Analyzing Nuggets mock draft projections for 2024 first-round pick

The Denver Nuggets possess the No. 28 overall pick in the upcoming 2024 NBA Draft, which will take place across two days for the first time this year: June 26-27. If the Nuggets use that first-round pick, who will they take? We react to the recent barrage of mock draft projections here.

Will the Nuggets draft a backup center?

The mock draft: ESPN, Jonathan Givony and Jeremy Woo

The pick: DaRon Holmes II, Dayton; 6-foot-9, 236 pounds

My take: The most popular Nuggets candidate among internet match-makers, Holmes named Nikola Jokic and Aaron Gordon as two of the players he looks up to the most at the combine. At his best, he fits the profile Denver needs of a rim-protecting, hard-working, perimeter-switching, floor-spacing, shot-making five who can anchor the second unit and maybe play the four next to Jokic as well. Then again, that sounds a lot like the ambitious vision for Zeke Nnaji, who hasn’t panned out so far.

Holmes’ combine measurements (the height, the weight, the 7-foot-1 wingspan) were eerily similar to Nnaji’s the year Denver drafted him 22nd. Holmes was an excellent two-way player above the rim in college, dunking and swatting with authority. But at his size, will that translate to the NBA in the limited minutes that Jokic’s backups — especially the young ones — tend to play?

The mock draft: Yahoo! Sports, Krysten Peek

The pick: DaRon Holmes II, Dayton; 6-9, 221 pounds

My take: One other thought about Holmes since he’s all the rage in Denver draft speculation right now. His 38.6% clip from 3-point range this season (his third year at Dayton) was an encouraging sign of developmental capability. Ideally, it means he’ll be a pick-and-pop threat in addition to pick-and-roll. But in the two previous seasons, he was 27% on low volume beyond the arc. When the sample size of efficient shooting is only one year, you always have to ask if it’s the real deal or a potential fluke.

At the end of the day, these quibbles should mostly be taken as evidence that anyone projected as a late first-round pick in a draft class this shaky has holes in their game. Even someone who appears to be universally recognized as a strong fit for the Nuggets. Using this pick is risky, the gamble in this case is that Holmes’ versatility prevails at a higher level than the Atlantic 10.

The mock draft: The Ringer, Kevin O’Connor

The pick: Kyle Filipowski, Duke; 6-11, 230 pounds

My take: The newest version of The Ringer’s mock draft has jumped on the Holmes bandwagon, so let’s rewind to the one before that. Remember when Jokic showed up late to a postgame news conference, startling everyone with his explanation that he was too hypnotized by March Madness to walk away from the locker room TV? Remember how charmed he was by the post moves of North Carolina State center D.J. Burns despite barely ever showing interest in college hoops? It would be an amusing turn of events if the Nuggets drafted the guy on the wrong end of that Elite Eight performance to back up Jokic.

In theory, Filipowski can provide a jolt of frontcourt offense to the bench with his face-up game. He has an impressive handle for a center, he sees the court well, and he’s a skilled passer. But the identity of Denver’s second unit is switchability at one through five, and Filipowski is more susceptible than Holmes to being exposed on the perimeter. Wingspan relative to height isn’t as notable either. He is, however, more battle-tested by his college competition. The Nuggets have Kansas, Kentucky, Arizona, Gonzaga and Virginia alumni. They’re missing Duke.

The mock draft: CBS Sports, David Cobb

The pick: Kel’el Ware, Indiana; 7-0, 230 pounds

My take: Sorta like the other prominent big man in this draft who played college ball in Indiana, Ware is proof of how unpredictable this year’s class is. In other mock drafts this week, he was projected as high as No. 9, thanks no doubt to the strong impression he left at the combine. So maybe it’s less likely that he’s still available once it’s Calvin Booth’s turn — that doesn’t mean he would be “falling” to No. 28 either.

Ware’s worth ethic was questioned when he transferred from Oregon, according to comments made by Indiana coach Mike Woodson. He wasn’t always a first-round guarantee. Even now, multiple mocks still have the floor-stretching center in the 20s. If he is on the board, his length and athleticism are enticing. (As for Purdue’s Zach Edey, I haven’t seen him appear on any mock drafts as a Denver selection, but I do think the Nuggets would give him a serious look if he were to fall to No. 28. Projections for the National Player of the Year have also been all over the place.)

Will the Nuggets draft a guard or wing?

The mock draft: Bleacher Report, Jonathan Wasserman

The pick: Baylor Scheierman, Creighton; 6-6, 202 pounds

My take: If the Nuggets anticipate not retaining Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, maybe they’ll feel more inclined to pursue wing depth through the draft. And regardless of Caldwell-Pope’s fate, it always helps to employ a surplus of shooters, especially because one of the wings Denver is banking on developmentally (Peyton Watson) has not been a 3-point threat so far.

Scheierman was a 39% marksman in his five-year college career, which started at South Dakota State. He’ll turn 24 before his rookie season begins, which might be viewed as a red flag by many teams, but not by the Nuggets due to the timing of their title window. He has positional size, crashes the glass and fits the description of a plug-and-play role player more than a long-term project. That might be what the Nuggets need if Christian Braun moves into the starting lineup and they find themselves in need of spacing in their second unit. Scheierman would also join Julian Strawther in the club of Denver first-round picks who played NCAA Tournament games at Ball Arena in 2023.

The mock draft: The Athletic, Sam Vecenie

The pick: Jaylon Tyson, California; 6-6, 218 pounds

My take: Tyson had to do a lot for Cal. The glass-half-empty view of him as a prospect is that he was a ball-dominant, empty-calories scorer for a bad Pac 12 team — that he doesn’t know how to be productive in a minimized role once the ball is taken out of his hands at the pro level. The glass-half-full view is that Denver needs secondary ball-handlers who can create for themselves, and Tyson played point guard last season despite having the body of a wing. He has a pull-up jumper game, and he’s comfortable posting up other guards and using his strength.

The year before he transferred to Cal, he shot 40.2% from three when he was less relied upon at Texas Tech. (He was 36% for the Bears.) Now, if his ability to create separation and knock down shots was better, he obviously wouldn’t be in the discussion at No. 28, so drafting someone with his profile risks him being an offensive liability rather than an asset. But maybe that’s a chance the Nuggets need to take for their scoring-starved bench unit.