Should Denver draft QB at No. 12 no matter what?

Denver Post Broncos writer Parker Gabriel posts his Broncos Mailbag weekly during the season and periodically during the offseason. Click here to submit a question.

Hello Parker! I get why people want Denver to draft a quarterback with the 12th selection. But with all the holes on a team already among the oldest ones in the NFL, where’s the value in reaching for a second- or third-round graded QB at No. 12 overall? Unless Sean Payton really sees something in the fourth or fifth QB still available, it looks like a(nother) gamble to me. Maybe they can trade back or get an early second-rounder to use on a QB. But not at 12. Your thoughts?

— Yoann, Beine-Nauroy, France

Hey Yoann, great question and thanks for kicking us off this week. This is, essentially, the central challenge for the Broncos in this spring’s draft. They are in the market for a quarterback, no doubt about it. And if you don’t have a quarterback, you’re not going anywhere.

At the same time, Denver’s needs list is long, which could justify several different positions in the first round. Tackle? For sure. Interior defensive lineman? Yes. Edge? No doubt. Cornerback? Wouldn’t probably be popular after taking Pat Surtain II in 2021, but yes. Wide receiver? Oh, yeah. What if Georgia tight end Brock Bowers slips to No. 12?

To your point, it’s going to depend on how Denver’s scouts and head coach Sean Payton have the quarterbacks stacked. Then in the lead-up to the draft you model several different scenarios so that when the first round starts, you’re not scrambling. It’s one thing to fork over a truckload of assets to get into the top three. It’s a different story if, say, LSU’s Jayden Daniels makes it to No. 7. Is that a better trade-up opportunity? And we don’t know yet where the medicals will land with someone like Washington’s Michel Penix, Jr. If you like him, J.J. McCarthy, Bo Nix, etc., then the challenge is understanding the rest of the league. Do you have to take him at 12 (assuming you have that kind of grade on him)? Or can you trade back, pick up a Day 2 pick and address QB plus another position in the top 50 or so?

Or maybe you’re not sold on the second wave of quarterbacks and find somebody who is, trade back and fill more than one need in the early stages of the draft.

That’s what makes the Broncos’ current draft position a fascinating one and a topic we’ll probably spend more time on than any other single item over the next three months.

Parker, maybe I don’t understand but it seems like if the Broncos wanted to play hardball with Russell Wilson they could present him with this option: Either help us out with a trade, restructure, etc. (whatever the Broncos’ position is) or we will keep you and make you inactive every week. Kinda messes up the end of his career — if he won’t work with the team.

Thanks for your article and insights.

— Rick S., Middletown, Va. (Broncos fan since 1976)

Yeah, Rick, it’s a good question. It is a path the Broncos could explore, but it’s about as close to the nuclear option as you can get. There are several factors to pulling off such a move and they all add up to make it unlikely.

First, there’s no way Wilson and his agent are blinking before March 17, when the next $37 million in 2025 becomes guaranteed. That’s the trigger that started this whole process in the first place. So add that to the $39 million cash already owed to Wilson in 2024 and to the $85 million in cap charges you have to account for.

Maybe from there you can squeeze hard enough that Wilson cracks and agrees to renegotiate his deal to facilitate a trade, but can you get it down well past the original place to where you’re getting a much better deal? And at what reputational cost? Play out what that ends up looking like: A quarterback “competition” nobody believes Wilson can actually win and then he sits on the bench until the worry about age, opportunity and legacy gets bad enough that he begs for a trade? No way that goes over well in the locker room or does anything but hurt the organization in the eyes of players and agents across the league.

Hello, Parker. I appreciate your Broncos coverage. I have two questions. One, by Sean Payton’s own words, a coach should tailor his system to fit his players’ strengths and disguise their weaknesses. Would he consider altering his offensive philosophy and expectations to better fit Russell Wilson’s skills and lack thereof?

Two: I didn’t watch much college football because I worked all day Saturdays, but I was impressed with Tanner Mordecai’s performance in the ReliaQuest Bowl. The early draft prediction is he’ll be undrafted. Should the Broncos consider picking him in a late round?

Thanks, and good wishes for 2024.

— Fred Waiss, Prairie du Chien, Wis.

Hey Fred, thanks for writing in and good questions.

Payton would tell you that he did try to tailor his offensive plan to Wilson. After the Broncos struggled to find consistency early in the season, they trimmed down, went more run-heavy and played more conservatively in the passing game. It worked fine when it coincided with the defense forcing turnovers by the bundle, but it always seemed like Payton was itching to dial it back up.

Whether Payton went far enough to try to highlight Wilson’s strengths is going to depend on who you ask, but the coach clearly couldn’t stand Denver’s performance in the low red zone. Failures there sparked a few of the most noteworthy interactions between the two, and Payton after the season called their goal-to-go offense “awful.” He also thought Wilson was too loose with the ball when Denver tried to get more aggressive from about the Houston game on.

There are two sides to this coin. Payton is fond of saying that if students are getting bad grades, look to the teacher. He’s not absolved just because Wilson didn’t play exactly the way he wanted. At the same time, quarterback’s the most important position in the game and a coach — particularly one with Payton’s resume — is going to get to pick who he wants at that spot. How could you say you’re giving your coach the best chance to build a winning program if you don’t give him that?

There was no other choice but Wilson a year ago when Payton got hired, so he gave it a shot. But it’s pretty clear 2023 was a trial run and Payton wasn’t convinced the partnership would work.