Broncos Draft win-win? Trading down, landing good quarterback rare

Sean Payton doesn’t care about your in-theory NFL Draft strategies.

His approach has always been to target specific players and do what it takes to get them. He said this winter he’s “unconcerned” with what others deem good or poor value if the Broncos get the guy they want. Especially at the most important position in the game.

Here’s a popular idea: Trade down from No. 12, gain draft capital and still draft a quarterback early… just not that early. Most likely either Oregon’s Bo Nix or Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. Collect extra picks and $200 for passing “Go” while you’re at it.

Easy as that.

Payton poured cold water on that notion last month at the NFL’s spring ownership meetings.

“I think you tune out the stuff you read,” Payton said. “Just go back, we just saw the second run on the (2021) draft class that everyone loved all these prospects. Now they’re all with different teams. So you look closely. A lot of times, you’ll hear someone say, ‘Hey, they can always move back and pick up one of these other players.’ The reality of it is that one or maybe two of these guys will have a chance of success.

“Then you get those leap years where three or four do.”

This time of year it’s always worth wondering if a coach is actually dousing a fire or just kicking up a smokescreen.

Payton, though, has a point on this front. Trades are common in the draft. But trading down in the first round and hitting on a quarterback with a premium pick? That’s entirely uncommon.

The Post found two instances since the institution of the rookie wage scale in 2011 of a team trading down in the first round and then using that capital to take a quarterback. It happened slightly more often between 2000 and 2010, but without much more success.

Here’s a look at those five deals. The best quarterback drafted among them: Joe Flacco by Baltimore in 2008.

Minnesota 2021

The year Payton referenced as a warning to those who think 2024 is just going to spit out starting quarterback after starting quarterback.

Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson and Trey Lance went in the first three picks. San Francisco provided a potential model for the Broncos in terms of moving up from No. 12. The 49ers got to No. 3 by dealing three first-round picks and a third-rounder.

What if the Vikings showed another potential path for Denver? Minnesota dealt Nos. 14 and 143 to the Jets for Nos. 23, 66 and 86.

The Jets had already taken a quarterback in Wilson at No. 2 and wanted to get back up to take offensive lineman Alijah Vera-Tucker.

Minnesota had Kirk Cousins and could have drafted Mac Jones (he went No. 15), but instead traded back. It nailed No. 23 by drafting left tackle Christian Darrisaw, then selected quarterback Kellen Mond at No. 66 in the middle of a second-tier QB run that also included Kyle Trask (64) and Davis Mills (No. 67).

This isn’t an apples-to-apples comparison for the Broncos. The second wave of QBs is likely to start before the 60s this year and Denver is more in need of a quarterback now than Minnesota was then.

The Broncos would be more likely to take a quarterback like Penix or Nix in the 20s or potentially South Carolina’s Spencer Rattler on Day 2.

The closest match of a trade at present: Denver sends Nos. 12 and 203 to Dallas for Nos. 24, 56 and 87.

Buffalo 2013

The Bills traded Nos. 8 and 71 to St. Louis for Nos. 16, 46, 78 and 222. They then used the No. 16 pick to select … quarterback E.J. Manuel.

That didn’t work so well, though linebacker Kiko Alonso and receiver Marquise Goodwin turned into good players from the next two picks, respectively.

This is a cleaner fit to the Broncos’ situation in that Buffalo simply moved down in the first round and took a quarterback later in the same round, but it’s much different for one key reason: Manuel was still the first quarterback off the board. Next came Geno Smith at No. 39.

This year’s group of quarterbacks will come off the board much faster.

Manuel started 10 games as a rookie, just eight in four seasons after that and went 6-12 with career marks of 58.1% completion, 20 touchdowns, 16 interceptions, 11 fumbles and 47 sacks.

At least the Bills took him at No. 16 instead of No. 8.

The Bills finally figured out the Draft-a-QB mystery in 2018 when they moved up from No. 12 (huh) to No. 7 for Josh Allen, two picks after Denver took Bradley Chubb. Buffalo sent Nos. 12, 53 and 56 to Tampa Bay for Nos. 7 and 255 and hit a grand slam.

Baltimore 2008

The biggest success of this lackluster bunch.

Baltimore traded No. 8 to Jacksonville for Nos. 26, 71, 89 and 125. Then it dealt Nos. 26, 89 and 173 to Houston to get back up to No. 18 and take Joe Flacco.

Proof of concept that you can move down the order in the first round and then, if needed, get back up into position to take a guy you like. In 2008, Matt Ryan went No. 3 and then Flacco was the second guy off the board.