Dangerous avalanche conditions will develop this weekend across the high country, prompting the Colorado Avalanche Information Center to issue a special avalanche advisory on Wednesday.
The current avalanche danger is rated “considerable,” which is Level 3 on the CAIC’s 1-5 scale, for nearly every region of the mountains. CAIC forecasters expect it to worsen this weekend, prompting the advisory.
“Very dangerous avalanche conditions will develop in some regions, with the most dangerous conditions developing Saturday afternoon and into Sunday,” the advisory said. “Avalanche conditions will be more dangerous than we’ve experienced in weeks. Adjust your weekend plans accordingly and check the forecast frequently for changing conditions.”
Following a relatively dry December and early January, an approaching system will deposit heavy snow on brittle slabs, complicated by high winds causing drifting snow, and those factors will set up prime conditions for avalanche activity. More than a dozen ski areas are expected to receive 20-40 inches of snow over the next five days.
“Observers reported triggering and seeing avalanches on Wednesday,” CAIC reported in its outlook for the northern mountains on Thursday. “Most were shallow or narrow. They will just get bigger as a series of storms will move across the Northern Mountains over the next few days. Expect periods of heavy snow and strong winds, which will drift snow onto easterly-facing aspects. The most dangerous spots will be the places where the new and wind-drifted snow is the deepest. The Park Range and Flat Tops will probably pass the tipping point first, with other areas only a day or two behind.”
The outlook is similar for the central mountains.
“Avalanche conditions are rapidly growing more dangerous with the combination of the new snow (finally!) and some pretty fierce winds forming wind-drifted slabs even below treeline,” CAIC said. “The new slab is developing over some very weak snow, and crust-facet combinations on southerly-facing slopes, from our prolonged drought period. Observers were already noting widespread collapsing.”
The southern mountains also will see increasing avalanche danger.
“By this weekend or early next week, the snowpack may reach critical levels and we could see a widespread natural avalanche cycle,” CAIC said. “This would leave us with very few safe places to travel.”
There have been no avalanche fatalities so far this season in Colorado, but four backcountry tourers were caught in a slide in the Elk Mountains near Marble in November. In the 2022-23 season, 21 were caught, 16 partially buried and 11 killed.
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