This state of affairs suggests the current level of support for Ukraine is no longer sufficient to shift the balance of the war. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky continues to appeal to Western countries to increase arms supplies.
But due to the conflict between Israel and Hamas, and the weariness of Americans over the seemingly endless Ukrainian conflict, in which US resources are being drained, the media is increasingly discussing the possibility of a ceasefire.
As a result, the question arises: is it time to pursue a truce between Kyiv and Moscow? Several reasons point towards this outcome.
First, the situation on the front line has remained static for an extended period, despite the efforts of all parties. Russia has shifted to a strategy of attrition, exploiting the issue of Ukraine’s corruption and its ineffective use of Western military aid.
A significant battlefield change could occur only with a major escalation of armed conflict, potentially involving the use of more lethal weaponry by one party. In particular, both Ukraine and Russia are employing cluster munitions, which are prohibited by the UN Convention. Ukraine’s potential acquisition of depleted uranium shells for Abrams tanks could also be a dangerous step towards a nuclear conflict.
Second, the United States has depleted Europe’s stocks of former Soviet military equipment by convincing governments to transfer them to Ukraine. This strategic move has not only resulted in long-term contracts to shore up the production and maintenance of US military equipment but has also sidelined Russian companies.
As a consequence, the US military-industrial complex has emerged as the primary supplier of new military equipment for Europe. It is noteworthy, however, that Germany is also supplying weapons to Kyiv, posing a potential challenge to US dominance in the arms sector in the future.
03:42
Ukraine says Russian strike killed over 50 in one of the deadliest attacks of the war
Ukraine says Russian strike killed over 50 in one of the deadliest attacks of the war
Third, the US now holds a dominant position in the European gas market. Before the Ukraine war, Russia was a major supplier of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to European countries. After the attack on the Nord Stream pipeline however, the Kremlin lost its ability to use energy as a means of coercion.
US Assistant Secretary of State for Energy Resources Geoffrey Pyatt said earlier this month that Europe now accounted for 70 per cent of all US LNG exports; he has also emphasised the importance of halting the Russian Arctic LNG 2 project. But achieving that goal requires significant financial resources and would risk further straining relations with Moscow.
Fourth, providing financial support to Ukraine is proving costly for American taxpayers. In June last year, inflation surged by 9.1 per cent year on year, its highest in over four decades; the Federal Reserve’s key interest rate is at its highest in 22 years. According to Gallup, 41 per cent of Americans believe President Joe Biden is providing too much help to Kyiv, and this figure is expected to rise.
What if a US under Trump or DeSantis turns its back on the Ukraine war?
Prioritising aid to Ukraine over implementing more effective inflation-combating measures has led to public dissatisfaction with the White House. European countries are also expressing war fatigue and increasingly divided on the wisdom of continuing to support Kyiv. Additionally, the effectiveness of financial aid to Kyiv is seen as diminishing due to the country’s high level of corruption.
Finally, achieving a ceasefire could be a pivotal factor in Biden’s re-election campaign. The administration’s approval rating has plummeted to a low of 40 per cent amid the conflict in the Middle East, according to recent polls.
Former president Donald Trump has been criticising Biden over the situation in Ukraine, claiming the president has mishandled relations with Russia and saying he could resolve the conflict within 24 hours. If Biden can broker a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia, it would neutralise Trump’s attacks and significantly bolster his image, improving his chances for a second term.
01:03
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky calls on UN to strip ‘criminal’ Russia of veto power
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky calls on UN to strip ‘criminal’ Russia of veto power
But the primary challenge for the White House is convincing Zelensky to engage in negotiations. Zelensky remains steadfast in his refusal to hold talks with Putin and is determined to reclaim all Ukrainian territories, including Crimea.
While the US officially supports Ukraine’s fight, Kyiv’s aspirations are being hindered by the depletion of its military resources. Moreover, there is increasing discussion among Ukrainian politicians about the need to mobilise more people, including younger people and more women.
As a result, Biden is faced with the crucial task of persuading Zelensky to initiate negotiations with Putin, while also being careful not to overtly pressure him.
Even though the Kremlin holds the advantage on the battlefield, the White House dominates the information sphere. The US government should prepare the international community for a potential ceasefire and present a peace agreement between Kyiv and Moscow as a victory for the collective West.
Peter Sojka, a fellow at the Slovak Academy of Sciences, specialises in foreign relations and geopolitics
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