By Anna Helhoski | NerdWallet
Despite the prevalence of TikTok videos and recent articles detailing stories of individual college graduates struggling to find good jobs, the data tells a different story.
After all, the overall labor market is stronger than it’s been in decades. And Zoomers who recently graduated from college are certainly better off, in most respects, than previous generations of new grads.
“If you’re a recent college grad, right now things aren’t booming with opportunities like they were a couple years ago,” says Nick Bunker, economic research director for North America at Indeed Hiring Lab. “But it’s still really a relatively solid labor market. And hopefully, fingers crossed, the market stays strong for a couple years. And that gives you more opportunity to find a job as opposed to hanging your hat for the first six months after you graduate.”
When you compare the labor markets faced by Zoomers with previous generations, recent college grads now are better off than their older counterparts: Zoomer grads are earning much higher salaries today than Gen X did in the mid-1990s. Inflation may eat away at Gen Z’s high wages, but it doesn’t touch the stagflation of the 1970s and 1980s that baby boomer college graduates encountered.
The short recession that Gen Z experienced at the start of the pandemic is certainly no Great Recession, which technically lasted less than two years, but was followed by several years of tepid economic growth. That period stymied recent millennial graduates during crucial early employment years and is likely to negatively impact their lifetime earnings.
“It’s not just the year that you graduate,” says Bunker. “Your first years out probably make the most difference because that’s when you’re getting your foot on the career ladder.”
Gen Z bounced back fast
Despite the fact that the oldest cohort of Zoomers — 2020 grads — entered a job market with the highest unemployment rate in the modern era, that recession lasted just two months. And what followed was one of the strongest economic bounce backs ever.
The nation’s unemployment rate has hovered between 3.4% and 4% since December 2021. The current rate, 4.1%, remains among the lowest in 50 years, which means Zoomer college graduates have strong prospects for getting jobs right out of school and moving up the career ladder.
Bunker says the job market has cooled compared with two years ago. There is far less competition among employers than in 2022, which means fewer opportunities, according to Bunker. But it’s not all that dramatic in the broader context.
“If we wind the clock a little bit more and compare to what we saw pre-pandemic, it’s around those levels,” Bunker says. He adds that when compared with previous cohorts of graduates, job opportunities are roughly in line with those enjoyed by millennials who completed college in the early 2000s.
Gen Z’s unemployment outlier
Even with all of the positive aspects of the current labor market, there’s still a unique trend among recent Gen Z graduates that earlier generations haven’t faced: an unemployment rate that’s higher than overall unemployment.
It’s a particular quirk seen when you parse unemployment data among recent graduates over the past 30 years. The unemployment rate as of March 2024 for recent graduates was 4.7% — a full percentage point higher than the overall unemployment rate at that time, 3.7%.
This is an unusual development. Before 2018, the unemployment rate among recent grads was almost always lower than overall unemployment, due to strong employer demand for highly educated workers.
The reversal is likely because there’s been a surge in demand for non-college-educated service workers since the pandemic.
Underemployment is still high among recent grads
Labor data shows that underemployment — the rate of those with college degrees who are working jobs that don’t require degrees — has always been higher among recent graduates compared with all bachelor’s degree holders.
“They go ahead and get that college degree and then they can’t get on a career track that uses that education,” says Elise Gould, senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute (EPI), a nonpartisan think tank.
It doesn’t help that certain job sectors have become more crowded. Majoring in computer science, for example, doesn’t guarantee a job anymore as tech companies pull back from hiring.
Underemployment among computer science majors is higher than those who study health-related programs, education or engineering, according to a February 2024 report by The Burning Glass Institute, a labor market analytics firm, and Strada Education Foundation. But fewer computer science majors are underemployed when compared with those who study social sciences, psychology, humanities and business management.
As of March 2024, some 40% of recent graduates are working in jobs that don’t require a degree versus 33% of all college graduates, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Salaries for recent grads have spiked
Gen Z college graduates can expect higher-than-ever salaries when they enter the job market: The typical recent college graduate with a four-year degree can anticipate a salary of around $62,609, according to an analysis of employer job postings and third-party data sources by ZipRecruiter, a job posting site. That roughly matches the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s finding of $60,000 as the median annual wage for a recent graduate with a bachelor’s degree.
As the chart below shows, current median salaries are above those held by earlier generations of newly minted graduates when adjusted for inflation.
Even though salaries are at a peak for recent grads, the latest cohort might not be earning what they expect: A survey released by Real Estate Witch, a housing market research and review site, found 2023 graduates expected to make around $85,000 at their first job and the minimum salary they said they would accept is around $73,000. However, Real Estate Witch found that the average starting salary for a recent grad is about $56,000.
“If you’re a young person graduating now, maybe the differential between what you expected and what reality is, is quite large,” says Bunker.
It’s also possible that wage growth for young new hires may have plateaued as the momentum in the overall labor market that was pushing wages higher has now slowed, says Liv Wang, senior data scientist at ADP Research Institute, which measures workforce data. “If we look at ages from 23 to 26 — that includes a lot of recent grads — and the median hourly base pay for them is like $17, and that per-hour has been little changed since June 2022,” says Wang, citing recent ADP data.
Still, as Gould points out, young workers are disproportionately lower-wage workers — even if they have a college degree.
Gen Z grads do face economic and employment uncertainty
Today’s college graduates heading into the workforce aren’t free from economic challenges. They’re dealing with elevated inflation that eats away at their wages. And when you earn less — as most young workers do — higher costs take a bigger bite. In recent years, the cost of housing has skyrocketed, especially for renters, while health insurance and car ownership have both grown more expensive. And, Gould says, like generations before, young workers fresh out of college who have student loan debt will carry an additional burden.
Salaries, overall, may be higher than ever, but it varies based on your degree. And there are still persistent gender and racial inequities to earnings, Gould points out.
But once again, the data shows it is still a pretty good time to be a college graduate and, in general, to have a degree.
It still pays to get a college degree
Those with college degrees remain more likely to be employed than workers in the same age group, ages 22 to 27, according to an analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Even an associate degree or professional certificate can give young workers a leg up, as many areas of the country are facing a shortage of middle-skills labor.
In March 2024 the unemployment rate for recent college grads — those ages 22 to 27 — was 4.7% compared with 6.2% for all young workers in the same age group.
Anna Helhoski writes for NerdWallet. Email: [email protected]. Twitter: @AnnaHelhoski.
The article Actually, the Job Market Isn’t So Bad for Gen Z College Grads originally appeared on NerdWallet.
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