Forecasters did a “superb job” to give Queenslanders an “enormous amount of warning” about severe weather events this summer, according to the Bureau of Meteorology’s boss in a vehement defence of his staff.
During a Senate estimates grilling, bureau director Andrew Johnson delivered a stunning rebuke to “aspersions on the quality of the bureau’s forecast” by laying out the authority’s messaging in the lead-up to Tropical Cyclone Jasper in December and severe Christmas Day storms on the Gold Coast.
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He also rejected claims the bureau had declared the summer would be drier and warmer than average.
“I appreciate the opportunity to get on the record a few facts, because I think the performance of our folks was fantastic,” Johnson said in a night session of estimates on Tuesday.
Regarding Jasper that crossed the far north coast on December 13 before bringing widespread flooding to the region, Johnson said the bureau first warned of the possible impact eight days before the crossing, “which I think is extraordinary warning, advance warning”.
He said heavy rain and flooding warnings came six days in advance, while the first warning of “life-threatening flash flooding” was four days in advance.
“So I think that is an absolutely extraordinary effort from our people, in terms of providing the community with that level of advance warning,” Johnson said.
“The coastal crossing was very, very close to where we said it would be, at a strength we said it would be.
“We forecast daily rainfall totals of 4-500mm of rain — that’s what happened.
“We issued 26 cyclone warnings, 29 severe weather warnings, 14 flood watches, 121 flood warnings.”
He claimed BOM first warned of “the likelihood of severe thunderstorms” on Christmas Day three days prior, before parts of the Gold Coast hinterland were decimated by the storm.
“Damaging winds, large hail, intense rainfall, life-threatening flash flood — that’s exactly what happened,” Johnson said.
He was cut off due to time limits before detailing the bureau’s forecast relating to Tropical Cyclone Kirrily, which crossed near Townsville in January.
Accused by Queensland Senator Gerard Rennick of prompting farmers to sell cattle over predictions of a “very dry summer”, Johnson moved to “put on the record, if I can, what we did say”.
On August 24, the bureau provided a three-month seasonal forecast of “a high likelihood of dry and warm conditions”, according to the director.
“That’s exactly what happened. We had the driest spring in Australia on record. The warmest winter and spring in Australia on record,” Johnson said.
The next three-month forecast on October 19 “forecast a switch from dry to neutral conditions”, while another statement on November 23 outlined “a moistening trend”, he said.
“Our forecasts were excellent,” Johnson said.