After 24 hours of fast-breaking and often contradictory actions by both Hamas and Israel’s government, a ceasefire in their catastrophic seven-month war still feels distant.
Yet a flurry of diplomatic activity could put the two sides closer to a deal than they’ve been in months.
When the news broke Monday afternoon that Hamas’s leadership in Qatar had agreed to the terms of an Egyptian-brokered ceasefire, Israel’s government appeared caught off-guard.
The immediate reaction from Israeli media commentators was that it was a “trap” — not a sincere gesture, but rather a ploy to shift the blame for the failure of a ceasefire onto Israel.
Hamas’s negotiators had reportedly spent the day in Doha, Qatar, with Egyptian and Qatari mediators, and the “deal” they accepted came out of those discussions — which didn’t include Israel.
Unnamed senior Israeli government officials told Reuters the conditions proposed by Hamas were unacceptable in their current form.
WATCH | Israel launches airstrikes in Rafah as Hamas accepts mediated ceasefire deal:
Israel has launched new airstrikes in Rafah, warning 100,000 people there to flee to a designated safe area ahead of an expected ground operation. The strikes came after Hamas agreed to a mediated ceasefire proposal but Israel did not.
It was unclear what the deal entailed until Tuesday morning, when several international media outlets published details of what Hamas had reportedly agreed to. The terms included Israel initially halting the war for 42 days, followed by the release of hundreds of Palestinian detainees, along with freedom for some of the hostages held in Gaza.
The number of hostages Hamas suggested it would release — 33 — is reportedly lower than the 40 Israel had demanded. The Palestinian militant group also proposed reaching that number by including the bodies of some of the hostages who have died while in captivity.
Hostages at heart of ceasefire discussion
It’s unclear how many of the estimated 134 hostages are still alive, but in February, Israel said it believed at least 31 had perished after more than seven months of harsh conditions in captivity.
Last week, Hamas released so-called proof of life videos for several hostages, including their heart-wrenching pleas for Israel’s government to agree to Hamas’s conditions for sending them home.
In response to Hamas’s agreement to a supposed deal on Monday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office released a statement dismissing the move and vowing that its long-anticipated invasion of the southern Gaza city of Rafah — where more than 1.3 million people have sought shelter from the war — would proceed.
The goal, said the statement, was “to exert military pressure on Hamas to advance the release of our hostages.”
The United Nations, the European Union and a multitude of human rights groups have warned that an Israeli invasion of the Rafah area will be a “bloodbath” and will tip the already dire hunger and humanitarian crisis in the territory into a catastrophic new phase.
The United States — Israel’s largest political and military benefactor — has also said it is opposed to Israel expanding the war into Rafah, and has reportedly held up a recent shipment of ammunition as a warning not to proceed.
But by Tuesday morning, video on social media showed an Israeli tank ploughing over a “Welcome to Gaza” sign at Rafah’s border with Egypt, and the Israeli Defence Forces released a statement saying Israel has now taken over full control of the key border crossing.
Palestinian officials in Gaza said the closure of the border crossing will cause a major disruption for food and humanitarian supplies entering the territory. Aid agencies say the northern part of the enclave is already experiencing famine.
It’s unclear, however, if the Israeli military action in Rafah represents the beginning of a large ground operation or a more limited incursion designed to put political pressure on Hamas.
Protests against Netanyahu
In a statement Tuesday, Hamas accused Israel of trying to scuttle the ceasefire talks by moving on Rafah.
The families of the remaining hostages held by Hamas and other militant groups in Gaza desperately want their loved ones released. Their nightly protests outside Benjamin Netanyahu’s residence and across Tel Aviv have grown increasingly aggressive and violent.
In a statement addressing the Netanyahu government, the families wrote: “At this crucial moment, while a tangible opportunity for the release of the hostages is on the table, it is of the utmost importance that your government manifest its strong support for such an agreement.”
Alon Pinkas, a former senior Israeli diplomat, says Netanyahu will have to choose between his own political survival by continuing the war against Hamas at the cost of the hostages or getting at least some of them back and risking the collapse of his coalition government.
“He is pressured by the public to do this deal,” Pinkas told CBC News. “The counter-pressure are the extreme right-wing coalition partners who want the war to go on, who think the operation in Gaza is more important than the lives of those hostages.”
In Gaza, initial word of a possible ceasefire deal was met with widespread jubilation in Rafah, amid hope that an Israeli attack had been averted.
“We were wondering where we would go. We have no shelter or anywhere to go to, but thank God, I was happy to hear this news,” Umm Ahmed Al-Masry told a freelance producer working for CBC News on Monday. “The feeling is indescribable.”
The celebrations were short-lived, however, as Israeli flares soon lit up the sky and signalled that its military was once again on the move and the ceasefire would not happen.
‘A glimmer of hope’
Israeli aircraft struck targets in the crowded city repeatedly overnight, but it was not clear immediately how many were killed.
More than 34,000 Palestinians, most of them civilians, have been killed in the conflict, the Gaza Health Ministry said.
“It’s been terrifying and traumatic,” said Louise Wateridge, a spokesperson for the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), who is in Rafah.
“There was an hour of celebration,” she told CBC News, before it became clear a truce would not happen.
“This trauma has sent shockwaves in the community because there was so much hope and expectations of a potential ceasefire.”
It does appear, however, that at the very least the negotiations between Israel and Hamas, which had appeared to have collapsed, are now back on, with a mid-level Israeli team set to arrive in Cairo to assess the Hamas position.
Sharone Lifschitz, the daughter of one of the hostages, made a powerful statement on the BBC’s Today radio program on Tuesday.
“There’s a glimmer of hope, and it feels that it’s gone further than other rounds of negotiation, and that’s good,” she said. “But I’m not altogether hopeful. I think that there [are] extremists on both sides that can derail [a deal].”
At a series of media briefings in Washington, D.C., on Monday, U.S. officials said they continue to believe a deal between Hamas and Israel is still possible and must be concluded.
Far harder to determine is how sincere the two sides are about getting a resolution — or whether the talks are more about not wanting to be seen as the side that scuttles them, said Pinkas, the Israeli political analyst.
“It’s all been about a blame game,” he said.