Long hours and sleepless nights for negotiators in Dubai have yet to yield a final deal at COP28, instead highlighting deep divisions between countries over a potential phase-out of fossil fuels as the UN climate summit extends beyond the scheduled close on Tuesday morning.
A preliminary agreement released on Monday tried to reach a compromise on the varied interests of nearly 200 countries on a plan to address global warming, but fell short of the historic deal leaders of the climate conference have aspired to achieve.
The question of how and when the world should wean itself off of oil, coal and gas has dominated the summit in U.A.E. The majority of countries want strong language calling for the phase-out of fossil fuels by 2050, while that type of commitment is opposed by Saudi Arabia and some other large oil-producing countries.
“This is the point of the negotiations when the rubber absolutely hits the road,” said Alok Sharma, a British politician and a former COP president.
“All of these countries need to understand what is at stake and they need to remind themselves because climate change does not recognize borders.”
COP28 president Sultan Al Jaber, who is also chief executive of the country’s national oil company, ADNOC, is now attempting to bridge the divide.
Some countries shouldn’t show up to negotiations if they aren’t willing to compromise, said Canadian Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault.
“We should be willing to engage on constructive discussions, which many of us have done, and I would invite all parties to do that,” he said.
The first draft agreement proposed a “just” and “orderly” reduction of fossil fuel use as options for countries, which critics described as too “watered down,” “grossly insufficient” and “incoherent and dangerous.”
“Unless we actually acknowledge that it is a phase-out of fossil fuels that will save our planet, what is the point of us being here?” said Joseph Sikulu, an environmental activist representing island nations in the Pacific, as he fought back tears on Tuesday.
UN climate summit deals need unanimous approval to pass, so there will likely be another revision before a possible agreement is reached.
If countries can agree on a new climate change agreement, it could send a signal to policymakers, investors and financial markets about the direction the world is moving on energy and the environment, said Catherine Abreu, founder and executive director of the advocacy group Destination Zero and a member of Canada’s Net-Zero Advisory Body.
“That signal is critical,” she said in an interview about a possible agreement in Dubai. “It doesn’t mean that the work is done, but it would be very significant.”
Global consumption of oil is at a record high and is expected to increase further during the next few years at least.
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Catherine McKenna, former environment minister and current chair of a UN expert group on net-zero emissions, says she’s ‘hopeful’ but not confident the final draft from the climate conference will call for the phase-out of fossil fuels.