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How Spot Bitcoin ETFs May Elevate BTC Price By 74% After Launch
Crypto investment firm Galaxy Digital’s models predict that spot Bitcoin ETFs could fetch at least $14.4 billion in the first year after launch. The inflows could increase to approximately $27 billion in the second year and $39 billion in the third year, Galaxy said in the Tuesday research report.
“The U.S. wealth management industry will likely be the most addressable and direct market that would have the most net new accessibility from an approved Bitcoin ETF,” the note read. “As of October 2023, assets managed by broker-dealers ($27 trillion), banks ($11 trillion) and RIAs ($9 trillion) collectively totaled $48.3 trillion.”
Crypto market investors have been eagerly waiting for a spot Bitcoin ETF for over a decade. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has blocked applications for such an investment vehicle at every turn over concerns of market manipulation. But recent regulatory developments and broader institutional adoption of BTC as a new asset class have analysts now saying a spot ETF is closer than ever before.
A false report last week propelled Bitcoin 10% higher in the span of hours, whilst the discovery of BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF, iBTC, on the Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation (DTCC) list caused an 11% BTC pump on Monday.
As such, Galaxy Digital estimates that the inflows could catalyze a 74.1% Bitcoin price increase in the first year after spot ETFs debut in the U.S. market.
Galaxy: 3 Reasons 2024 Is Going To Be A Big Year For Bitcoin
However, Galaxy notes that the estimates are not set in stone as they did not factor in “second-order effects” of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval.
“In the near term, we expect other global/international markets to follow the US in approving + offering similar bitcoin ETF offerings to a wider population of investors. In addition to ETF offerings, a wide range of other investment vehicles are likely to add bitcoin to their strategies (e.g., mutual funds, closed-end, and private funds, etc.) — across investment objectives and strategies,” Galaxy explained.
Looking ahead, Galaxy Digital researchers believe 2024 is poised to be a big year for Bitcoin owing to ETF inflows, market optimism regarding the April 2024 Bitcoin halving, and the “possibility that rates have peaked or will peak in the near term.”