The year 2024 will see key elections in a number of large and geopolitically significant polities such as Russia, India, Indonesia, South Korea and Taiwan, but the US presidential race will have by far the biggest impact on Japanese policymakers.
If Donald Trump, the outspoken former US president who had little interest in prioritising security alliances during his tenure, returns to the White House, Japan could be forced to deal with a militarily emboldened China and North Korea, with reduced US engagement in the region, experts in diplomacy and security believe.
Against the backdrop of a potential weakening of the US role in containing China’s military rise and a buoyed North Korea operating with fewer inhibitions in a multipolar world order, Tokyo will face greater pressure to demonstrate the benefits of Japan-US security ties, while understanding it is more important than ever to bolster its defence capabilities, the experts added.
Prospects are growing that incumbent Democrat President Joe Biden and Trump will face off at the November 5 election in a rematch of the 2020 race, with the latter maintaining a comfortable lead in media polls for the Republican primary vote.
“If Trump becomes the president, he would return to his ‘America first’ policies and pursue them more vigorously by forming his administration only with his supporters,” said Tetsuo Kotani, an international security expert at Meikai University.
In a departure from Trump’s first administration which ran from 2017 to 2021 and had “decent” people who saw a need to strengthen the Japan-US alliance and US defence posture in the Indo-Pacific region, Kotani believes “we would see weakening US commitment to defending” Japan in a second term.
During the four-year term, Trump stuck to his criticism of the alliance with Tokyo as unfair and one-sided, since their bilateral security treaty promises US support if Japan is attacked but does not oblige Japan’s Self-Defence Forces to reciprocate.
Threatening to end alliances, the businessman-turned-president called on Washington’s allies, including South Korea and Nato members, to pay their “fair share,” namely, more money for hosting the US military.
In recent years, Japan has strengthened its alliance with the United States and security ties with like-minded countries such as Australia and South Korea to enhance deterrence against Beijing’s provocative military activities in the East China Sea, including near Taiwan.
A contingency involving the self-governed democratic island is a particularly concerning prospect for Japan, given the proximity of its southwestern islands to the territory, including the Diaoyu Islands, which Japan calls the Senkaku Islands.
Biden has spoken of his nation’s commitment to defending Taiwan, seen by China as a breakaway province to be brought into its fold, but Washington officially maintains a policy of “strategic ambiguity” that keeps its options open in the event of a Chinese attack.
Conversely, Trump has been evasive when questioned on whether the US would get involved militarily in a Taiwan contingency.
Kotani pointed out the possibility that Trump could even be willing to use Taiwan as a bargaining chip in a “deal” with China, reflecting how little he values the island’s “strategic importance”.
“For example, he may make a proposal that the US commit to never interfering in the Taiwan issue if China makes some concessions on disputes related to trade or technology,” he said.
Given North Korea’s missile and nuclear programmes and military collaboration with China and Russia during Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, Kotani said Japan was now in one of the world’s most challenging security environments, making the alliance with the US all the more important.
“But it is not a factor to be considered at all in Trump’s mind,” he said.
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Japan’s military holds drill on island potentially vulnerable to China
Japan’s military holds drill on island potentially vulnerable to China
Kazuhiro Maeshima, a professor at Sophia University, said Japan would not be able to rely on the US any longer when designing its Indo-Pacific security policy unless Washington showed clear commitment to the defence of Taiwan.
“If Trump wins, an enormous challenge would await Japan” which would make it necessary to be strident in convincing his administration of the worth of the bilateral alliance, said Maeshima, a specialist in American politics and foreign policy.
Maeshima added Japan should “stress that it has done as much as possible” to strengthen the alliance and emphasise the significance of its recent policy manoeuvres, such as revising its key security policy documents and relaxing regulations on defence equipment exports.
Japan to sell missiles to US in ‘really welcome’ easing of arms export rules
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In late 2022, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s government pledged to obtain “counterstrike capabilities” to destroy targets in enemy territory, and almost double Japan’s annual defence spending to 2 per cent of its gross domestic product in five years in the revised National Security Strategy.
The government also lifted a ban on exporting domestically-produced, foreign-licensed lethal weapons to countries where licensers are based, by amending stringent arms export rules in December.
As the first instance of the eased regulations coming into action, Tokyo was quick to decide to provide the US with US-developed Patriot surface-to-air guided missiles made in Japan following a request from Washington.
Meanwhile, Tatsuhiko Yoshizaki, chief economist at the Sojitz Research Institute, said Japan could learn from its past “successful experiences” seen under the administration of former leader Shinzo Abe.
Abe, Japan’s longest-serving prime minister who led the nation for one year from 2006 and again from 2012 until 2020, built a strong personal relationship with Trump. He was fatally shot during an election campaign speech in western Japan in July 2022.
Yoshizaki, well-versed in US and international economic and political issues, said Abe managed to keep the Japan-US alliance stable “because he explained its importance from the viewpoint of its cost-effectiveness”, instead of principles such as the rule of law, when he met Trump.
For Japan, “Abe’s approach should be helpful” in managing a second Trump term, he added.