If you’ve engaged in any bar talk regarding potential NHL playoff scenarios throughout the course of this season, you probably discussed the likelihood of a matchup between the Rangers and Panthers.
Well, here we are as the two kingpins of their respective divisions gear up for the Eastern Conference finals, facing each other in the postseason for the first time since 1997.
There isn’t much that separates them on paper; you can look at the first two rounds of play and praise both Florida and New York for elite goaltending, balanced scoring depth and defensive accountability.
But it’s the on-ice identities that are sure to create the space between over the next couple of weeks.
The defending conference champion Panthers are -142 favorites at FanDuel to clinch the series.
Maybe that has something to do with recency bias; maybe it’s because of the fire-wagon brand of hockey that Paul Maurice — who is the fourth-winningest coach of all time and still without a Stanley Cup on his résumé — ingrained into this team.
It’s exhausting to play 60 minutes against Florida. It’s an all-hands-on-deck group that executes a tight-checking approach and caps opposing scoring chances. Florida initiates swift zone exits and keeps opponents on their heels with strong puck possession by scraping for puck battles and, in turn, commanding five-on-five flow.
That sounds familiar though.
The only team that was better than Florida in shot attempt differential at even strength during the regular season was the Hurricanes. The Rangers proved they can hang with the toughest defensive challenge in the game, get out-chanced and prevail by exploiting it with its burgeoning special teams.
Of course, there was the exception of Carolina’s vanishing penalty kill that helped, but the Panthers were the second-most penalized team in both the regular season and so far through the playoffs. They only conceded one power-play goal against the Bruins on 16 opportunities, however, Boston never could strike consistency on the man-advantage all year long anyway.
The Blueshirts went 3-for-12 against Florida in their three regular-season meetings and are cashing in at a 31.4 percent rate so far in 10 playoff games. The outlaw approach Sam Bennett and Matthew Tkachuk patrol the ice with should come with more consequences than usual.
The Panthers’ aptitude for penalties is a result of being the most vicious club in hockey. They led the league in hits and sparked abundances of extracurriculars between whistles.
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Standing ground has been part of the Rangers’ blueprint since Chris Drury took over the front office three years ago. If anything, their line brawl with the Devils in April was the culmination of that pursuit, proving that the Rangers are more than capable of getting their hands dirty.
You could say that Artemi Panarin’s memorable season was a major reliance for the Rangers’ success in contrast to a lineup that featured a more balanced production between Tkachuk, Sam Reinhart and Aleksander Barkov.
That hasn’t been the case through the last month for the Rangers though. They have five players that are registering at least one point per game, with Vincent Trocheck and Chris Kreider having answered cosmic-sized bells.
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Sergei Bobrovsky’s comeback in goal has been uplifting. He’s playing with some of the same swagger he earned his contract with, but it’s all really just a novelty when you put it in perspective with Igor Shesterkin’s game.
Sheskterkin is saving 6.2 more goals above expected than Bobrovsky. He’s also rejecting 2.1 percent more of shots on goal, while having faced 60 more of them in one less game played.
The Rangers lost the first two meetings of the regular season before starting to decrypt the Panthers in the final contest on March 23. They sealed a 4-3 victory by seizing puck control in the third period and finding shooting lanes to the net.
Florida was the only team left in the NHL that the Rangers hadn’t beaten prior to that and they should be the last team they defeat to reach the Stanley Cup Final.
Whether it’s the “Presidents’ Trophy curse” or whether it’s oddsmakers simply underestimating the Rangers’ capacity against another stiff adversary, I say keep the value coming.
BET: Rangers to win series (+118, FanDuel)