BOM map shows southwest of WA could experience higher than usual temperatures this spring

The consensus has been reached, Perth and the south-west of WA are getting hotter and drier on average.

A new map released by the Bureau of Meteorology on Thursday shows Perth and most of WA blanketed by a scarlet-coloured stain.

The map’s key reveals that there’s an 80 per cent chance that most of the State will experience temperatures higher than usual (four times more likely).

To put this in context the highest temperature record for:

• October: 32.2C in 2013 on the 30th
• November: 40.4C in 2019 on the 16th
• December: 44.2C in 2007 on the 26th
• Perth’s hottest day ever: 46.2 in February 2019.

BOM WA meteorologist Catherine Schelfhout said the map was concerning.

She said that the southwest of WA was getting hotter and drier on average.

The southwest of WA has also seen 10 to 20 per cent less rainfall in recent decades.

“It’s more likely to be hotter but there are no guarantees,” she said.

“There was a very dry outlook for winter but we had a wet June.

“The climate in the southwest of WA has warmed by 1.47 degrees from 1910 to 2021.

“(West Australians) should be aware of potential impacts like bushfires and prepare for bushfires.”

Ms Schelfhout said she wasn’t able to provide a weather prediction for Christmas Day

BOM uses the positive Indian Ocean Dipole, Southern Annular Mode and global record warm oceans to make climate predictions.

When the IOD is positive, the Indian Ocean has warmer than normal water in the west.

This changes the path of weather systems coming from Australia’s west, often resulting in less rainfall and higher than normal temperatures over parts of Australia during winter and spring.