New Zealand factory sees steeper contraction in June
New Zealand’s factory activity saw a steeper contraction in June, with the manufacturing purchasing managers index standing at 47.6, lower than the 48.9 recorded in May.
The reading means that New Zealand’s manufacturing sector has stayed in contraction territory for the fourth straight month, and is at the lowest level of activity since November 2022.
A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
— Lim Hui Jie
CPI rises less than expected in June
The consumer price index rose 0.2% in June and 3% from a year ago, the Labor Department said Wednesday. Economists polled by Dow Jones had expected a monthly increase of 0.3% and 3.1% on an annualized basis.
Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also increased less than anticipated.
— Samantha Subin
Odds of more Fed rate hikes in 2H fade after June inflation report
The odds that the Federal Reserve will raise rates again, after its next meeting on July 26, have faded on the back of Wednesday’s weaker-than-expected consumer price report for June.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, interest rate traders still see a 95% certainty that the central bank lifts its benchmark fed funds rates a quarter point, to 5.25%-5.50%, on July 26. But after that, things get dicey.
The chance that the Fed will go another quarter point at its September meeting (it skips August), has fallen to 13.3%, down from 22.3% on Tuesday and 18.1% a week ago. Odds that fed funds will stand a half point higher by the end of the Fed’s Nov. 1 meeting are now 26.5% compared with 36.2% yesterday and 31.6% one week ago.
By the time of the Fed’s last policy meeting of the year, on Dec. 13, odds that rates will be a half point higher than today’s 5.00%-5.25%, have slumped to 20.8% now from 32.4% on Tuesday and 28% one week back.
Meanwhile, the odds that the Fed will have reversed this month’s rate increase by yearend have risen to 14.9% from 10.2% yesterday and 12.6% last week.
— Scott Schnipper
Dollar index sinks to two-month low
The dollar index fell Wednesday after the consumer price index’s increase came in lighter than expected and at its lowest level since March 2021.
The dollar hit a session low of 101.049. That’s the lowest level since May 8, when the index hit a low of 101.041. The dollar index measures the greenback against a basket of six currencies.
— Gina Francolla, Michelle Fox
S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and Dow Transports touch highest levels since April 2022
Stocks rode a wave of optimism after June’s inflation report, lifting three key indexes to their highest levels in more than a year.
The S&P 500 notched a 52-week high, as did the Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Transportation Average on Wednesday. These were the highest levels for the three averages since April 2022.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are all on pace for three-day win streaks.
–Darla Mercado, Chris Hayes