The final gift “handed out” on Christmas could be the NFL MVP award.
When the Ravens and 49ers meet Monday night, it won’t just be a potential Super Bowl LVIII preview. It will be a chance for the two quarterbacks atop the MVP race to stake an unshakable claim by outplaying the other head-to-head in a late-season matchup.
Unlike in years when Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady or Peyton Manning was a runaway favorite for the award by this point in the season, the MVP odds seem to change week by week in 2023.
Hey, maybe even a non-quarterback could win it for the first time in 10 years?
(Narrator: That won’t happen. Unfair.)
Let’s size up the races for MVP and Coach of the Year entering Week 16:
The favorite: QB Brock Purdy, 49ers
It’s a remarkable story that a Mr. Irrelevant could win the MVP in just his second season after being the last pick in the draft. From Most Irrelevant Player to Most Valuable Player. MIP to MVP.
Purdy leads the NFL in touchdown passes (29) and quarterbacks the current No. 1 seed in the NFC playoff picture. Four of the past five MVP winners led the NFL in touchdown passes. The past six winners quarterbacked the No. 1 seed in the AFC or NFC playoffs.
The challenger: QB Lamar Jackson, Ravens
Jackson is the only serious candidate who could be a repeat winner. He claimed his first MVP in 2019. Jackson ranks No. 8 in quarterback rating, No. 18 in rushing yards (easily No. 1 among quarterbacks with 741) and quarterbacks the current No. 1 in the AFC playoff picture.
These aren’t the defense-dominant Ravens of the past. They rank fourth in points per game (27.4), and Jackson makes it all go.
On the verge: QB Dak Prescott, Cowboys
Prescott’s candidacy took a major hit this week after his stinker at the Bills, but he ranks in the top five in touchdowns (28), passing yards (3,639) and completion percentage (68.8). If the Cowboys win their final three games behind Prescott — who had a stretch of 22 touchdowns and two interceptions earlier this season — and the Eagles slip up once, stealing the NFC East title could sway the vote.
The touchdown-maker: RB Christian McCaffrey, 49ers
Purdy said he would vote for his teammate McCaffrey, who leads the league in rushing (1,292 yards), yards from scrimmage (1,801) and total touchdowns (20). McCaffrey had a record-tying streak of 17 straight games with a touchdown. But if he didn’t win the award during his remarkable 1,000/1,000 rushing/receiving yards season in 2019, it’s hard to see him getting it now.
The game-changer: WR Tyreek Hill, Dolphins
Defensive coaches will tell you Hill is the toughest weapon to prepare for the NFL because there is no way to replicate his speed in practice. That’s why he is so good in the first quarter. He needs to become the first 2,000-yard receiver in history to have even a slight shot — and that means 458 over the last three games after missing the last week due to injury.
The sleeper: QB Josh Allen, Bills
What if the Bills close the season on a season-saving five-game winning streak and enter the playoffs as the NFL’s hottest team? Would Allen — one of the preseason favorites — be able to steal the award? He just set a single-season record with his 10th game with at least one passing and one rushing touchdown, upping his combined season total to 37.
Coach of the Year
The favorite: Dan Campbell, Lions
The last Lions coach to win was Wayne Fontes in 1991. In many ways, this is the Lions’ best season since then — or going back even longer.
Their 8-2 start was a first since 1962, and they are 4-0 after losses. The preseason issue of five players suspended for violating the NFL’s gambling policy did not create a distraction.
The challenger: DeMeco Ryans, Texans
Voters tend to favor first-year head coaches. Four of the last six winners fit the bill.
Why? Because first-year head coaches tend to inherit messes and quick fixes look good.
That certainly applies to Ryans, who brought the Texans back from on-field and off-field disgraces.
On the verge: Shane Steichen, Colts
A similar case to Ryans. Will either of their teams upset the Jaguars for the AFC South crown? That could be a factor.
The feather in Steichen’s cap is he coached most of the season without injured starting quarterback Anthony Richardson and injured top playmaker Jonathan Taylor. He is getting the most out of an underwhelming roster.
Repeat winner: Kevin Stefanski, Browns
On the pure basis of which coach has done the best job this season, it’s difficult to argue against Stefanski, beginning with his decision to go outside his comfort zone and hire coordinator Jim Schwartz to oversee the NFL’s stingiest defense.
But Stefanski’s case also is built around winning games with four different quarterbacks, losing running back Nick Chubb and surviving the NFL’s toughest division instead of using injuries as an excuse. He won in 2020, so should the wealth be spread around? Well, Ron Rivera won in 2013 and 2015.
The overlooked: Kyle Shanahan, 49ers
It’s easy to discount the head coach of the most-talented team because the assumption is that anyone can win with those guys. Wrong.
The 49ers have the biggest averaging scoring margin (+13.6) because they have blown out even the good teams on their schedule. Shanahan also deserves credit for making the right hires when replacing coordinators hired away to be head coaches nearly every offseason.
Mr. Popular: Mike McDaniel, Dolphins
Nobody does it quite like McDaniel.
In a profession that lends itself to cookie cutters, he looks smaller. He sounds more transparent. He has more fun.
McDaniel also is an innovator for the NFL’s top-ranked total offense and scoring offense. The Dolphins could reach 12 wins for the first time since 1990.
5 bold predictions
Most of my annual New Year’s resolutions fail within a couple weeks.
Let’s see if my January success rate is any better when it comes to NFL bold predictions.
1. The Chiefs don’t win a playoff game.
There is a lot of talk about how Patrick Mahomes has never played a road playoff game. But what if the Chiefs don’t even advance that far?
Even with the first-round bye likely to go to the Ravens or Dolphins, the Chiefs will be at home for the Wild Card assuming they win the AFC West. Possible dangerous opponents include the Texans, Bengals, Jaguars and — scariest of all — Bills.
General manager Brett Veach has done a great job patching holes over the years, but he struck out building this receiving corps. Their fatal flaw — dropped passes — only will be magnified in the playoffs, when defenses swarm to Travis Kelce and the Chiefs find they no longer can count on outscoring an explosive opponent.
2. The Cowboys reach the NFC Championship Game for the first time since 1995.
In addition to the 28-year span of Cowboys overhype leading to letdowns, what also makes this bold is that the Cowboys — who are 7-0 at home and 3-4 on the road — likely will have to win two games away from home to be on the doorstep of a Super Bowl.
The suddenly struggling Eagles remain in the driver’s seat to win the NFC East, so that would bump the Cowboys to the No. 5 seed. Winning an away game against the NFC South champion isn’t a tall order, but the next game will be.
The prediction here is the Lions or Eagles lose in the first round, meaning the surprise lower-seeded winner visits San Francisco and the Cowboys pull an upset in either Detroit or Philadelphia.
3. A playoff game is ruined by a quarterback injury.
It just feels apropos at this point for some highly anticipated quarterback duel to be ruined when one of the two leaves the field on a cart in the first quarter.
With the Bengals’ Joe Burrow, the Vikings’ Kirk Cousins, the Browns’ Deshaun Watson, the Giants’ Daniel Jones, the Colts’ Anthony Richardson and the Chargers’ Justin Herbert out for the season, and other starters missing key games down the stretch, backup quarterbacks never have been more valuable.
The playoffs already will feature a few teams led by backups from the start, but how many others can do what the now-retired Chad Henne did when he unexpectedly came off the Chiefs bench for an injured Mahomes and played a big part in wins during the 2020 and 2022 playoffs? Answer: Not many.
4. Bill Belichick is the next head coach and general manager of … the Bears.
The odds-on favorites to land Belichick after his seemingly inevitable departure from the Patriots are the Chargers (stacked roster) and the Commanders (need credibility).
But Chargers owner Dean Spanos is notoriously reluctant to spend on coaches, and the Commanders offer a barren roster and a potentially impatient new owner in Josh Harris.
The Bears could hold the No. 1 pick in the 2024 draft plus another top-10 pick and whatever picks come in return for trading Justin Fields, so Belichick can land the quarterback he now knows he needs to win and quickly put complementary pieces around him. As one of the biggest NFL historians in coaching, the Bears’ tradition of great defenses, 102 years of stable family ownership and holding the same job that George Halas once defined all should appeal to Belichick.
“I have a ton of respect for Coach Halas and what he did for professional football,” Belichick said after passing him on the all-time wins list in 2022.
Moving on from second-year head coach Matt Eberflus (8-23) won’t be as difficult as moving on from — or essentially demoting — second-year general manager Ryan Pace.
5. Zay Flowers and Brandon Aiyuk are the breakout stars of the playoffs.
Not exactly the first two receivers you think of when looking at teams in the NFL playoffs.
Go ahead and list the 49ers’ offensive game-breakers: Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle … and then Aiyuk.
The fourth weapon on this loaded team could be a No. 1 option for other teams. He is going to use the playoffs to show just that and boost his trade value going into the offseason: He is controlled under the fifth-year option at $14.1 million, is but seeking a long-term extension.
Flowers, a rookie, is exactly what Jackson-led Ravens teams that have flopped in the playoffs were missing.
The Ravens still have the No. 1-ranked rushing attack in the NFL, but Flowers’ speed (10 catches of 20-plus yards, including three for at least 40) is a new balancing element to the offense, especially with Odell Beckham Jr. still commanding respect as another receiver if defenses overcommit to stopping the run.
The company of Johnson & Johnson
A course correction is coming.
Because just five NFL head coach vacancies — fewest in a decade — opened in 2023, the number of franchises making a change could be on the high end once the calendar turns. The Panthers, Chargers and Raiders already are in the market, and it’s not difficult to think of up to seven more possibilities if the carousel breaks a certain way.
So, which assistant coaches are about to find themselves in high demand on the interview circuit?
Here are eight candidates you will hear a lot about in January:
Brian Johnson, Eagles offensive coordinator: A hand in developing Jalen Hurts from a second-round pick to an MVP candidate is a big boon for Johnson, a former college quarterback who is in his first year calling plays after two as quarterbacks coach. The Eagles rank No. 6 in expected points added per play, per Pro Football Focus. Serving as the Eagles offensive coordinator historically is a stepping stone for NFL head coaches.
Ben Johnson, Lions offensive coordinator: The Lions rank No. 2 in rushing offense, No. 4 in passing offense and No. 5 in scoring offense. Jared Goff’s career has undergone a renaissance since Johnson was promoted to offensive coordinator midway through the 2021 season. Rookies Sam LaPorta and Jahmyr Gibbs have seamlessly transitioned to the NFL under Johnson.
Brian Flores, Vikings defensive coordinator: Yes, the former Dolphins head coach is suing the league and several teams over allegedly racist hiring practices. But if there is an owner looking for a disciplinarian head coach with experience (24-25 record), Flores should be top of mind. He is calling the league’s most aggressive defense after spending last season as the Steelers’ linebackers coach.
Lou Anarumo, Bengals defensive coordinator: The Staten Island native has been on the interview circuit for a few years, including narrowly missing out on taking over the Cardinals this past offseason. His defenses get better as the games go along, and he is known for making adjustments based on player feedback, which is a good sign for the type of open-door communication needed from a CEO.
Jerod Mayo, Patriots linebackers coach: Widely regarded as the in-house favorite if the Patriots and Belichick part ways, Mayo is only in his fifth season of coaching after an eight-year playing career in New England. Boston Sports Journal reported he is “rubbing some people wrong” inside the building, however, and it’s unlikely he has enough experience to secure any of the other vacancies.
Bobby Slowik, Texans offensive coordinator: Is he the next hire off of the Mike Shanahan Coaching Tree that has produced son Kyle (49ers), Sean McVay (Rams), Matt LaFleur (Packers), McDaniel (Dolphins) on the offensive side and Ryans (Texans) and Robert Saleh (Jets) on the defensive side? Slowik, a Princeton native, is the son of a pro football coach. His work with Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite C.J. Stroud is remarkable.
Bubba Ventrone, Browns assistant head coach/special teams coordinator: There is appeal in hiring a special teams coordinator because he is involved in both offensive and defensive strategy and accustomed to juggling a full roster. Ventrone was a 10-year NFL player and was exposed to the Patriots Way, but has broadened his horizons (the Brian Daboll method). He is the right-hand man to Kevin Stefanski — arguably the NFL Coach of the Year.
Brian Callahan, Bengals offensive coordinator: The NFL’s second-longest-tenured offensive coordinator (2019), Callahan has been a victim of head coach Zac Taylor calling plays and Burrow’s greatness. But he might finally get some overdue credit based on seldom-seen backup Jake Browning’s stellar performance in place of injured Burrow. He comes with a Peyton Manning stamp of approval from his Broncos days, too.
Forget me not
In a perfect world, every five-star high school football recruit becomes a college All-American and a top NFL Draft pick.
That’s not how it happens.
College football held its National Signing Day on Wednesday, which made us wonder what typically becomes of 247Sports’ top-ranked player and top-ranked quarterback in each class. Should NFL fans remember the names of receiver Jeremiah Smith (signed to Ohio State) and quarterback Dylan Raiola (signed to Nebraska)?
Because no members of the 2021 class have played in the NFL yet, here is a look at the NFL resumes of top recruits from 2010-20:
2020
Top player: QB Bryce Young (No. 1 overall pick in 2023, 13 career games and counting)
Top QB: Young
2019
Top player: OLB Antonio Alfano (did not appear in any college games and was last on a team in 2020)
Top QB: Spencer Rattler (entering 2024 NFL Draft)
2018
Top player: QB Trevor Lawrence (No. 1 overall pick in 2021, 48 career games and counting, one Pro Bowl selection)
Top QB: Lawrence
2017
Top player: OT Walker Little (second-round pick in 2021, 37 career games and counting)
Top QB: Davis Mills (third-round pick in 2021, 32 career games and counting)
2016
Top player: OLB Rashan Gary (No. 12 overall pick in 2019, 70 career games and counting)
Top QB: Shea Patterson (undrafted, zero games)
2015
Top player: DT Trenton Thompson (undrafted, zero games)
Top QB: Jarrett Stidham (fourth-round pick in 2019, 14 career games and counting)
2014
Top player: DE Myles Garrett (No. 1 overall pick in 2017 draft, 98 career games, four Pro Bowl selections)
Top QB: Kyle Allen (undrafted in 2018, 26 career games and counting)
2013
Top player: DE Robert Nkemdiche (No. 29 overall pick in 2016, 38 career games)
Top QB: Christian Hackenberg (second-round pick in 2016, zero career games)
2012
Top player: DT Mario Edwards (second-round pick in 2015, 113 career games and counting)
Top QB: Gunner Kiel (undrafted in 2017, zero career games)
2011
Top player: EDGE Jadeveon Clowney (No. 1 overall pick in 2014, 123 career games and counting, three Pro Bowl selections)
Top QB: Jeff Driskell (sixth-round pick in 2016, 23 career games and counting)
2010
Top player: DE Ronald Powell (fifth-round pick in 2014, 14 career games)
Top QB: Philip Sims (undrafted in 2015, zero career games)