Canada’s Justin Trudeau to stay in office after special election ‘disaster’

“I hear people’s concerns and frustrations. These are not easy times and it is clear I and my entire Liberal team have much more hard work to do,” Trudeau told reporters in Vancouver.

“My focus is on your success and that’s where it’s going to stay,” he added.

Don Stewart (centre), Conservative candidate for Toronto-St Paul’s, greets supporters in Toronto on Monday. Photo: Bloomberg

The next federal election must be held by end-October 2025 and a range of polls show the Liberals, who have been in power since November 2015, would lose badly to the Conservatives.

The loss indicates Liberals in less safe Toronto area seats might be vulnerable, underlining the party’s challenge.

“What a disaster for the Liberals,” said Philippe Fournier, editor in chief of the 338Canada website, which models electoral projections across the country.

The Conservatives have announced four main goals: axing a carbon tax introduced by the Liberals, addressing the government’s budget deficit, tackling a housing crisis and combating crime.

In a social media post, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre said: “Trudeau can’t go on like this. He must call a carbon tax election now.”

Some political analysts have mused that the Liberals might do better if they changed leader.

Scott Reid, a media commentator who served as chief spokesman to former Liberal Prime Minister Paul Martin, said the party had to respond to the clear desire for change.

“The prime minister is surely going to have to reconsider his own future,” he said by email.

Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau speaks as Conservative Party of Canada leader Pierre Poilievre listens during Question Period in the House of Commons in Ottawa in September 2023. Photo: Reuters

Names of potential candidates include former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney and Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc.

But in Canada, party leaders are chosen by special conventions which are held on fixed dates. It is therefore almost impossible to ditch a prime minister who wants to stay.

The Liberals took 40.5 per cent of the vote in Toronto-St Paul’s compared to 42.1 per cent for the Conservatives. In the 2021 election, the Liberals won by 49 per cent to 22 per cent.

David Coletto of the Abacus Data polling firm said if the swing to the Conservatives were replicated across Ontario, the most populous province, the Liberals could be reduced to just a handful of seats.

But one Liberal Toronto legislator who helped campaign said the constituency contained many Jewish voters, some of whom felt Trudeau was not supportive enough of Israel.

“I don’t think you can discount the dissatisfaction with the prime minister. But in this particular instance, there was a referendum on [our] position on Israel,” said the legislator, who requested anonymity given the sensitivity of the situation.

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