Packers (2-3) at Broncos (1-5)
When: 2:25 p.m. MT, Sunday
Where: Empower Field at Mile High
Radio/TV: 850 AM, 94.1 FM/CBS
Broncos-Packers series: Broncos are 6-7-1 in 14 regular-season games dating back to 1971; the Broncos lost 27-16 in the last meeting, on Sept. 22, 2019, in Green Bay, and have lost four of the last five matchups against the Packers.
In the spotlight
Whether Broncos Country likes it or not, head coach Sean Payton is not ready to wave the white flag just yet. At 1-5 with the worst defense in football and an inconsistent offense, Payton has vowed to fight tooth and nail to dig his team out of the hole they have put themselves in.
Even though the odds are stacked against Denver, Payton remains optimistic that the Broncos can turn it around. Could this be typical coach speak? Sure, but Payton’s hope is inspired by last year’s Detroit Lions team that started the season 1-6 before winning eight of their last 10 games and finishing 9-8.
That momentum has carried into 2023, as Detroit is one of the best teams in football with a 5-1 record.
“You keep fighting,” Payton said. “There’s a grit element involved. Some mental toughness (is) involved. Pretty soon, here they are at the end of the season.”
Could the Broncos pull off a similar turnaround? Their schedule doesn’t make it easy. After Sunday’s game against Green Bay, they face the Chiefs at home and the Bills on the road after the bye week. They still have to play the Chargers twice, an elite Browns defense and the Lions. But anything is possible, and that’s the mentality Payton is taking.
“We’re kind of in that position. We’re bowing up, and we have to,” he said.
If Denver wants to save its season, winning at Mile High is step one. The Broncos are 0-3 at Empower Field, with each loss coming against winnable opponents. The Packers might be one-point favorites, but they have struggled offensively under starting quarterback Jordan Love.
In each home loss to the Raiders, Commanders and Jets, the Broncos held a lead before watching it flip by the time the game clock hit zero.
At some point, enough is enough.
“I say it every week, and it’s frustrating, but it’s important (to win at home),” safety Justin Simmons said. “You just gotta get back in the win column. It’s been tough, but we really want to give the fans a home win.”
Who has the edge?
When Broncos run
How deeply embedded is the run game into Denver’s offensive DNA? So far, not so much. The Broncos are fourth in yards per attempt (4.9) but only 19th in yards per game (106), and they only have one rushing touchdown. Javonte Williams has shown flashes of his pre-injury self, but when will he do it consistently? The good news is Green Bay has allowed 143.4 rushing yards a game — fifth-most in the NFL. Edge: Even
When Broncos pass
Last week in Kansas City wasn’t pretty. Quarterback Russell Wilson threw two interceptions, and the offensive line struggled to provide protection. Now, wide receiver Jerry Jeudy is standing up to critics, who he claims spend more time looking at his stats than watching his film. The Packers have held opposing quarterbacks to an 84.8 passer rating. Edge: Packers
When Packers run
Green Bay has struggled running the ball, averaging 81.6 yards per game. Part of that is due to starting running back Aaron Jones missing three games due to a hamstring injury. Denver hasn’t been great at stopping the run but held the Chiefs to 96 yards on the ground. Call that progress. Edge: Broncos
When Packers pass
The Jordan Love era in Green Bay isn’t off to a good start. The third-year quarterback has recorded five interceptions in the last two games, including three against Las Vegas in Week 5. The Broncos are 29th in pressures with 37. Denver hopes the possible return of outside linebacker Baron Browning (knee) could add more juice to the pass rush. He was a full participant at practice on Wednesday and Thursday. Edge: Broncos
Special teams
The Packers are one of six teams in the league to sport a perfect field goal percentage, as kicker Anders Carlson is 7 for 7. The Packers are 25th in punt return yards allowed (145) and kick return yards allowed (192). Rookie wide receiver Marvin Mims Jr. averaged 15 yards on two punt returns in the loss to Kansas City. Kicker Wil Lutz has converted six straight field goal attempts. Edge: Broncos
Coaching
Packers head coach Matt LaFleur is leading a young team that has lost three of its last four games. Although Denver’s defense has made some strides, allowing one touchdown on 10 red zone trips in the last two games, the offense continues to be inconsistent. Sean Payton’s tenure in Denver has been a mess thus far, and fans already have their eyes set on the 2024 NFL draft. Edge: Even
Tale of the tape
| Broncos | Packers | |
|---|---|---|
| Total offense | 306.3 (21st) | 281.6 (28th) |
| Rush offense | 106 (19th) | 81.6 (27th) |
| Pass offense | 200.3 (20th) | 200.0 (21st) |
| Points per game | 21.5 (18th) | 22.6 (13th) |
| Total Defense | 440.3 (32nd) | 337.8 (17th) |
| Run defense | 172.3 (32nd) | 143.4 (28th) |
| Pass defense | 268 (30th) | 194.4 (9th) |
| Points allowed | 33.3 (32nd) | 22.6 (22nd) |
*Stats from 2023
By the numbers
6.6: Average number of yards per rush for rookie running back Jaleel McLaughlin this season.
29: Targets wide receiver Jerry Jeudy has this season.
6: Takeaways by Denver’s defense has, ranking 20th in the league.
14: Passing touchdowns allowed by the Broncos defense. Most in the NFL.
Bet on it
Line: Packers -1
At some point, the Broncos are going to have to get a win at home. It will most likely happen on Sunday, as Denver will carry a solid defensive performance against Kansas City into this matchup with the Packers.
Prop bet: Over/under 44.5
Take the over. The Broncos will have a much better offensive performance against Green Bay. Don’t expect Denver to hold Jordan Love and company to single-digit scoring, as the Packers will make things interesting. This will be a close one.
Post predictions
Parker Gabriel, beat writer: Broncos 24, Packers 23
Denver’s 0-3 at home as a betting favorite, so what better time for Sean Payton’s first win at Empower Field than against a mediocre-at-best Green Bay team that enters as a one-point favorite? With Kansas City and Buffalo sandwiched around the bye week, this is the Broncos’ last best chance at a win before folks start their Thanksgiving menu planning. They’ll have a good chance at getting it if Justin Simmons and company take the ball away from Jordan Love a couple times.
Ryan McFadden, beat writer: Broncos 24, Packers 21
Denver’s defense will carry its performance against Kansas City into Sunday. And yes, the Broncos’ run game will finally get going. It won’t be the prettiest game but Denver will get the job done at home.
Mark Kiszla, columnist: Broncos 27, Packers 13
I think it was Albert Einstein who once said, “Even the sun shines on a donkey’s rump some days.” Or something like that. In the NFL, even bad teams have their day. Enjoy this one, Denver. Please don’t let it change your trade deadline strategy.
Sean Keeler, columnist: Packers 24, Broncos 22
Justin Simmons makes a world of difference, but have the Broncos truly solved their box problem? Kansas City managed only 1.7 yards per first-down run in Week 6, which went a long way toward keeping things within reach. On the flip side? The Packers are 8-1 since September 2021 when Aaron Jones carries it 15 times or more. Jones says he feels good, though, which could make Broncos Country feel … not so good.
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