The 2023 portion of this NHL season has often been anything but typical for the Avalanche.
For a team that entered this campaign as one of the top contenders for the Stanley Cup, some of it has gone exactly as expected and other days have felt like they were extracted from a different world in an NHL multiverse.
The Avs will begin 2024 atop the Central Division standings if they prevail Sunday night against the San Jose Sharks. They could also be third in the division in points percentage.
They are certainly one of the best teams in the league, and might have a gear that no other club can get to. They have also had some awful, uncharacteristic performances, not to mention a few unexpected, viral postgame outbursts.
As the calendar flips to the new year, what might be on Colorado’s wish list in the next couple of months as the Avs gear up for a run at a second championship in three seasons?
1. Healthy returns for Lehkonen, Girard
This is an obvious one, but Artturi Lehknonen and Samuel Girard are key figures, both on the ice and for how the roster management might play out between now and the March 8 trade deadline. Avs coach Jared Bednar has noted a 10-to-12-week timeline for Lehkonen multiple times, which could mean a late January return.
Girard said he will return to the lineup Sunday after five weeks away from the team. He entered the NHL/NHLPA Players Assistance Program on Nov. 24 to seek help after dealing with anxiety and depression that led to alcohol abuse.
Getting Lehkonen back with a month or more before the deadline could prove instructive for what the front office wants, or needs, to do before March 8. Girard’s mental health and general well-being are the top priority, but how he plays could also impact the team’s deadline plans.
2. A positive update for the captain
Gabriel Landeskog has moved his family back to the area. He’s around the team on a more regular basis. It’s hard to envision the Avs counting on a postseason return, regardless of how the next few months progress. But some sort of positive medical update, plus a return to skating and a hint of better days ahead, even if they are next season, would be a big deal.
3. A few more highs, a few less lows in net
Alexandar Georgiev led the NHL in wins after a victory Friday night in St. Louis, and he was tied for the lead in games. The team has been inconsistent in front of him at times, but the Avs are going to need him to find a more consistent level of form by April.
Georgiev was ninth in goals saved above expected last year, according to Money Puck. He’s 22nd so far this season.
Playing a little less might help, and he’s likely to. Georgiev is currently on pace to play 66 games. That should change, if only because the Avs have only had three back-to-backs so far and because backup Ivan Prosvetov has probably earned more trust from his new coaching staff.
4. Smoother waters ahead
Bednar was as angry as he’s ever been in a postgame media conference after the 8-2 loss to St. Louis. Mikko Rantanen blasted one of his best friend’s dad. Devon Toews lit into some of his teammates.
While it’s added some spice to what can become a long season, the players and coaches would be happy to spend the next couple of months not ending up on the front page of hockey websites for quirky, unexpected reasons.
5. One more middle-six forward
The Avalanche traded away a guy who was expected to be part of the top-nine forward group. Another one (Lehkonen) has been missing for weeks. Depth up front looks like one potential weakness that could derail a Stanley Cup run.
They need to replace Tomas Tatar, just from a “depth guys you can trust in a playoff series” perspective. The bigger question is do the Avs need another center, specifically because neither Ryan Johansen nor Ross Colton has produced at the level of a traditional No. 2 guy?
Lehkonen’s return could help answer that by giving the club better options to play with Johansen. A line of Johansen between Lehkonen and Valeri Nichushkin has looked great in limited time together. Johansen is on pace for 25 goals, though other aspects of his game need to improve.
Is the best solution to add a player performing at the level Nazem Kadri did two years ago? Sure.
Can the Avs pull that off, given the tight salary cap situation and relative lack of desirable assets compared to some other contenders who might want the same player? That is far, far less certain.
The trade market is going to come into focus in the coming weeks, but it’s pretty clear that Colorado could use another forward who is more productive that Tatar was. A center would be ideal, in part because it would give Bednar more options to tinker with his lineup. It’s not just that the Avs could use more production from the second and third lines — one center being unavailable exposes the lack of NHL-ready depth at the position beyond the four guys who play there most nights.
That could mean pushing Colton or Fredrik Olofsson to the wing when everyone is healthy. If it’s a big name, the Avs might need to include Johansen in the deal to make the financials work. Colton between Miles Wood and Logan O’Connor has been a valuable line, but moving one of those three to the fourth line would make this a deeper, more dangerous lineup.
6. One more defenseman?
When the season began, Colorado boasted arguably the best defense corps in the league … one through six. Beyond that was a big question mark.
How do the Avalanche decision-makers feel about the depth now? Better, assuming Girard settles back in and plays to the level he has previously. Sam Malinski and Caleb Jones have proven to be capable fill-in options in the No. 7/8 roles.
Teams are always looking for an extra veteran defenseman before the deadline, though. Those two (Malinski in particular) might have more long-term upside in their careers than the type of cheap veteran that teams usually add, but would Bednar rather have a more experienced guy to insert in the lineup for a Game 6 on the road when one of his first six isn’t available? The answer with most NHL coaches is probably.
There isn’t a lot of wiggle room with the salary cap, and what there is seems more likely to be needed for a forward upgrade. That said, getting one more defenseman at or around the league minimum could also be on the to-do list for general manager Chris MacFarland and Co.
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