Vice President Kamala Harris is leading former President Donald Trump by 25 points in her home state, a new poll of California voters on the presidential race found, building on the 18-point lead that President Biden had over Trump in February, with gains in popularity among young, independent and Black voters.
The latest Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll was conducted between July 31 and August 11 and surveyed more than 3,000 likely California voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. The poll, released Wednesday and among the first major public polls in the state since President Joe Biden dropped out of the 2024 race July 21, compares current results to those Berkeley IGS collected in February.
The poll shows that traditionally Democratic subgroups where Biden was “underperforming” are “returning to Harris,” said Berkeley IGS Poll Director Mark DiCamillo.
California, where Democrats outnumber Republicans two to one in voter registration, is friendly turf for Harris, an Oakland native who represented the state in the U.S. Senate, and isn’t considered a competitive state in the presidential race.
Harris has gained the largest jump in support from young voters, a group that includes more voters of color. Californians ages 18-29 polled 50% for Biden in February and 73% for Harris in August, a 23-point increase.
California youth in February took issue with Biden’s age and “didn’t see him as a viable candidate,” DiCamillo said. Now, almost three-fourths of the demographic supports Harris, with 22% backing Trump and 5% undecided.
“It bodes well for Harris,” DiCamillo said. “Biden was certainly not embraced by the youth of California.”
Platforms like TikTok, where people have posted supportive content of Harris to popular music and internet jokes, have played a large role in young voters’ approval of Harris, said Melissa Michelson, political science professor at Menlo College.
“Younger folks are not only excited to not have an octogenarian be the person they have to think about voting for,” Michelson said. But also “when Charli XCX says Kamala Harris is ‘brat,’ that makes Kamala Harris more attractive to them as a candidate.”
“Brat” is the name of British artist Charli XCX’s recent viral album, which has gained widespread popularity on TikTok. Users of the app often use “brat” as a synonym for rebellious, defiant or bold.
Harris received support from 74% with Black voters, a gain of 16 points. Black voters in February polled at 58% for Biden, a “relatively low” number, DiCamillo said. Latino voter support for Harris increased by 10 points, from 48 to 58%.
The percentage of overall undecided voters shrunk by half since February, from 14% to 7% overall. Such a high percentage of undecided voters in February was “unusual” for a race between well-known candidates, DiCamillo said.
“The electorate was less enthusiastic,” DiCamillo said. “They had a more difficult time deciding.”
Overall, the undecided voters shifted their support to the Harris campaign. But Asian and Pacific Islander voters, who polled at 22% undecided in February, were divided more evenly. Harris gained 9 points among the group and Trump gained 8 as the percentage of undecided voters shrank to 5%.
Harris, the first Black and South Asian woman to hold a major political party’s presidential nomination, also saw a considerable boost in image ratings, from 48% in January to 58% favorable ratings in early August.
Over half of California voters find that Harris’s identity as a woman of color provides her an advantage in the election, while only 15% view it as a disadvantage. This positive view of Harris’s identity is most prevalent among registered Democrats (71%) and Black voters (63%).
“Voters are likely to assume that somebody who shares an identity with them shares their values unless they find out otherwise,” Michelson said.
Harris’s pick for running mate, Tim Walz, also polled favorably among Democrats. Though Walz might not appeal to the same groups as Harris, he’s successfully connected with different groups because of his policy positions and his history of community involvement, Michelson said. She highlighted Walz’s background as an educator, union member and LGBTQ+ ally. Walz also served 24 years in the Army National Guard.
“It’s not just race, it’s not just sexual identity,” Michelson said. “There is something about sharing a strong identity with a candidate that makes people more likely to support them, more likely to turn out to vote, more likely to donate and to volunteer.”
Both overall support for Trump and his image ratings remained stable at 34% overall, with Republican support rising to 90% from 87% in February.
“He’s probably still got the same voters,” DiCamillo said.
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