Denver matchups vs. Lions, predictions

Broncos (7-6) at Lions (9-4)

When: 6:15 p.m. MT, Saturday

Where: Ford Field

Radio/TV: 850 AM, 94.1 FM/NFL Network, KMGH-7

Broncos-Lions series: The Broncos are 9-5 in 14 regular-season games dating back to 1971; the Broncos won 38-10 in the last meeting, on Dec. 12, 2021, in Denver, and have won three in a row against the Lions.

In the spotlight

The Chargers faced a third-and-7 with under two minutes left in the second quarter when Broncos cornerback Ja’Quan McMillian delivered a mean hit on backup quarterback Easton Stick, jarring ball to come loose. McMillian recovered the fumble and ran to the end zone for a touchdown, but the score was called back after the play was reviewed and officials ruled it an incomplete pass.

Even though the touchdown didn’t count, Los Angeles was forced to punt after another unsuccessful third-down situation. In Denver’s 24-7 win over the Chargers, the Broncos continued their trend of dominating third-down defense.

Since Week 6, opponents have converted 27.7% of their third-down attempts against the Broncos. In Denver’s seventh win of the season, the defense held the Chargers to 0 for 12 on third down — their worst showing on the “money down” in a game in more than 40 years, according to ESPN.

“I would say it starts with the ability to speed the clock up,” Broncos head coach Sean Payton said. “When we all used to play football in the streets, we’d have a ‘three Mississippi’ or ‘four Mississippi’ rusher. If you can get it to ‘two-and-a-half Mississippi’ — in other words, if he’s having to get rid of the ball quicker — that helps the back end. Between the coverage on the back end and then the ability to speed the clock up for the quarterback.”

Denver’s third-down defense has been stellar in the last three games. The Broncos have held opponents to 6 for 41 (14.6%) on third-down conversions during that span. Even though Denver lost to the Houston Texans in Week 13, the Broncos allowed only four third-down conversions on 16 attempts.

Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph said the team’s defensive success on third down is a mixture of pressure and solid coverage from the secondary. Against the Chargers, the Broncos recorded two sacks on third down. In the first quarter, outside linebacker Baron Browning created pressure on quarterback Justin Herbert before tipping his pass attempt that was intercepted by Jonathon Cooper in the red zone.

“We are just doing it right (and) being exact in our responsibilities,” Joseph said. “The pass rush is pretty good but it’s really just doing things right and having guys who can really cover.”

The challenge this week? Getting that same pass rush with second-year outside linebacker Nik Bonitto unavailable due to a knee injury, and fellow outside linebacker Jonathon Cooper limited in practice.