In just one week, the hotly anticipated presidential and legislative elections in Taiwan will be finished, and the choice of the self-ruled island’s voters will finally be known.
Candidates of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), Beijing-friendly Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) are vying for the top job, following years of strained cross-strait relations since Tsai Ing-wen of the independence-leaning DPP was first elected president in 2016. Voters will also be electing a new legislative body.
The stakes are particularly high, as the crucial election on January 13 is poised to shape cross-strait relations as well as bilateral ties between mainland China and the United States.
The DPP candidate, Vice-President William Lai Ching-te, is currently ahead in the polls, ahead of KMT’s Hou Yu-ih and TPP’s Ko Wen-je. The KMT, though, has a slight lead in the polls for the 133 legislative seats.
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Taiwan election exposes generational rift over potential reunification with mainland China
Taiwan election exposes generational rift over potential reunification with mainland China
In the lead-up to the widely watched election, presidential candidates have been scrambling to assure voters that they are the best choice to achieve cross-strait peace. Tensions have been high as Beijing has stepped up military, political and economic pressure on the self-ruled island, particularly over the past year.
Who is running in Taiwan’s presidential race and what does it mean for Beijing?
Who is running in Taiwan’s presidential race and what does it mean for Beijing?
Lai’s ticket with Hsiao Bi-Khim, Taiwan’s former de facto ambassador to the US, has been hailed by DPP lawmakers as a “perfect match” that has boosted the chance of victory.
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Taiwan’s presidential front runner Lai Ching-te picks de facto envoy to US as running mate
Taiwan’s presidential front runner Lai Ching-te picks de facto envoy to US as running mate
Beijing views Taiwan as part of China which must be reunited, by force if necessary. Most countries, including the US, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state, but Washington is opposed to any attempt to take the self-governed island by force and is committed to arm Taiwan.
Why Taiwan arms sales, in place for decades, still spark US-China tensions
Why Taiwan arms sales, in place for decades, still spark US-China tensions
Despite restrictions, observers and academics will be closely following these results to see how the important and complex relationships across the Taiwan Strait, and beyond, will change over the next four years.
60-Second Catch-up
Deep dives
Ballot power: 2024 elections could steer global relations for years to come
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The world’s democracies will hold more than 60 national elections this year, a number that will not be reached again until 2048
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The US vote has greatest import for relations with China, but so do those in Taiwan, Indonesia, India and Mexico, among others
The year 2023 was marked by an escalating rivalry between China and the US-led West, compounded by growing fears of conflict over Taiwan, military tensions in the South China Sea, Russia’s continued invasion of Ukraine, and a new Middle East war between Israel and Hamas.
So the new year is saddled with a bitterly divided geopolitical landscape, complicated international cooperation on climate change, economics, trade and technology, as well as a dangerous arms race. And with a packed election calendar, 2024 could be a true global inflection point.
Can US and China give each other the reassurances they want on Taiwan?
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The coming summit between Xi Jinping and Joe Biden offers an opportunity to lower the temperature on a highly sensitive topic
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January’s elections in Taiwan could create further volatility because Beijing views front runner William Lai as a ‘troublemaker through and through’
Meeting in Bali last year, Chinese President Xi Jinping told his US counterpart Joe Biden that Taiwan was “the first red line” that must not be crossed.
How Taiwanese presidential candidates’ US tours helped ‘clear misperceptions’
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DPP, KMT and TPP candidates have visited the US in recent weeks, meeting informally with foreign-policy makers and officials
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DPP’s William Lai played down his independence rhetoric while KMT’s Hou played up support for a strong military, analysts say
With military tensions in the Taiwan Strait and around the island reaching unprecedented levels, their audiences were mostly looking for assurances from the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate that he would not declare independence; from the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) candidate, they wanted to know that he would not work to appease Beijing.
Halting tariff cuts mainland China’s ‘early warning’ ahead of Taiwan election
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Twelve products from Taiwan under the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) will be affected from January 1
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But analysts say the price of commodities is around 0.5 to 2 per cent of the total exports from Taiwan to mainland China
Beijing has sent an early warning against possible economic fallout should Taiwan’s election result next month lead to a further deterioration of ties, analysts said, as mainland China suspended tariff reductions on several Taiwanese products under a landmark trade-deal on Thursday.
Imports of 12 products from Taiwan, including propylene and paraxylene, covered by the cross-strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) would be affected from January 1, according to the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council.
Xi says Taiwan unification will ‘surely’ happen as he marks Mao anniversary
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The Chinese president leads a ceremony honouring the former leader at Tiananmen Square in Beijing on Tuesday
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Xi tells event to mark Mao’s 130th birthday that ‘complete reunification of our motherland is a righteous cause’
“The complete reunification of our motherland is an overall trend, a righteous cause, and the common aspiration of the people. Our motherland must be reunified, and it will surely be reunified,” Xi said in his speech delivered at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.
Taiwan election hopeful Lai says KMT’s embrace of ‘one China’ is dividing island
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Vice-president and DPP candidate suggests a win for his main rival, Hou Yu-ih, could spell disaster
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Lai says Kuomintang used to be anti-communist but senior figures are now trying to placate Beijing
Global Impact is a weekly curated newsletter featuring a news topic originating in China with a significant macro impact for our newsreaders around the world.