Citing an anonymous Japanese diplomat, he added that “whoever is elected in the United States, you have to act like it’s Christmas morning”, suggesting that despite being wary of Trump’s return, allies would try to work with the US.
The Indo-Pacific was one of many theatres that the US was paying attention to, along with Ukraine and the Middle East, amid a fiercely partisan debate domestically over the federal budget, he added.
If Trump withdrew American support for Ukraine’s war, the “knock-on effects” both in Europe and the Indo-Pacific would be “quite vast”, Edel said.
Ballot power: 2024 elections could steer global relations for years to come
Ballot power: 2024 elections could steer global relations for years to come
For instance, he has claimed he would end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours of being president.
Noting that Trump never publicly uttered the phrase South China Sea during his presidency, Poling said there were concerns in the Philippines about “unpredictability” over where the former leader stood on the contentious region.
“It’s just not an issue he cared about,” added Poling, a South China Sea expert, calling it a “tall order” to convince Trump that a rules-based order and freedom of navigation were in America’s national interest.
What is Trump’s second-term agenda? Revenge, trade wars and mass deportations
What is Trump’s second-term agenda? Revenge, trade wars and mass deportations
The two Asian countries have long viewed each other with deep suspicion, but in recent years have cooperated on overlapping strategic interests.
Johnstone believed “this might be a year where you see a real sort of solidifying of the Japan-South Korea leg of this trilateral in particular”.
Amid concerns over what a Trump presidency would likely mean for Washington’s standing in the eyes of its allies, experts at an Atlantic Council event on Tuesday stressed the importance of working with democracies to build defence capabilities.
One of democracy’s fundamental comparative advantages was that it facilitates “attracting allies and partners” in capabilities that are currently undervalued by Washington, said James “Hondo” Geurts, a former undersecretary of the US Navy.
G7 warns China on South China Sea, urges it to press Russia to exit Ukraine
G7 warns China on South China Sea, urges it to press Russia to exit Ukraine
The retired US Air Force colonel’s remarks came at the launch of a report aimed at improving both the implementation of technologies and management of defence resources in the US.
“We need to have the knowledge, we need to build networks, we need to start building trust, and then that can really open up a much greater industrial capacity than just what we have onshore here on the US side,” Geurts said.
“Great ideas exist all around the world, not just in the US.”
Additional reporting by Igor Patrick in Washington