more winning that we have to do. There’s a lot more great teams ahead of us. In terms of next week, we play a really great team in terms of Cleveland and we’re going to enjoy this thing together.”
Beat the Browns, the NYT model says, and the odds jump to 33%. Get the next two and it’s about 50%. Three straight and you’re up to about 75%.
Just as critically, though, the Broncos really only have room for two losses – and would do well to have just one of them come against an AFC foe.
“It’s all you can ask for is to put yourself in that position,” Allen said. “There’s still a long way to go and you’ve got to take it week by week. Now we’ve got the Browns and they’re in the hunt, too. The nice thing is we kind of control our own destiny because we play a lot of teams that are also in it.
“You’re getting head-to-head, you’re not hoping for tiebreakers with other teams and stuff like that.”
Head to head, but don’t get too far ahead. That’s the mantra going forward.
“If you look too far ahead you can get blinded by certain things,” defensive lineman Mike Purcell said. “That’s one of the biggest things we’ve been able to do so far the past four weeks is just take it one game at a time.”
Want more Broncos news? Sign up for the Broncos Insider to get all our NFL analysis.