Chiefs (6-1) at Broncos (2-5)
When: 2:25 p.m. MT, Sunday
Where: Empower Field at Mile High
Radio/TV: 850 AM, 94.1 FM/CBS
Broncos-Opponent series: Broncos are 54-72 in 126 regular-season games dating back to 1960; the Broncos lost 19-8 in the last meeting, on Oct. 12 in Kansas City, and have lost 16 in a row to their rival.
In the spotlight
Jaleel McLaughlin had Green Bay Packers linebacker Quay Walker shaken. In the first quarter of last week’s 19-17 win, the Broncos rookie running back didn’t just cut back once but twice, as Walker was put on skates while McLaughlin burst up the middle for an 11-yard gain.
In the third quarter, third-year back Javonte Williams showed off his rejuvenated legs, as he steamrolled across the field for a 21-yard run.
This season, the Broncos haven’t run the ball consistently. But when they do, Williams and McLaughlin’s ability to create explosive plays has been noticeable. As McLaughlin continues to grow comfortable as a pro and Williams inches closer to 100% health, this duo could allow Denver to be the “physical, running football team” players and coaches talked about in August.
“All three of our running backs are doing a great job (including Samaje Perine),” right guard Quinn Meinrez said. “It’s been a lot of fun blocking for everyone.”
Against the Packers, Williams ran for 82 yards on 15 carries and had three rushes for 10-plus yards. McLaughlin had two rushes that exceeded 10 yards, including a 23-yard gain in the second quarter.
According to Pro Football Focus, Williams and McLaughlin have combined for 14 explosive runs in 2023. Williams is tied with quarterback Russell Wilson for a team-best of eight.
Denver’s run blocking has been essential for these big gains. The Broncos’ offensive line is second in the league in run block win rate, according to ESPN Analytics.
“Offensive lines in general love running the ball,” Meinrez said. “It was good that we had a bunch called (against Green Bay) and maybe force a few more run calls (in the future).”
The key for the Broncos moving forward is sticking with the run game, as they are 24th in the league in rushing attempts. Head coach Sean Payton said the decision on how many times they should run the ball is one of the things that had him circling a Sushi restaurant last Sunday night after his team’s win over the Packers.
“There are people that believe you throw it in the first half, run it in the second half (to) secure wins and all those things,” Payton said. “We do sequence studies, but there’s a part of you that’s trusting your instincts relative to how it’s going.”
Who has the edge?
When Broncos run
The Broncos are making progress in the run game. Javonte Williams had his best game of the season last week against the Packers, helping Denver rush for a season-best 145 yards on 25 attempts. Russell Wilson has been solid at carrying the ball, averaging 7.4 yards per attempt. The Chiefs have allowed just two rushing touchdowns all season. Edge: Broncos
When Broncos pass
The Chiefs had Wilson in a torture chamber two weeks ago. Denver’s starting quarterback was picked off twice and sacked four times on a brutal Thursday Night Football game. Wide receiver Courtland Sutton has recorded a touchdown reception in four of the last five games. Kansas City is fourth in quarterback hits (53) and seventh in sacks (22). Edge: Chiefs
When Chiefs run
Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco has averaged 49.6 yards in the last three games while Kansas City hasn’t recorded 100 rushing yards in a game since Week 4. The Broncos were solid at containing Kansas City’s run game in the previous matchup, holding the Chiefs to 96 yards on the ground. Linebacker Alex Singleton has a team-best 20 tackles on run plays, according to Pro Football Focus. Edge: Even
When Chiefs pass
Patrick Mahomes balled out against the Chargers last week, throwing for 424 yards, four touchdowns and an interception in a 31-17 win. Tight end Travis Kelce accounted for 179 of those yards on 12 catches, marking his second straight 100-yard game after torching Denver for 124 yards on nine receptions in Week 6. Mahomes has thrown five interceptions in his last three games against the Broncos, including one that Justin Simmons picked off at the goal line two weeks ago. Kansas City’s offensive line has the best pass rush win rate in the NFL, but the Broncos registered two sacks in their last meeting. Edge: Chiefs
Special teams
Broncos kicker Wil Lutz was the hero against the Packers. He went 4 for 4 on field goal attempts and converted the go-ahead 52-yarder in the fourth quarter. Kansas City kicker Harrison Butker has been lights out, going 15 for 15 on field goal attempts this season. He has made two from 50-plus yards. Edge: Even
Coaching
With both teams playing each other twice in three weeks, Sunday should be an interesting chess match between Sean Payton and Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. Kansas City has one of the best defenses in the league and had the upper hand against Denver in Week 6. Head coach Andy Reid has led the Chiefs to a 6-1 record despite a lack of weapons at wide receiver. Edge: Chiefs
Tale of the tape
| Broncos | Chiefs | |
|---|---|---|
| Total offense | 311 (21st) | 396.7 (2nd) |
| Rush offense | 111.6 (17th) | 111.3 (18th) |
| Pass offense | 199.4 (22nd) | 285.4 (2nd) |
| Points per game | 21.1 (19th) | 25.4 (6th) |
| Total Defense | 424.7 (32nd) | 294.6 (7th) |
| Run defense | 167.3 (32nd) | 105.7 (16th) |
| Pass defense | 257.4 (30th) | 188.9 (6th) |
| Points allowed | 31 (32nd) | 15 (2nd) |
By the numbers
133: Average number of rushing yards for the Broncos in the last three games.
9: Interceptions Patrick Mahomes has thrown against the Broncos in 12 career games.
7: Passes defended by cornerback Pat Surtain II this season — tied for fourth-most in the league.
6: Turnovers gained by the defense in the last four games.
Bet on it
Line: Favorite -7.5
The Broncos should put together a better offensive performance than the last time these two teams faced each other. Denver will be motivated to stop the Chiefs at home, but in the end, its losing streak to the reigning Super Bowl champions will continue.
Prop bet: Over/under 45.5
It’s safe to take the under. The game won’t be as low-scoring as the previous matchup but don’t anticipate Kansas City running up the scoreboard either. Denver has played solid defense as of late, so expect that trend to continue.
Post predictions
Parker Gabriel, beat writer: Chiefs 28, Broncos 20
The streak has to end at some point, right? ….. Right? It would be interesting to see what happens if Denver goes into the bye week with back-to-back wins and gets designs of, hey, maybe the impossible is possible. Except Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Chris Jones do care not for the interesting. No. 17 in a row feels imminent, and a Kansas City blowout would be less surprising than a Broncos win. Again.
Ryan McFadden, beat writer: Chiefs 24, Broncos 17
At some point, the Broncos will end their losing streak to the Chiefs. But that will not happen on Sunday. Denver will play with a ton of fire at home and might even convince some that it can pull off an upset. However, Mahomes just figures out ways to make the right play at the right time, so it’s hard to bet against him.
Mark Kiszla, columnist: Chiefs 30, Broncos 14
Why is Sean Payton never happy? It ain’t his dislike of sushi, pal. His football team is further away from competing with K.C. than Payton thought when he took the Broncos gig. With the trade deadline looming, let’s get the rebuild started.
Sean Keeler, columnist: Chiefs 27, Broncos 20
Sell, baby, sell! Russell Wilson’s stat line, head-to-head, in Orange & Blue vs. KC: 0-3, 188.3 passing yards per game, 20 points per loss. Patrick Mahomes’ line vs. Big Russ in Denver: 3-0, 328.7 yards and 26.7 points per victory. The streak will end. But not with this QB. Or this roster.
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