There’s a fascinating top-25 matchup on Tuesday night in Provo, Utah, as the Baylor Bears travel to battle the BYU Cougars.
These two are offense-first squads predicated on elite spacing and shot-making, so it makes sense that both rank top-10 nationally in offensive efficiency.
Both are also limited defensively, leading to high-scoring affairs.
After a meteoric start to the year, BYU’s collapsed in Big 12 play, now sitting at 6-6 following a road loss to lowly Oklahoma State.
But I’m betting on a bounce-back, revenge game for the Cougars after losing the prior matchup down in Waco, and I think it’s time for the Bears to lose a game after winning five of the past six.
Baylor vs. BYU odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
| Baylor | +3 (-108) | N/A | o155 (-105) |
| BYU | -3 (-112) | N/A | u155 (-115) |
(Via DraftKings)
Baylor vs. BYU pick
(9 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Yes, Baylor beat BYU by nine in early January.
But that score is a tad misleading.
It was Baylor’s first home game in its brand-new arena and BYU’s first true road game aside from a short bus trip at Utah.
The situational spot was very tough for the Cougars.
Moreover, it took a 10-for-23 (44%) 3-point shooting night from the Bears to earn that result. The Bears shot better outside the arc than inside (15-for-35, 43%) against BYU.
I don’t expect that to happen again.
It makes sense that Baylor struggled to generate offense inside the arc.
The Bears are a guard-first offense, leveraging the dangerous backcourt of RayJ Dennis and Jakobe Walter in ball-screen sets.
But BYU is among the nation’s best ball-screen defenses.
The Cougars rank in the top-50 nationally in pick-and-roll PPP allowed (.69), and they held Baylor to only 22 paint points in the first head-to-head meeting.
If the Bears can’t generate dribble-drive ball-screen interior offense, they fall back on 3-point shooting and have to shoot the lights out to win.
They did that against BYU earlier this year, but I’m betting that’s not repeatable.
If the Cougars hold their own on the defensive end again, the Bears shouldn’t hit as many 3s away from Waco – Baylor’s shooting 44% from 3 at home but only 32% on the road.
Also, the Bears are due for more general negative shooting regression.
They’ve shot 57-for-140 (41%) from deep during their recent six-game hot streak, and I’m banking on them missing a few more over the next few games.
That’s especially true if sixth-man Langston Love is still injured. Love has missed the past three games due to a leg injury, and he’s currently listed as questionable for Tuesday’s battle.
Love is the team’s deadliest sharpshooter, canning 49% of his triples on the year while generating over 1.2 PPP in spot-up situations (93rd percentile).
He scored 15 points on 3-for-4 shooting from deep in the first head-to-head matchup with BYU, so his absence would be brutal.
On the other end of the court, the Cougars should be able to exploit Baylor in a few areas.
BYU runs mainly five-out zoom action sets to generate open 3-point shots.
The Cougars rank first in the Big 12 in 3-point rate, taking over 32 per game and making around 12 (36%), mainly through off-ball screen actions.
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Meanwhile, the Bears struggle to defend secondary actions, ranking 274th nationally in off-ball screen PPP allowed (.98).
Baylor’s defensive struggles start in the backcourt, as the guards are defensive turnstiles.
Walter has held his own, but Dennis and Jayden Nunn haven’t been able to stay in front of anybody.
I can’t imagine the Bears’ lackluster defensive guards keeping up with BYU on the perimeter.
The Bears rank ninth in the Big 12 in 3-point rate allowed and sixth in Open 3 Rate allowed, which is likely why the Cougars shot 9 for 24 (38%) from 3 in the first head-to-head meeting.
In the past, Scott Drew rode a no-middle defensive scheme to a National Championship.
The coverage forces ball-handlers to the sidelines and baselines, keeping them out of the middle of the floor while aggressively denying the paint and rim.
But because Baylor’s guards can’t execute the no-middle at the point of attack, the middle of the floor has opened up on the perimeter, and that’s trickled down to the rim.
The Bears allow over 30 paint points per game and rank 11th in the Big 12 in 2-point shooting allowed during conference play (54%).
While the Cougars dislike attacking the rim, they’re efficient on the interior because their spacing is so elite.
The opposing defense gets dragged out so far toward the perimeter, so interior lanes eventually open up. As a result, BYU leads the Big 12 in 2-point shooting (57%), albeit on limited attempts.
Given the Bears aren’t defending the middle, BYU should be able to generate clean interior looks after generating clean perimeter looks, hence why the Cougars shot 17 for 29 (59%) from inside the arc in the first meeting while managing 34 paint points.
Again, the Bears won that first meeting only because they shot the lights out from deep at home.
Up in Provo, they should still struggle to create ball-screen offense while failing to defend BYU’s outside-inside offense, but more 3s should brick this time around, especially without Love.
If the Bears shoot 45% from 3 again, I’ll have to tip my cap and move on. But I’m ready to bet against that.
The ShotQualityBets model projects BYU as a six-point home favorite over Baylor, so I’m happy playing the Cougars at -4 or better.
Baylor vs. BYU prediction
BYU -3 (-112) at BetRivers | Play to -4 (-110)