Much hangs in the balance when the 11-4 Dolphins play the 12-3 Ravens Sunday in Baltimore. The winner of this game may decide who represents the conference in the Super Bowl.
Miami can clinch the AFC East for the first time since 2008 with a win, but if the Dolphins lose and Buffalo beats New England, then the Bills-Dolphins matchup in Week 18 would decide the division.
The Ravens would capture the AFC North with a win in either of their last two games. But if they lose both, the door would be open for the Browns to win the division with two victories.
For the Ravens, who own the best record in the NFL, the mission is simple: They can clinch the No. 1 playoff seed in the AFC with a victory over Miami. If the Dolphins win, they would control their own destiny to the top seed in the conference and give them a 12-win season for the first time since 1990.
Both teams are coming off resounding victories — the Ravens blowing out the 49ers and the Dolphins defeating the Cowboys.
Each team is led by a legit NFL MVP candidate — the Ravens by quarterback Lamar Jackson and the Dolphins by quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.
Tagovailoa threw for 293 yards last week against the Cowboys, which gave him more than 4,000 yards for the season for the first time in his career. It, too, should be noted that the last time Tagovailoa played the Ravens, he threw for a career-high 469 yards and six TDs as the Dolphins rallied from a 21-point fourth-quarter deficit to win 42-38.
That was Week 2 of last season. This game holds much more significance.
Tagovailoa’s 105.4 passer rating is the second-best in the NFL this season, and his top target, receiver Tyreek Hill, has an NFL-best 1,641 yards receiving with 12 touchdowns on 106 receptions.
Both star quarterbacks have a mutual admiration for each other.
“I got a lot of respect for Lamar, the things that he’s done throughout his career,” Tagovailoa told reporters this week. “I can vividly remember when I was in college [and] he reached out to me. He told me I was balling, and I thought that was the one of the coolest things. I think that was the year he won the MVP [in 2019].”
Tagovailoa this week defended his team as a more physical group than its perception, which leans toward finesse because of its speed at the skill positions.
The Miami running game, for example, hasn’t been ranked lower than fifth in the league all season and is averaging 136.4 yards per game and a league-high 5.0 yards per rush.
“You can have speed and you can be physical as well,” Tagovailoa said. “I think that’s what people misunderstand when it comes to our team. They see, yeah, OK, guys are fast. Guys are flying around the field. But look at our runs. Look at everyone that has man blocks, that has crack blocks.”
Miami coach Mike McDaniel, leading up to the Dallas game, was staving off questions about how his team can’t beat teams with a winning record. Now it’s that his group is a finesse team.
“To spend your time worrying about narratives, I would be a stressed-out individual,” McDaniel said this week. “I haven’t checked lately, but I feel like we’re pretty good at stopping the run and running the football. That’s generally not associated with cuteness. Whatever. I mean, there’s always going to be something.”
The Dolphins enter the game with some injury issues at their vaunted skill positions, with No. 2 receiver Jalen Waddle expected to sit with a high ankle sprain. Running backs Raheem Mostert (knee/ankle) and De’Von Achane (toe) were also limited in practice during the week.
Another area where the Dolphins don’t get a lot of attention because their offensive is so prolific is their defense, which has ranked No. 1 in the league since Week 5. The Dolphins league the league in quarterback hits, are second in sacks (a franchise-best 52) and fifth against the run.
Like the Dolphins, the Ravens are coming off a week when they felt disrespected as an underdog to the 49ers. That narrative changed after their 33-19 win.
“I believe we’ve got a bunch of guys who’ve been doubted, a bunch of guys who’ve got things to prove on our team on both sides of the ball,” Jackson said. “So, I believe, anytime we’re the underdogs, we’re going to always rise to the occasion. But we’ve got to stay locked in to do that.
“Keeping a level head is the most important thing for us right now, because now the narrative is changing. It was just, ‘We don’t know about the Ravens.’ Now it’s, ‘Oh, they’re the No. 1 team.’ So, we’re not paying [any] mind to that. I feel like that’s bait. We’re trying to make it to February, so we’re going to take it a game at a time.”