Can Sean Payton lead an unlikely playoff run?

Denver Post Broncos writer Parker Gabriel posts his Broncos Mailbag periodically during the offseason. Click here to submit a question.

The TV often focuses on the coaches calling plays and displays it on the screen. The Denver coaches let their play-calling be shown and I think the opposing team can partially know what they are talking about. I think the Denver coaches should try harder to hide their lips from the TV when calling plays.

— Nathan Berger, Denver

Hey Nathan, thanks for writing in and getting us started this week. I hear you on that, but I think this type of thing gets a little bit overblown. The detail with which you’d have to lipread and then put into practice in real time makes it seem unlikely to be successful.

For this to work, someone must be watching the moment a sideline shot captures something revelatory being said, then decode that message and use against a team seconds later. Isn’t it more likely that an opposing player would be along the sideline and hear or see something helpful? Or that, Michigan style, someone in the opposing coaches’ box is watching signals through binoculars?

He might have been bluffing a bit, but Payton said a couple weeks ago he wasn’t worried about his entire two-minute menu and terminology ending up on television plainly legible in Week 6. Monday on social media I saw Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen talking about how the Bills come up with line of scrimmage calls like “JR Smith” and it correlates to a concept called “Cavalier” (Get it? JR Smith played for the Cleveland Cavaliers). I also saw Green Bay coach Matt LaFleur describe in detail how a young receiver got fooled by the Vikings disguising a particular coverage based on the leverage the nickel played with. All of which is to say that coaches tend to be among the most paranoid people on the planet and if they’re not covering their mouth on the sideline, it’s probably because they have a pretty good idea it’s not the difference between winning and losing.

Parker, finally we went all in on the run game. That combination of Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin is dynamite. What the heck took so long? I swear, we’ve been harping on this for weeks.

— Mark, Arvada

How about that? More than anything, the confusion over the past few weeks stemmed from the fact that this is what Sean Payton and company talked about being the offense’s bedrock all along. Like, from the day he got hired. And through free agency. And the draft. And OTAs. And training camp. And the preseason. And then it just never really felt like the Broncos were all that committed to it until Sunday. Of course, there are some justifications for the lack of rushing attempts in the first several games.

I wrote about some of them last week, including the amount of time they’ve trailed compared to being ahead or tied this year. Even still, the Broncos did just enough in the passing game to help stay on schedule and allow for 40 rushing attempts against the Chiefs on Sunday. And yes, Williams and McLaughlin are a nice pairing. Don’t forget Samaje Perine, who’s the team’s third-leading receiver so far.

How about this stat: Russell Wilson ran the ball eight times and was sacked six against Kansas City. On Denver’s other combined 44 rush attempts and completions, running backs got the ball 39 times. Talk about leaning on a position group, right?

Hey Parker, love your coverage. After losing to the Dolphins, it felt like we could’ve easily fallen to 1-7 or 0-8 by the bye week. Now that we’re 3-5, how do you feel about this team in the second half? Do you think we can sneak into a playoff spot? If we stay healthy, there are definitely some winnable games ahead.

— Ryan D., Denver

Ryan, appreciate the kind words. It’s funny what a couple of wins can do for a team, right? Suddenly you go from looking down the schedule and saying “Oh yeah, they’re going 3-14” to saying, well, you can squint and see 10 wins.

The reality, of course, is not that simple. As you indicated in the question, Denver is pretty healthy right now outside of the group that got hurt in camp/right at the start of the season and the recurring hamstring issues for Greg Dulcich. If they hit another rough patch on that front, that can change the complexion of a game or two. Then there’s this stat that I looked up this morning for no particular reason: In two years so far of the expanded playoff field, 10 non-division winners have gone 9-8. Three of them have made the playoffs as Wild Card teams and seven have not. So really, to ensure a playoff bid, 10 wins is the benchmark.

Can they go 7-2 to basically ensure the make it or 6-3 to at least be in the picture? It’s not impossible. But as we learn anew every week in the NFL, there’s no such thing as a gimme game. Beat Buffalo and lose to Cleveland or beat Detroit and lose to Las Vegas, and the math gets tight quickly. It’s not just about an upset or two. It’s about playing really consistent football for two months. We haven’t seen that kind of consistency from this team this year or from the franchise in quite some time. But that doesn’t make it impossible.

This defense has made a complete 180-degree turn since the Miami game. What happened? We look like we did last year. Is Vance Joseph not as bad as we thought?

— Marvin, Salt Lake City

Yeah, Marvin, I’d quibble with the timeline a little bit. They allowed Justin Fields to start 23 of 24 for 285 yards in Week 4, so the turnaround didn’t really start right after Miami. Even in Week 5 the Jets ran for 234 yards, though the defense only gave up 22 of New York’s 31 points.

The larger point stands, though. The defense has played much better recently than it did early in the season. Here’s the interesting part about it: Sometimes fans (and reporters can fall into this, too) assume that players and coaches just always try to say the right thing regardless of what the truth is. But Broncos defensive players were adamant all along that Joseph wasn’t the problem. He had a good scheme and called good stuff and they didn’t execute. It didn’t seem like lip service at the time and it certainly doesn’t now. A couple of things Justin Simmons said last night stood out to me.

First, “I think VJ did such a good job today with the play calling and mixing it up. When we execute what he calls, this is kind of the result.”

Second, “I think it’s just, how do we fine-tune the details? Because that was what we were missing. I’m not just coming up here and, what I like to call it, ‘media talk’ — I’m not just coming up here and saying (it’s about) communication each and every week so it sounds good. That is really the No. 1 thing you work on.”