Beware the scorched grass re-build.
As West Coast and North Melbourne prepare to play at Optus Stadium on Saturday, they’re doing so with both clubs in re-building mode.
The winless Roos are facing the prospect of a fifth consecutive season with four wins or less. West Coast are 16th with three wins, which is the same number they managed for the entirety of 2023, after a two-win season in 2022.
Re-building is tough. It’s hard on fans who expect wins when they’re paying money to attend games.
It’s tough on coaches who are selecting players that simply aren’t ready to compete for four quarters. It’s tough on talented teenagers who are drafted to a struggling team and then begin their AFL careers by constantly losing.
It’s been 20 years since Hawthorn created a dynasty at the 2004 draft. The Hawks turned picks two, five and seven into Jarryd Roughead, Lance Franklin and Jordan Lewis.
Then they picked up Xavier Ellis and Grant Birchall as first round picks the next season.
Hawthorn offloaded senior players, picked up talented kids and when they won the flag in 2008, hitting the draft with gusto became the copycat model.
The problem was, by that point, clubs realised they’d overpaid Hawthorn and didn’t offer the same deals again.
And it’s also clear that there’s a massive difference between getting access to a generational talent like Franklin compared to having picks when the draft isn’t as deep or talented.
Adelaide have been hitting the draft since the disastrous 2018 pre-season camp and haven’t played finals since. Now Matthew Nicks is under pressure.
St Kilda moved on more than half of their 2010 grand final team by the start of the 2014 season. Hitting the draft didn’t work.
Melbourne went to the draft and selected 14 top-20 picks across eight seasons without rising up the ladder. Coaches Dean Bailey and Mark Neeld got sacked along the way.
Richmond recruited Jack Riewoldt, Trent Cotchin, Alex Rance and Dustin Martin between 2006-09 but didn’t win a single final until 2017 when they went on to win the flag. Damien Hardwick did well to keep his job as fans went bananas.
The Dees, Tigers and Hawks all won premierships but there was immense pain along the way. They also eventually topped up their lists with experienced talent.
North Melbourne have followed the scorched earth blueprint. They famously retired off Brent Harvey, Drew Petrie, Michael Firrito and Nick Dal Santo at the end of 2016, and Daniel Wells moved to Collingwood. Nearly 1600 games of experience walked out the door and they fell from playing in an elimination final to winning only six games.
They returned to being competitive in 2018 and 2019 after targeting mid-range players at other clubs, before it all fell in a heap during the 2020 season and the club instantly slashed and burned.
It began a list turnover that brought in eight top-20 picks. Those youngsters have received plenty of opportunities to play at the highest level, but they don’t have the same chances to learn from hardened professionals with an abundance of experience.
The Roos may climb out of the cellar and get the joy they’re craving. But it will only come after a lot of pain.
West Coast have so far stayed clear the massive list culls. Josh Kennedy and Jack Redden retired at the end of 2022 and Willie Rioli moved to Port Adelaide. Shannon Hurn, Nic Naitanui and Luke Shuey then retired last season. But the club still has eight players over the age of 29 on the list who can pass on their experience to the youngsters.
Will that move help to fast track the talented youngsters? Elliot Yeo has done a great job of working with Harley Reid and Reuben Ginbey. Having Jeremy McGovern and Tom Barrass in the backline has eased pressure on young defenders.
Whether this approach will lift West Coast back up the ladder remains to be seen. But fans are already happier that their team is not getting constantly thrashed. Adam Simpson isn’t answering questions about his job either.
We only have to look back to the launch of Gold Coast and Greater Western Sydney to see how hard it is to build success with a stack of kids.
Gold Coast have never played a final despite having 23 top-10 picks since their first draft in 2010. The Giants made a point of recruiting experienced players to teach their draftees.
Chad Cornes, Luke Power, James McDonald and Dean Brogan were all over the age of 32 and no longer required by their clubs. But the Giants saw the value of having experience to teach their youngsters both during games and at training.
Re-building sucks. It takes too long to climb the ladder. We can only hope that clubs will stop making the conscious choice to make savage cuts to their lists.
The reality is, most of the people making those decisions will pay the price for the lack of success and then a new group of people will pick up the pieces.
Then they’ll rely on players being patient enough to remain with the club when instead of accepting offers from clubs that are already in contention.
The scorched earth policy can work. But history tells us it requires a hell of a lot of pain which could probably be avoided.