For years, rich countries’ unmet promise to provide US$100 billion a year to support lower-income countries bred anger and frustration. War coming on top of expenses could mean more of the same. Developed countries could well say they have to manage development aid in the war’s aftermath – rendering them unable to contribute sufficiently towards climate action.
Yet even US$100 billion is a mere fraction of what is needed to limit the global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2030 – about US$4.5 trillion annually is needed in renewable energy investments to stay on course, according to the International Energy Agency.
The loss and damage fund is fraught with its own set of problems. Pitched as a task only the likes of the World Bank can manage, the fund is far from becoming anything substantial. That the World Bank is largely influenced by donors from the Global North, is inclined towards loans instead of grants, and has been criticised for its handling of climate-related affairs, does not inspire confidence.
Additionally, the traditional selection of the bank’s president by a pivotal stakeholder like the United States elevates the risk of climate financing getting tangled in political agendas. This situation is particularly worrisome for countries not aligned with Western politics, notably in the latest war where the US is staunchly supporting one side. Such countries might find themselves significantly disadvantaged.
Furthermore, reality may not align with the expectations that major contributions to the loss and damage fund are to come from the US, Britain and the European Union.
Recent efforts in wealthy countries to shift the narrative of vulnerability from the Global South to the Global North, coupled with these countries’ approach to the war in Gaza under what looks like a “white man’s burden” ideology, might impede meaningful contributions to the fund.
Geopolitical tensions, growing divisions and the fragile state of multilateralism may also jeopardise cooperation at Cop28.
07:25
Cop28 prepares temperature check on climate at Dubai meeting
Cop28 prepares temperature check on climate at Dubai meeting
The world’s largest economies and major greenhouse gas emitters, the US and China, find themselves at odds, while alliances between Russia and China are growing stronger. Concurrently, India is procuring discounted oil from Russia, which is seeking closer relationships with countries across the Middle East and Northern Africa (Mena).
With the Gaza war creating new divisions between the West and the Mena region, concerns are arising over whether global leaders can unite under a singular, cohesive position on the climate crisis. This seems doubtful. For instance, the Jordanian government, despite having a peace agreement with Israel, has expressed hesitancy over entering into an agreement to trade solar energy for desalinated water, citing the conflict in Gaza.
Asia is lagging behind Europe in the transition to green shipping
Another aspect to consider is the global refugee crisis. The UN Refugee Agency says a record 110 million people have been forcibly displaced amid new outbreaks of conflict and long-running crises. The Gaza war has the potential to escalate these numbers.
For the countries receiving these refugees, the influx places additional strain on resources that could have otherwise been allocated to addressing climate change challenges.
Finally, and most significantly, there is the persistent concern surrounding the UAE’s expansion of fossil fuel initiatives. Throughout the year, activists and civil society groups worldwide have tirelessly advocated for closer scrutiny of the hosts of this crucial climate summit.
The outbreak of war might have been a relief for the host country, diverting attention entirely from this pressing issue. Yet focus must return.
01:07
US climate envoy John Kerry meets China’s top diplomat Wang Yi in latest bid to repair frayed ties
US climate envoy John Kerry meets China’s top diplomat Wang Yi in latest bid to repair frayed ties
Amid the turmoil, there might be a glimmer of hope. Following the wave of global protests against the West, there is a desperate need for positive media coverage and improved public relations. Cop28 might be the perfect opportunity.
This might push developed countries into pouring more funds into the cause to compensate for their silence on the humanitarian crisis. Although this is not ideal, developing countries would readily embrace this opportunity.
At Cop28, it’s imperative that the global community addresses both long-standing and emerging issues with care. World leaders must transcend the divisions and constraints imposed by war and conflict, uniting against the existential threat of climate change, which affects not just specific countries but the entire planet.
The UAE, as host, bears the responsibility of maintaining a laser-focused climate discourse centred on the summit’s fundamental objectives: amplifying climate financing to reduce emissions, while expediting climate recovery and fortifying resilience among the world’s most vulnerable populations.
Rizwan Basir is a sociologist who works as a climate finance specialist at the Climate Resourcing Coordination Centre (CRCC), based in Islamabad, Pakistan
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