The global wind sector will be propelled by factors like acceleration in energy transition and the urgency to boost energy security, leading to a tripling in the rate of annual additions of offshore wind installations by 2028, with China accounting for over half the additions, according to industry body Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC).
“Offshore wind addresses the pressing issues of energy resource diversification and enhanced energy security by offering higher capacity factor and large power output,” GWEC said in a report released on Monday.
The world added 10.8 gigawatts (GW) of new offshore wind capacity last year, bringing the total global offshore wind capacity to 75.2GW, a 24 per cent year-on-year increase marking the second-best year in offshore wind history, according to the report.
Driven by the global goal of tripling renewable energy by 2030 agreed during the United Nations COP28 climate summit in Dubai last year, a favourable political environment and the urgency of ensuring energy security after the Russia-Ukraine conflict, GWEC expects annual offshore wind installations worldwide to triple to 32.8GW by 2028, and reach 66GW by 2033.
China is expected to contribute 52 per cent of the global offshore wind additions in 2024-2028, adding 72GW of new capacity during the period, according to GWEC.
“Considering the strong growth expected in China, as well as burgeoning new Asian markets, Asia’s leading position in offshore wind installations is unlikely to be challenged in the next decade,” said Zhao Feng, chief research officer at GWEC in the report.
China led the world in annual offshore wind development for the sixth year in a row with 6.3GW added in 2023, followed by Europe with 3.8GW, according to GWEC.
Asia replaced Europe as the world’s largest regional offshore wind market in 2022. At the of 2023, more than 40GW of offshore wind capacity was in operation in Asia, of which 92 per cent was in China, with the rest from Taiwan, Vietnam, Japan, and South Korea, according to GWEC. Europe had a total offshore wind installation of 34GW by the end of 2023, making up 45 per cent of the global offshore total, GWEC data showed.
Over the next decade, GWEC forecasts that 410GW of new offshore wind capacity will be installed worldwide. That would keep the industry on track to meet its 2030 target of installing 380GW that is required to keep global warming to below 1.5 degrees Celsius. Most of the addition will emerge at the turn of the decade, with two-thirds of the new installation materialising between 2029 and 2033, according to GWEC.
About 52 per cent of the predicted global offshore wind additions in 2024 to 2033 will come from Asia, according to GWEC.
While China will continue to be the dominant market in Asia until 2027, with market share ranging between 80 per cent and 90 per cent, GWEC predicted that China’s market share in the region will drop to 69 per cent in 2030 and 66 per cent in 2033, as new offshore wind projects will start coming online in Japan, South Korea, and in emerging markets such as the Philippines, India, and Australia.
“To date, offshore wind has achieved remarkable success establishing itself as a maturing, competitive, globally diverse, and scalable industry,” said Rebecca Williams, chief strategy officer of offshore wind at GWEC in the report.
“The growth of offshore wind is now so much more than a European, Chinese, or American story. This global industry must now “chart a course” for the tremendous growth that lies ahead,” she said.