ACC college basketball picks, best bet

We’re knee-deep into ACC college basketball conference play, which is always a fun time of year. 

And matchups between Syracuse and Duke are always worth watching. 

Of course, this isn’t your typical Orange team. They moved on from Jim Boeheim, and first-year head coach Adrian Autry has brought Syracuse into the 21st century – the Orange are now uptempo and guard-first on offense and primarily man-to-man on defense.

So, while Duke has won seven straight against Syracuse – the Orange’s last win over the Blue Devils came in January of 2019 – things could be different this year. 

I’m unsure if the Orange break the losing streak here, but I’m betting they cover a two-touchdown spread. 

Syracuse vs. Duke odds

Syracuse vs. Duke prediction

(9 p.m. ET, ESPN)

The key to stopping Duke is two-fold. 

First, you need to keep the Blue Devils out of transition. They love to run when they can. 

Second, you need to hang down low with superstar big man Kyle Filipowski. 

I think the Orange can handle both tasks. 

They’re elite defending in the open court, ranking seventh nationally in transition PPP allowed (.78). 

Their interior defensive metrics are shaky, but they rank above average in pick-and-roll roll-man PPP allowed (.96) and boast elite block metrics (13.8%, 24th nationally) behind the big-man duo of 6-foot-8 Maliq Brown and 7-foot-4 Naheem McLeod. 

Also, don’t overlook 6-foot-9 Benny Williams. The Orange have bodies to throw on Filipowski. 

Conversely, as alluded to, Coach Autry has crafted Syracuse into a guard-first, isolation-heavy, rim-running uptempo offense spearheaded by the elite backcourt of Judah Mintz and JJ Starling. 

Mintz could be a top-five point guard in the ACC. He’s dropping 19 points and four assists per game while also nabbing over two steals per game defensively. 

He’s among the nation’s most underrated players and the type of guy we should be betting on as we enter conference play.